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Good_Burning_Plastic comments on Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Anders_H 26 January 2015 10:39PM

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Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 17 January 2018 01:42:26PM 0 points [-]

The following rules are stipulated: There are four possible outcomes, either "Hillary elected and US Nuked", "Hillary elected and US not nuked", "Jeb elected and US nuked", "Jeb elected and US not nuked". Participants in the market can buy and sell contracts for each of those outcomes, the contract which correponds to the actual outcome will expire at $100, all other contracts will expire at $0

An issue about that is that all other things being equal $100 will be worth more if the US is not nuked than if it is.