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knb comments on February 2015 Media Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Empire and is going to keep taking more territory until he encounters serious resistance, and this resistance could easily turn into a war in which nuclear weapons are used. Putin might rationally calculate that if he tried to conquer Finland (which used to be part of the Czarist Empire) there is only a 10% chance that the U.S. would put up serious resistance, and this was a gamble he would be willing to take. But if the U.S. did decide to fight it would easily beat back Russia if the war stayed conventional, and this might cause Putin to use atomic weapons.
Putin probably calculates that Obama is much less likely to use military force against him than the next U.S. President will be, so we might be entering a period of great danger.
This is just neocon blather. I'll bet you $2000 Russia does not invade Finland by the end of the Obama presidency.
I agree the odds are well under 50%. If you provide your real identity, I would bet $20 based on a 20% chance that Russia will invade a country (other than the Ukraine) by the end of the Obama presidency, so you would have to give me $100 if Russia did invade. I will bet more if your real identity causes me to assign a high probability of you paying if you lose. This is me.
So you claim a 20% chance that Russia will invade a country other than Ukraine by January 20, 2017? That is not really specific to your prediction that Putin is likely to try to steal territory by the end of the Obama administration. For example, the US has invaded many countries in the last 15 years but hasn't been trying to take territory. In addition, the Russian invasion would have to be aggressive (i.e. the other country did not attack first.) Something like the 2008 Georgia war would not count.
Edit: If you can agree to those terms, I will accept the 20:100 odds you offer.
It's Ukraine, not the Ukraine, since the latter version already implies, through history of language, that the territory is a (border) part of Russia (okraina).
I'm concerned about what happens after the end of the Obama presidency as well as before.