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passive_fist comments on Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (40)
Isn't this more an argument against causal decision theory?
You are confusing the means and the ends. If you have a hammer, you do not necessarily need to put a nail through a board. You might need to extract a screw. Having a hammer is not an argument against the need to extract screws sometimes.
Ok, but then I'd like to know when you need to use causal probabilities for something like this (an honest question).
(This may sound circular): when you are interested in causal effects that are confounded in the data you see. I am not sure exactly what you are asking. The right sequence of events is you first decide what you are interested in, and then find a method to get it, not vice versa.
CDT doesn't always get the correct answers, but in this case, (the claim is that) CDT does and the prediction market doesn't.
Can you expand on that? I don't see how that follows.