Putin might rationally calculate that if he tried to conquer Finland (which used to be part of the Czarist Empire) there is only a 10% chance that the U.S. would put up serious resistance
Well, first the Finns are likely to put up serious resistance. There a reason why Finland was an independent country post-WW2 and not the 16th Soviet republic.
The "logical" next targets for Putin are the Baltics.
The "logical" next targets for Putin are the Baltics.
But the Baltic states are in NATO, and so the U.S. is more likely to defend them than it would Finland.
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