Thank you for the data point.
You're welcome!
Would you mind commenting a bit more on what you think the likelihoods of the various possibilities are? In particular, what do you think the likelihood of !1 && !2 && !3 is?
I don't feel like I have any special knowledge, and don't want to put where my gut points now down in writing.
My hedging point is that I don't think that number is very relevant, though: it seems like you should condition on no x-risks and not being in the !1 && !2 && !3 state, because both of those states are ones where the actions you take now don't meaningfully impact your position, relative to their impact in the other alternative.
But there are strong counterarguments to that: you might think that you can nudge the x-risk number, or that it matters to you how soon a positive singularity happens, or so on.
The opportunity cost to me saving for retirement is spending more time working on startups and increasing my knowledge.
Most retirement funds allow you to pull it out early with a minor penalty--I think it's 10%? If you have access to matching funds, I think you could put money into a retirement fund, get the match, and then pull it out and be ahead. You would have to look at the particulars of your match and fund, though.
I'm 22 years old, just got a job, and have the option of putting money in a 401k. More generally, I just started making money and need to think about how I'm going to invest and save it.
As far as long-term/retirement savings goes, the way I see it is that my goal is to ensure that I have a sufficient standard of living when I'm "old" (70-80). I see a few ways that this can happen:
Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022
Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040
Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
- http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
And even if they're wrong and there's no singularity, it still seems to be very likely that there will be immense wealth creation in the next 60 or so years, and I'm sure that there'll be a fair amount of distribution as well, such that the poorest people will probably have reasonably comfortable lives. I'm a believer in Kurweil's Law of Accelerating Returns, but even if you project linear growth, there'd still be immense growth.
Given all of this, I find thinking that "wealth creation + distribution over the next 60 years -> sufficient standard of living for everyone" is a rather likely scenario. But my logic here is very "outside view-y" - I don't "really understand" the component steps and their associated likelihoods, so my confidence is limited.
Anyway, I think that there is a pretty good chance that I succeed, in, say the next 20 years. I never thought hard enough about it to put a number on it, but I'll try it here.
Say that I get 10 tries to start a startup in the next 20 years (I know that some take longer than 2 years to fail, but 2 years is the average, and it often takes shorter than 2 years to fail). At a 50% chance of success, that's a >99.9% chance that at least one of them succeeds (1-.5^10). I know 50% might seem high, but I think that my rationality skills, domain knowledge (eventually) and experience (eventually) give me an edge. Even at a 10% chance of success, I have about a 65% (1-.9^10) chance at succeeding in one of those 10 tries, and I think that 10% chance of success is very conservative.
Things I may be underestimating: the chances that I judge something else (earning to give? AI research? less altruistic? a girl/family?) to be a better use of my time. Changes in the economy that make success a lot less likely.
Anyway, there seems to be a high likelihood that I continue to start startups until I succeed, and there seems to be a high likelihood that I will succeed by the time I retire, in which case I should have enough money to ensure that I have a sufficient standard of living for the rest of my life.