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solipsist comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: b_sen 29 January 2015 01:44AM

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Comment author: solipsist 17 February 2015 12:49:28AM 0 points [-]

Interesting. I have a proposition for you: I'll take a bet on the "false" side of any of the following:

Magic’s full power allows the user to rewrite reality. 99% (Look at Harry’s reaction to McGonagall’s Animagus transformation: "Magic isn't enough to do that! You'd have to be a god!" (Chapter 2))

Quirrell intentionally gave Harry a paper cut (Chapter 26) in order to forcibly obtain his blood. 90%

The customer whom Harry asked about Lucius during the Incident at the Potions Shop (Chapter 7) is Snape. 90%

In the prophecy in Chapter 28, at least one instance of "the Dark Lord" refers to Death. 80%

Snape’s statement that he "can teach you how to ... stopper death" (Chapter 18) will become important. 75%

Hermione’s and Draco’s Christmas wishes will be fulfilled by the House Cup being awarded to Harry, with some acknowledgement of both his Houses. 60%

Bacon’s diary will teach Harry something about how magic works. 50%

Harry will learn how to "cast a Confundus Charm on the entire universe" (Chapter 5). 50%

The snippet at the start of Chapter 1 is from somewhere in the final chapter. 40%

Harry will become capable of traveling more than six hours back in time, then return to the train to Hogwarts, making it true that "there are three of [Harry] on this train" (Chapter 8). 20%


I'll bet on the true side for any of the following:

The note accompanying Harry’s Cloak was written by Dumbledore. 80%


Wanna do a mass bet? I'd buy $10 prediction future contracts off you (e.g. I pay you $6, and if "The snippet at the start of Chapter 1 is from somewhere in the final chapter" false, you pay me $10, otherwise you pay nothing). We could do it for charity, if you prefer.

Comment author: b_sen 17 February 2015 01:21:41AM 0 points [-]

I have to pass on betting, unfortunately.