Decide what you want to live for. I see three reasons to live: discharge duties, pursue personal goals, or gather hedonistic enjoyment, of which there are many kinds but let's just summarize as sex, drugs and rock and roll. In the first two cases, if you expect to also get paid for them, the goals are probably never reached and thus you never retire and never stop earning. The third option reduces lifespan anyway, running out of money and health/lifespan roughly at the same time can actually be a kind of local optimum.
Quite honestly, I only save for emergencies. By emergency I mean 3 years unemployment. OK I can expect some state pension (EU), but generally speaking I don't see an old age spent in poverty a threat, if my naughtier, hard-drinker etc. subagent wins, I cannot really expect to live long, and most likely the only way to beat that subagent is to develop another one that has some kind of life goal, and if that happens I will probably never retire from that, and it is also likely I will always get paid for that. If for example I retire and start writing and realize nobody buys my books, then I am maybe at year 1 of my three year unemployment fund so obviously then I un-retire.
I'm 22 years old, just got a job, and have the option of putting money in a 401k. More generally, I just started making money and need to think about how I'm going to invest and save it.
As far as long-term/retirement savings goes, the way I see it is that my goal is to ensure that I have a sufficient standard of living when I'm "old" (70-80). I see a few ways that this can happen:
Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022
Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040
Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
- http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
And even if they're wrong and there's no singularity, it still seems to be very likely that there will be immense wealth creation in the next 60 or so years, and I'm sure that there'll be a fair amount of distribution as well, such that the poorest people will probably have reasonably comfortable lives. I'm a believer in Kurweil's Law of Accelerating Returns, but even if you project linear growth, there'd still be immense growth.
Given all of this, I find thinking that "wealth creation + distribution over the next 60 years -> sufficient standard of living for everyone" is a rather likely scenario. But my logic here is very "outside view-y" - I don't "really understand" the component steps and their associated likelihoods, so my confidence is limited.
Anyway, I think that there is a pretty good chance that I succeed, in, say the next 20 years. I never thought hard enough about it to put a number on it, but I'll try it here.
Say that I get 10 tries to start a startup in the next 20 years (I know that some take longer than 2 years to fail, but 2 years is the average, and it often takes shorter than 2 years to fail). At a 50% chance of success, that's a >99.9% chance that at least one of them succeeds (1-.5^10). I know 50% might seem high, but I think that my rationality skills, domain knowledge (eventually) and experience (eventually) give me an edge. Even at a 10% chance of success, I have about a 65% (1-.9^10) chance at succeeding in one of those 10 tries, and I think that 10% chance of success is very conservative.
Things I may be underestimating: the chances that I judge something else (earning to give? AI research? less altruistic? a girl/family?) to be a better use of my time. Changes in the economy that make success a lot less likely.
Anyway, there seems to be a high likelihood that I continue to start startups until I succeed, and there seems to be a high likelihood that I will succeed by the time I retire, in which case I should have enough money to ensure that I have a sufficient standard of living for the rest of my life.