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Caspar42 comments on Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Anders_H 26 January 2015 10:39PM

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Comment author: Caspar42 16 January 2018 02:20:22PM 0 points [-]

The issue with this example (and many similar ones) is that to decide between interventions on a variable X from the outside, EDT needs an additional node representing that outside intervention, whereas Pearl-CDT can simply do(X) without the need for an additional variable. If you do add these variables, then conditioning on that variable is the same as intervening on the thing that the variable intervenes on. (Cf. section 3.2.2 "Interventions as variables" in Pearl's Causality.)