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dxu comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapters 105-107 - Less Wrong Discussion
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That's possible, but (unless I'm misremembering) the one reader who did guess the plot said it seemed "obvious" to him/her as well, which is evidence in favor of it being obvious once you see it.
This could explain the reduced number of comments. As Alsadius pointed out, there used to be 500 comments per chapter, so it stands to logic that as the series advance more users figure it out and stop commenting so as not to spoil it.
Without even leaving a comment saying, "I've figured it out"?
You have a point, though there's no need to. I know I wouldn't, since I can't see what benefit would come from it. Specially if they figured it out between arcs (since there were no discussion threads active, or nearly none at least.) But probably at least a few would've said it and taking into account how many people would've needed to figure it out for that to account for the reduced number of comments, it's strong evidence against it. Sorry, I guess I didn't think it through too much.
These are also way shorter chapters.