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IlyaShpitser comments on Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Anders_H 26 January 2015 10:39PM

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Comment author: IlyaShpitser 27 January 2015 02:21:55AM 6 points [-]

You are confusing the means and the ends. If you have a hammer, you do not necessarily need to put a nail through a board. You might need to extract a screw. Having a hammer is not an argument against the need to extract screws sometimes.

Comment author: passive_fist 27 January 2015 03:13:56AM 0 points [-]

Ok, but then I'd like to know when you need to use causal probabilities for something like this (an honest question).

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 27 January 2015 03:23:41AM *  4 points [-]

(This may sound circular): when you are interested in causal effects that are confounded in the data you see. I am not sure exactly what you are asking. The right sequence of events is you first decide what you are interested in, and then find a method to get it, not vice versa.

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