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lmm comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 - Less Wrong Discussion
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The Pythagorean theorem hasn't been mentioned in HPMOR. Given this, would anyone bet me at 100-to-1 odds that future chapters will reveal that Harry rederived the Pythagorean theorem, in secret, while a student at Hogwarts, before April, and had fun?
I take it you mean bet against you? In present circumstances I shouldn't, but I'd most likely be willing to before the 15th (probably only at a scale of something like your $5 vs my $500, which may not be worth the effort).
Meta information makes me even less confident than before. If it were true that Harry rederived the Pythagorean theorem, in secret, etc., EY would have upvoted my comment asking for a bet. My comment received zero upvotes.
I think you overestimate the likelihood that EY even read your comment. I doubt he reads all comments on hpmor discussion anymore.
cough
I'd still take a 250 to 1 bet.