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Romashka comments on February 2015 Media Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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I agree the odds are well under 50%. If you provide your real identity, I would bet $20 based on a 20% chance that Russia will invade a country (other than the Ukraine) by the end of the Obama presidency, so you would have to give me $100 if Russia did invade. I will bet more if your real identity causes me to assign a high probability of you paying if you lose. This is me.
It's Ukraine, not the Ukraine, since the latter version already implies, through history of language, that the territory is a (border) part of Russia (okraina).