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philh comments on Open thread, Feb. 16 - Feb. 22, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I remembered it too. Found the quote you're referring to, I think:
"He ran a quick self-predictive model. There was a ninety-three per cent chance that he’d give in, after a kilotau spent agonising over the decision. It hardly seemed fair to keep Karpal waiting that long."
Egan, Greg (2010-12-30). Diaspora (Kindle Locations 3127-3129). Orion. Kindle Edition.
Thank you!