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advancedatheist comments on The guardian article on longevity research [link] - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: ike 11 January 2015 07:02PM

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Comment author: advancedatheist 11 January 2015 07:23:08PM 4 points [-]

In Palo Alto in the heart of Silicon Valley, hedge fund manager Joon Yun is doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation. According to US social security data, he says, the probability of a 25-year-old dying before their 26th birthday is 0.1%. If we could keep that risk constant throughout life instead of it rising due to age-related disease, the average person would – statistically speaking – live 1,000 years.

I get ~ 1,400 years, as the "half life," but I see what Yun did. And that takes into account that 25 year olds have already gotten most of their risky behavior behind them. Your auto insurance rates dropped when you turned 25 for good empirical reasons.

Of course, these calculations don't mean anything because we don't have anywhere near enough of a baseline yet to make that sort of extrapolation plausible.

Comment author: TrE 11 January 2015 08:26:46PM *  1 point [-]

the probability of a 25-year-old dying before their 26th birthday is 0.1%. If we could keep that risk constant throughout life instead of it rising due to age-related disease, the average person would – statistically speaking – live 1,000 years.

That's just not how the relevant model works. Unless there's very good reason to believe we can overcome the limits set by this model, this calculation is like saying

the number of radioactive atoms decaying to stable atoms in this 1kg lump of nuclear waste in the first hour after its formation is . If we could keep this number constant throughout storage, nuclear waste would - in terms of radioactivity - be completely converted to stable elements in just 3 years.

Although there are some arguments on why significant extension of lifespans might be possible, the relevant model is not even discussed, and thusly I don't think the arguments brought forth are good enough to warrant the claim that 1000 years are possible.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2015 03:03:41AM 3 points [-]

That's the entire point. The premise is, what if we were able to flat-line risk to be what a 25yo experiences rather than be a function of age.

Comment author: gwern 11 January 2015 10:17:17PM 6 points [-]

That's just not how the relevant model works

Yes, that's rather the point? He's pointing out the implications of the Gompertz curve: that increases in age-related risk account for almost all of why we live such short lives.

Comment author: TrE 12 January 2015 07:06:36AM *  -2 points [-]

Then he should give reasons why that's possible. As it is, it seems to me like he is simply ignoring the math behind ageing. The following would be a better argument, IMO:

The Gompertz law describes human mortality as it currently is. It says that human mortality over time increases more than exponentially. To defy the Gompertz law, bold steps are necessary. Constant maintenance via external drugs that do what our immune system currently does or re-setting our immune system to a younger age may be necessary, as well as keeping the length of our telomers constant without inducing cancer, to break the hard limit set by the Gompertz curve.

Compare:

Radioactive decay is exponential and not linear. That is partly what makes nuclear waste take so long to disappear: Atomic decay is a random process, and even after a few half-lives, some radiation remains. And it gets worse: Many waste products have very long lifetimes, so their radioactivity stays around even when short-lived products are all gone. But researchers have found a solution: They bombard radioactive atoms with other nuclear particles, inducing them to decay much faster. The only weakly radioactive products can be safely extracted. In effect, this process overcomes the limiting math of radioactive decay, enabling linear decay rates and quick decay of long-lived fission products.

Comment author: gwern 12 January 2015 05:40:20PM *  5 points [-]

The following would be a better argument, IMO:

No, it wouldn't, because you are presupposing that one already understands why one would want to do such a difficult thing. The whole point of pointing out the implications of acceleration in mortality is to point out real mortality rates can imply very long lifespans and that squaring the curve would have major and desirable implications. Only once the potential benefits have been established does anyone care about how feasible fixing it would be. There are two blades to the idea of 'cost-benefit', and you are dismissing out of hand anyone even trying to roughly estimate the latter.

To use your atom example:

Right now, our power sources like coal and oil produces X joules per gram; but we can see by simply calculating E=MC^2 that the potential energy of somehow tapping into mass-energy conversion rather than normal chemical potentials would generate multiple orders of magnitude more energy than from normal strategies. This is tantalizing and even believable.

And someone else replying:

That's just not how the relevant model works. Thusly, I don't think the arguments brought forth are good enough to warrant the claim that atomic energy is possible.

Go back to the original article. Why are they discussing aging at all? To justify research like Calico into reducing it.

Jeez. Talk about missing the point.