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ike comments on Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy - Less Wrong Discussion
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I believe this has already been addressed by Robin Hanson. See http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/presidential-de.html and http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/11/conditional-close-election-markets.html
Don't take this the wrong way, but I'm actually slightly shocked that no one at the meetup knew about this, and am revising my estimate of the average quality of the meetups downwards (but not by too much). I know almost nothing about futarchy, have read maybe 5-10 posts on it ever, and remembered this.
(If I've misunderstood your point, do tell me.)
This is a more general problem than Robin's example (but I don't think it's a serious issue, even then, see below).
Thanks for those links - I hope I didn't misrepresent the meetup, it is certainly possible that some of them had read this- I have a vague memory of having seen these posts before and I definitely should have discussed it in my post. It is good to know Robin has thought about these issues. His approach seems like it is inspired by regression discontinuity. I will think about whether this works and how general the approach is.