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JoshuaZ comments on How Islamic terrorists reduced terrorism in the US - Less Wrong Discussion
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If this is correct then we should expect a reduction in Islamic terrorism but I'm not sure what the expected timeline for such a reduction would be.
On some time-scale, yes. But saying when is a bit of a sucker's game. To use the American example: are we still in the '60s or have we passed into the '70s yet or maybe even '80s?
I'd be more confident in predicting that both cults and violence are on a long-term secular decline in South Korea, which seems to be over the hump.
That's a little difficult to say. I think you could probably use per capita GDP to try to pin down when one would expect 'the troubles' to begin, and extrapolate from there. (This would probably yield predictions like: East Asia to continue to quiet down; Middle East and nearby Islamic regions to remain stable in violence; Africa to increase in cults and movements like Boko Haram even as larger-scale violence and disorder decreases.)