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economy comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Quirrell could have decided that their overall grades should reflect only their ability to defend themselves, and so chosen to adjust the non-exam grades such that each student's overall grade (with the final included) matches his assessment of that student's defensive ability.
(This is really a more detailed version of your second guess.)
It could mean that, by surviving this long, Harry has exceeded Quirrell's expectations.