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ChristianKl comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104 - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: b_sen 16 February 2015 01:24AM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 19 February 2015 11:58:23AM 0 points [-]

Sharing your prediction in this thread doesn't get others to share their own numbers. Predictionbook on the other hand usually does. It leads to communal prediction making.

It also gives you calibration statistics.

I often have domain-specific prediction techniques and would want to check my calibration for each technique (and each domain) as well as overall.

You could have a account for every prediction technique.

Comment author: b_sen 20 February 2015 07:53:26PM 0 points [-]

You could have a account for every prediction technique.

That seems like an excessive amount of work, especially once overlapping categories and domains come into play.