DanArmak comments on Computation complexity of AGI design - Less Wrong Discussion
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This is basically the Doomsday problem. Any of its proposed resolutions would solve this problem and let us place a single hard (i.e. evolutionarily unlikely) step in our recent history.
As I said in a reply to Mark Friedenbach, I somewhat regret the naive treatment of anthropics in this post. Hopefully I'll write a UDT-based analysis later.