linkhyrule5 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (173)
If your prediction is lower than 50%, what you're really saying is, "Of all the hypotheses I that have been elevated to my attention, this one is most likely; however, I am so uncertain that I am more likely to be wrong than right."
Or in other words, to paraphrase Eliezer, I'm fairly sure that random person's name isn't Klein, but I'm very sure it's not Ktlzybplq.
I've spent too long on LW, I think - I saw "Ktlzybplq" and assumed it was rot13.
It's almost Mxyzptlk.