If I am right, how should I answer or continue these conversations?

Why are you having the conversation in the first place?

In both cases you didn't provide any deep arguments. If you want to have a productive discussion it makes sense to argue on a deeper level.

What it means for the current strategy not to work isn't straightforward. You could call reducing the oil price a lot a current strategy that damages the finances of everyone in the area. It's a fairly recent move and it's effects aren't yet clear.

There's also a lot of fog of war.