You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

imuli comments on Inverse relationship between belief in foom and years worked in commercial software - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: NancyLebovitz 04 January 2015 03:03PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (23)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: imuli 08 January 2015 08:31:53PM 2 points [-]

The subset that you can get birth years off the first page of a google search of their name (n=9), has a pretty clear correlation with younger people believing in harder takeoff. (I'll update if I get time to dig out other's birth years.)

Comment author: Brian_Tomasik 09 January 2015 02:30:00AM 1 point [-]

Cool. Another interesting question would be how the views of a single person change over time. This would help tease out whether it's a generational trend or a generic trend with getting older.

In my own case, I only switched to finding a soft takeoff pretty likely within the last year. The change happened as I read more sources outside LessWrong that made some compelling points. (Note that I still agree that work on AI risks may have somewhat more impact in hard-takeoff scenarios, so that hard takeoffs deserve more than their probability's fraction of attention.)

Comment author: imuli 13 January 2015 05:09:42PM *  4 points [-]

Birth Year vs Foom:

A bit less striking than the famous enough to have Google pop up their birth year subset (green).

Comment author: Brian_Tomasik 15 January 2015 03:12:51AM 1 point [-]

This is awesome! Thank you. :) I'd be glad to copy it into my piece if I have your permission. For now I've just linked to it.

Comment author: imuli 16 January 2015 04:43:04AM *  1 point [-]

Consider it to be public domain.

If you pull the image from it's current location and message me when you add more folks I might even update it. Or I can send you my data if you want to go for a more consistency.