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shminux comments on Questions from an imaginary statistical methods exam - Less Wrong Discussion
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To the commenters who think that these are trivial questions: consider slight modifications. For example, what if it's a car key you are looking for? What if your friend has a set of keys just like your own? What if your roommate is a known prankster and this is Apr 1? What if you have recently been had or almost had by a lottery scam? And so on.
In those cases I would need to check that they are the right keys after finding them. Everything else (part 1) remains the same.
For the lottery scam, well, I was assuming I had heard of the lottery. This is very likely since IIRC the only legal lotteries here are run by the state. The exact answer depends on too many contingent details. More importantly, it does not strongly affect my actions - I am going to be careful as anything with receiving that money - I'd visit the bank and make a new account to put it in, say, even if I'm 90% confident that it's legit.