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Salemicus comments on How Islamic terrorists reduced terrorism in the US - Less Wrong Discussion

13 Post author: PhilGoetz 11 January 2015 05:19AM

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Comment author: Salemicus 13 January 2015 10:50:33AM 0 points [-]

It is not surprisingly Americo-centric for a post titled "How Islamic terrorists reduced terrorism in the US"... The fall I pointed out for the US after 2000 also happens in a graph for Western Europe, which I would expect, but not for the world as a whole.

If you see the same phenomenon all over the developed world, then it is very likely to have roughly the same causes throughout that class of countries. It is parochial in the extreme to explain that phenomenon in one country solely in terms of causes specific to that country, rather than to causes that could have affected all the countries in the relevant class. Otherwise you are essentially arguing for some staggering co-incidence.

For example, if we are asking why did crime fall in New York in the 1990s, and all your explanations are specific to New York, you are missing key factors. Crime fell across America, and across the developed world. Explanations specific to New York can only explain the difference between New York and the rest of America, and explanations specific to America can only explain the difference between the US and the rest of the developed world, and so on.

So yes, you are being Americo-centric.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 13 January 2015 06:13:23PM *  1 point [-]

I think you should have checked the database, which you obviously didn't, before writing two long replies.

You see the decline after 2000 in the US and in Europe, which are the regions affected by Muslim terrorism (outside of Muslim countries, where this dynamic would not apply). You don't see it in Japan, Russia, India, China, or in Muslim countries. You don't see it in the world overall. This is entirely consistent with my hypothesis; your hypothesis that it is coincidence is the one that requires coincidence.

And, yes, when I write a post that says it's about America, it's going to be Americo-centric. I live in America. It's okay for me to talk about America.

Comment author: Salemicus 14 January 2015 08:39:55PM 1 point [-]

Your replies bear little or no resemblance to what I've written. I never made a hypothesis of 'coincidence,' I never said you shouldn't talk about America, and overall I have to conclude that either I am writing unclearly, or you are misrepresenting me.

In either case, I am disinclined to continue such a conversation.