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linkhyrule5 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: b_sen 25 February 2015 06:52PM

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Comment author: linkhyrule5 25 February 2015 07:57:03PM 3 points [-]

If your prediction is lower than 50%, what you're really saying is, "Of all the hypotheses I that have been elevated to my attention, this one is most likely; however, I am so uncertain that I am more likely to be wrong than right."

Or in other words, to paraphrase Eliezer, I'm fairly sure that random person's name isn't Klein, but I'm very sure it's not Ktlzybplq.

Comment author: Alsadius 25 February 2015 08:57:47PM 6 points [-]

I've spent too long on LW, I think - I saw "Ktlzybplq" and assumed it was rot13.

Comment author: TobyBartels 26 February 2015 07:49:13PM 0 points [-]

It's almost Mxyzptlk.