Yes, that was clumsy of me. I don't have sufficient knowledge to state anything about the nature of UFOs
But by saying that, you are making the exact same sort of error in question: taking low probability hypotheses and assigning them so much weight that you say you don't have sufficient knowledge when in fact you do: the correct conclusion is that the claimed explanations are extremely unlikely.
It is worth noting more generally that while on occasion, hidden government conspiracies do come to light, they are almost never any of the conspiracies that anyone in public is claiming are real.
After the terrorist attacks at Charlie Hebdo, conspiracy theories quickly arose about who was behind the attacks.
People who are critical to the west easily swallow such theories while pro-vest people just as easily find them ridiculous.
I guess we can agree that the most rational response would be to enter a state of aporia until sufficient evidence is at hand.
Yet very few people do so. People are guided by their previous understanding of the world, when judging new information. It sounds like a fine Bayesian approach for getting through life, but for real scientific knowledge, we can't rely on *prior* reasonings (even though these might involve Bayesian reasoning). Real science works by investigating evidence.
So, how do we characterise the human tendency to jump to conclusions that have simply been supplied by their sense of normativity. Is their a previously described bias that covers this case?