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DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong Discussion
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In an alternate universe that no longer exists. (That is, Ch. 109 is different now.) I do agree that a retcon is involved makes that less probable.
But in the intervening minutes I've thought of a better explanation: Voldemort is thinking about a new and difficult subject, and that's consuming enough of his attention that he is making general errors.
Overall, the plausibility relative to the alternate theories--that Voldemort is pretending to lose--is indeed low. But given the fearsomeness of an intelligent Dark Lord, basically the only hope that Harry has is somehow surprising Voldemort, and this surprise seems more plausible than a partial transfiguration surprise.