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skeptical_lurker comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (173)
I'd suggest not so much subtle as overinterpreting. Carrow is shallow-minded and status-driven, he thinks he'll sound more deatheaterish if he puts on a particularly grim voice, and Malfoy sees right through him and tells him to stop being silly. This is simple, compatible with everything else we're told, and sufficient to explain Draco's memory described here.
I'd agree - I doubt Carrow is a Horocrux, but the repeated mentions of him might indicate that he has some further role to play, possible involving dark rituals. But the joint probability (Carrow will appear) and (his role will involve dark rituals) and (dark ritual is a Horocrux) is quite low.
Also, IIRC there are 7 Horocruxes in cannon. In HPMOR, it is hinted that we have one for each greek element (magma, ocean trench, stratosphere and buried underground) and one in space. Presumably, Harry is one and Quirrel is one. So all Horocruxes are accounted for.
Joint probabilities don't work that way if you have a designed story line. Esp. by this author.
I'm sorry I don't understand. Even when discussing a work of fiction, the probability that 'Carrow has conducted a dark ritual which makes him a Horocrux' has to be strictly lower than the probability that 'Carrow has a further part to play'.
Probability doen't stop working in certain fields, its universal.
Strictly lower, yes. "Quite low" was what you said, and that part can be disputed based on a read of the author.
Sure, if you think you have a really good read of the author. But as I said, all Horocruxes are accounted for, and as gjm said, there is a simpler explanation, and so I'm sticking by my opinion that Carrow probably isn't a Horocrux, even if he does show up later.
That sounds a lot more like a Rowling type twist than an Eliezer type twist. There are elements that could be interpreted as vague and oblique hints, but it doesn't suggest particularly clever or well-considered behavior on anyone's part.
(...)
What Quirrell is remarking on is that Harry's following an elemental pattern, not that he himself followed the same one.
Q is saying that he didn't think of that as a thing to do with a Dementor and should have. One possible reason for his "very odd smile" is that he did already think of it as a thing to do with a horcrux. I think it's reasonable to call this a hint that maybe there is a Voldemort horcrux buried deep underground. (Certainly far from a proof that there is, though.)
Assuming those are horcruxes, not like parts of the Philosopher's stone or something (but Horcruxes are more likely).
Totally-not-going-to-happen reason for Hogwarts to stop playing with a snitch: the "air" horcurx is a snitch. Dumbledore realizes that Snitches are dangerous, and bans touching them. (Much more likely: Mcgonagall becomes headmistress).
Quirrell in Ch46 said they " sound like something of a riddle," which I guess could be interpreted to mean Tom Riddle, which may be evidence in favor of horcrux-status or something similar.
The entire world plays with a snitch. It seems very unlikely that any one school would stop playing with a snitch (and thereby ruin their preparation for games against other schools, adult competition etc).
But, if the whole of Hogwarts stops playing altogether, perhaps because the school has been destroyed, then technically they have stopped playing with a snitch.
The last act of whoever is the head (Dumbeldoor might have died) is to declare that in the last year of Hogwarts, all houses won the cup, as a symbolic act of unity in the face of tragedy.
Harry's wish was for quidditch to be played without a snitch. Not playing quidditch doesn't fulfill the wish.
Is the present king of France bald? I'm not sure where Quirrell and Harry stand on the truth of vacuous statements- if Hogwarts plays zero games of quidditch, all of them do not involve the snitch.
Also, technically Harry wished that "in Hogwarts we should play quidditch without the Snitch." Should can mean "will" but it can also mean Quirrell will somehow make it a moral fact that quidditch should be played that way, not a factual matter of actually playing that way.