Confidence levels inside and outside an argument: in doing a quick analysis of the veracity of a database leak, is the probability of a particular test coming out as it did 0.00000000019323% or... 90%?

Well, that will depend on how true your assumption of independent samples is! See

• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=952177.msg10450148#msg10450148
• https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2vreax/10_of_silk_road_20_user_data_leak_released/coke43u