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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Inverse relationship between belief in foom and years worked in commercial software - Less Wrong Discussion
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Long years in software do rigorously teach that complex things take long. Longer than you expect even including this rule. Or don't work at all. This non-proven rule-of-the-thump need not apply to self-optimizing AI but could at least be seen as an effect explaining or at least affecting the judgements of experts.
Added. I realize that this is basically a TLDR of Copla's comment.