I think the probability of you popping into existence again is (1) very small and (2) depends on how you define your "self." Would you consider an atom-for-atom copy of you to be "you"? How about an uploaded copy? etc. The simple fact is that physicists have constructed a very simple model for the universe that hasn't been wrong yet and, so, is very likely to be correct in the vast majority of situations - your existence should be one of them. Faith in the accepted model of the universe constructed by modern physicists can be justified by any reasonable prior coupled with Bayes' theorem. Thus, you can be extremely (99.999%+) that you won't pop into existence with infinite suffering (technically 0 and 1 aren't commonly accepted as probabilities on LessWrong).

Moving on, you will almost certainly not live forever (suffering or otherwise), because, quite simply, the universe will experience heat-death at some point. Justification for this belief is, similarly, based on Bayesian updating.

As a side-note. You say

Similar to what happens if there is no free will and thus nothing matters since no change is possible?

I'm not sure free will is a meaningful mental category when used in philosophy. If we lived in a deterministic universe, I, personally, would still believe that life had value. Ultimately, our universe is either deterministic or it isn't, but I fail to see why this would have any important philosophical implications. Why would it be good if our universe contained randomness?

You might consider reading "Possibility and Could-ness" if you haven't done so for an alternative perspective on what free will actually is.