I would basically be confident at this point, though cognizant of the distant possibility of a screwup or fraud.

Clearly people you know don't take pranking seriously enough. Your friend sitting quietly at their laptop might have overheard your conversation and deployed a mirror website with fraudulent information to make your day more surreal (as I have on more than one occasion). Faking a lottery ticket would be too cruel, but I would totally fake a New York Times article "'Obama Calls on Somers to Stop F*#ing Around and Finish His Thesis Already".

edit: This comment is not on topic, but for some reason I can't delete it