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skeptical_lurker comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (173)
Joint probabilities don't work that way if you have a designed story line. Esp. by this author.
I'm sorry I don't understand. Even when discussing a work of fiction, the probability that 'Carrow has conducted a dark ritual which makes him a Horocrux' has to be strictly lower than the probability that 'Carrow has a further part to play'.
Probability doen't stop working in certain fields, its universal.
Strictly lower, yes. "Quite low" was what you said, and that part can be disputed based on a read of the author.
Sure, if you think you have a really good read of the author. But as I said, all Horocruxes are accounted for, and as gjm said, there is a simpler explanation, and so I'm sticking by my opinion that Carrow probably isn't a Horocrux, even if he does show up later.
That sounds a lot more like a Rowling type twist than an Eliezer type twist. There are elements that could be interpreted as vague and oblique hints, but it doesn't suggest particularly clever or well-considered behavior on anyone's part.