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Brian_Tomasik comments on Inverse relationship between belief in foom and years worked in commercial software - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (23)
Good question. :) I don't want to look up exact ages for everyone, but I would guess that this graph would look more like a teepee, since Yudkowsky, Musk, Bostrom, etc. would be shifted to the right somewhat but are still younger than the long-time software veterans.
The subset that you can get birth years off the first page of a google search of their name (n=9), has a pretty clear correlation with younger people believing in harder takeoff. (I'll update if I get time to dig out other's birth years.)
Cool. Another interesting question would be how the views of a single person change over time. This would help tease out whether it's a generational trend or a generic trend with getting older.
In my own case, I only switched to finding a soft takeoff pretty likely within the last year. The change happened as I read more sources outside LessWrong that made some compelling points. (Note that I still agree that work on AI risks may have somewhat more impact in hard-takeoff scenarios, so that hard takeoffs deserve more than their probability's fraction of attention.)
Birth Year vs Foom:
A bit less striking than the famous enough to have Google pop up their birth year subset (green).
This is awesome! Thank you. :) I'd be glad to copy it into my piece if I have your permission. For now I've just linked to it.
Consider it to be public domain.
If you pull the image from it's current location and message me when you add more folks I might even update it. Or I can send you my data if you want to go for a more consistency.