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Daniel_Burfoot comments on Open thread, Feb. 9 - Feb. 15, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: MrMind 09 February 2015 09:12AM

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Comment author: ciphergoth 10 February 2015 01:32:20AM *  5 points [-]

I found this exercise surprising and useful. Supposing we accept the standard model that our utility is logarithmic in money. Let's suppose we're paid $100,000 a year, and somewhat arbitrarily use that as the baseline for our utility calculations. We go out for a meal with 10 people where each spends $20 on food. At the end of the meal, we can either all put in $20 or we can randomize it and have one person pay $200. All other things being equal, how much should we be prepared to pay to avoid randomization?

Take a guess at the rough order of magnitude. Then look at this short Python program until you're happy that it's calculating the amount that you were trying to estimate, and then run it to see how accurate your estimate was.

from math import exp, log
w = 100000
b = 20
k = 10
print w - b - exp(log(w-k*b)/k + log(w)*(1-1.0/k))

Incidentally I discovered this while working out the (trivial) formula for an approximation to this following conversations with Paul Christiano and Benja Fallenstein.

EDITED TO ADD: If you liked this, check out Expectorant by Bethany Soule of Beeminder fame.

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 12 February 2015 08:31:32PM 1 point [-]

The key idea to use here is linearization: even if a function is substantially non-linear overall, it is usually going to be linear in the small region around a point. Since the meal price is small compared to income, utility is just a linear function in that region.

If you haven't done the math in a while, it's a good exercise to see that when you do the Taylor approximations for the two functions, they are equal to first order.

Comment author: ciphergoth 13 February 2015 05:59:36PM 0 points [-]

Right, it was by using the Taylor series around the mean I got the approximation based on the variance. Paul pointed out to me you could do this and presumably did this calculation himself already