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ChristianKl comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 108 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (352)
You don't update much on n=1 experiments in cases like this.
Humanity had many opportunities to destroy civilization during the Cold War. Or are you saying V subscribes to a ridiculously strong notion of quantum immortality?
You don't need to believe in quantum immortality for the anthropomorphic principle.
Yes, once 3 of 4 mechanisms that a nuclear bomb needs to detonate failed when a US plane carrying a nuclear bomb crashed. All 4 would have meant a bomb exploding in the US.
It would have needed 3 of 3 votes on that Russian submarine to start a nuclear strike and there were only 2 of 3 votes.
Both of those incidents turned out all right, but there was still a risk and they shouldn't lead to confidence mistakes won't happen.
Tangential, but I believe you mean the anthropic principle, which anyway really only applies to things that happened before you were born.