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mwengler comments on Why you should consider buying Bitcoin right now (Jan 2015) if you have high risk tolerance - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Ander 13 January 2015 08:02PM

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Comment author: mwengler 15 January 2015 05:11:29PM 3 points [-]

That said, we were already in full on crash mode when I posted, which is exactly why I posted, because those are the best times historically to buy.

Yoiks! Please tell me this history of which you speak!

The history of which I am aware summarizes its lessons about buying things that are crashing with the descriptive term "catch a falling knife." It is not a way to make money, it is a way to get hurt. THAT is the history of buying things as they crash.

The time to buy something which is crashing is AFTER it has fallen. After it has stopped falling that is. After all the speculators, those who thought it was worth something merely because other fools thought it was worth something have been bankrupted from the market, and the only remaining buyers are the people who actually want to use the thing things for whatever they are used for. It is the value of thing in use which puts a floor under the price, not the speculators.

This is the history of bubbles.