b_sen comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104 - Less Wrong Discussion
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How is PredictionBook for sharing evidence for one's predictions, back-and-forth discussion, logging 'categories' of predictions, detailed statistics (such as calibration changes over time, more granularity than 10% increments, etc.) and so on? Are there any specific features of PredictionBook you would recommend to me?
I ask because:
I do intend to check my calibration on my MOR predictions once MOR ends, regardless of where I put the predictions up.
Sharing your prediction in this thread doesn't get others to share their own numbers. Predictionbook on the other hand usually does. It leads to communal prediction making.
It also gives you calibration statistics.
You could have a account for every prediction technique.
That seems like an excessive amount of work, especially once overlapping categories and domains come into play.