CellBioGuy comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Is it just me, or did several extremely verbose paragraphs full of questionable reasoning essentially boil down to 'everyone came at the same time so they must have had the same cause'?
EDIT: I mean it's a valid point to make. But it somehow comes from a big complicated tree of wild guesses rather than that statement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYyUUrga7kU
Do not question super thinking powers.
Though to be fair, the HPMoR chapter was waay better about it. EDIT: I liked it more on second reading, and even more on third. This isn't just about "same time", it's also things like "look at all the security your note from the future instructed you to discard".
There were many interlocking pieces of evidence already pointing to the truth of Q == V (I think readers were actually chastising Harry for not figuring it out earlier at some point); the perfect timing of this particular incident was simply the part that happened to break Harry's voluntary suspension of disbelief enough for him to actually start trying to piece it all together.
As someone pointed out on Reddit, it's pretty suspicious that Harry figured everything out almost immediately after Snape hit him with a "Dispel Confusion".
This would also neatly explain why Quirrelmort didn't see this coming "Snape does his level best to help Harry Potter" does not seem like the kind of outcome Q would consider very likely, so his overly complicated plot going off the rails there is perfectly reasonable.
Yeah, this part of the chapter seems heavy with Rand-like author tract. The fake note analysis made up for it, though.
Why "Rand-like"?
She is infamous for it... Here is a good parody from http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/25/a-philosopher-walks-into-a-coffee-shop/ :
It's not nearly as bad in chapter 104, but the similarity is hard to ignore.
Really? I'm not seeing anything like that in Chapter 104. I know Rand has a heavy penchant for giant philosophical lectures, but I don't see any philosophical lectures in Chapter 104, big or small (at least beyond what EY normally inserts). Harry's revelation is just that: a revelation. Maybe I'm missing something; I don't know. Is there really any lecturing going on here?
Not exactly. A lot of it was trying to figure out just what set of people had their presence unexplained. If some of them had perfectly understandable reasons for being there right then without intervention, then his new explanation would not need to cover them.
It turned out that everyone (perhaps except Snape) needed explanation, including himself, so it kind of looked like he ended up where he started, though he was on much firmer footing afterwards.
Ha, but it does start with a conviction that intelligent design is involved. I think that makes it better and not worse.