My anecdotal evidence seems to show the opposite. It is easier to e.g. dedicate the time to work out when I have a fairly busy job than when I am sitting at home collecting unemployment. The reason is that in the first case I am proud of myself, invigorated, uplifted, the opposite of depressed (hedonic?) and feel like "You go man! You were awesome today, now go and totally crush that workout too!" and in the second case I hate myself, feel depressed, feel like "You are just a useless bum, nobody will ever employ you, you cannot do anything right" and with that kind of weight it is hard to get off the couch.

In other words, winning and losing streaks are real when it comes to football and not gambling because of what kind of confidence they grant or take away, and being busy roughly corresponds to a winning streak and having too much free time to a losing one.

This is very counter-intuitive. Our evolutionary environment was probably the complete opposite: you bust ass if you are low down the pole and you can laze around if you are top. Yet, our instincts still seem to evaluate being busy with "I am great, so I can do even more" and having nothing to do with "I suck, I cannot do anything".