Viliam_Bur comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapters 105-107 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Those all sounds like reasonable estimates: too bad. I was hoping to possibly make a few quick bucks out of a conjunction fallacy bet. But given that it is you I shouldn't be surprised that the actual calibration level looks pretty sane.
I guess my time spent at the CFAR workshop wasn't completely wasted. :D