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Lumifer comments on February 2015 Media Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well, first the Finns are likely to put up serious resistance. There a reason why Finland was an independent country post-WW2 and not the 16th Soviet republic.
The "logical" next targets for Putin are the Baltics.
But the Baltic states are in NATO, and so the U.S. is more likely to defend them than it would Finland.
Whether US and Europe are more likely to go to war with Russia over Finland or over the Baltics is an interesting question, but there doesn't appear to be any way of deciding it :-)
NATO is a point in favor of the U.S. being more likely to fight over the Baltics than Finland. Are there any factors going the other way?
Yes. The Baltics belonged to Russia much more recently than Finland and have a much larger Russian minority population.
Good point.