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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 113

8 Post author: Gondolinian 28 February 2015 08:23PM

This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 113.

There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)

Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:

You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).

If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.


IMPORTANT -- From the end of chapter 113:

This is your final exam.

You have 60 hours.

Your solution must at least allow Harry to evade immediate death,
despite being naked, holding only his wand, facing 36 Death Eaters
plus the fully resurrected Lord Voldemort.

If a viable solution is posted before
*12:01AM Pacific Time* (8:01AM UTC) on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015,
the story will continue to Ch. 121.

Otherwise you will get a shorter and sadder ending.

Keep in mind the following:

1. Harry must succeed via his own efforts. The cavalry is not coming.
Everyone who might want to help Harry thinks he is at a Quidditch game.

2. Harry may only use capabilities the story has already shown him to have;
he cannot develop wordless wandless Legilimency in the next 60 seconds.

3. Voldemort is evil and cannot be persuaded to be good;
the Dark Lord's utility function cannot be changed by talking to him.

4. If Harry raises his wand or speaks in anything except Parseltongue,
the Death Eaters will fire on him immediately.

5. If the simplest timeline is otherwise one where Harry dies -
if Harry cannot reach his Time-Turner without Time-Turned help -
then the Time-Turner will not come into play.

6. It is impossible to tell lies in Parseltongue.

Within these constraints,
Harry is allowed to attain his full potential as a rationalist,
now in this moment or never,
regardless of his previous flaws.

Of course 'the rational solution',
if you are using the word 'rational' correctly,
is just a needlessly fancy way of saying 'the best solution'
or 'the solution I like' or 'the solution I think we should use',
and you should usually say one of the latter instead.
(We only need the word 'rational' to talk about ways of thinking,
considered apart from any particular solutions.)

And by Vinge's Principle,
if you know exactly what a smart mind would do,
you must be at least that smart yourself.
Asking someone "What would an optimal player think is the best move?"
should produce answers no better than "What do you think is best?"

So what I mean in practice,
when I say Harry is allowed to attain his full potential as a rationalist,
is that Harry is allowed to solve this problem
the way YOU would solve it.
If you can tell me exactly how to do something,
Harry is allowed to think of it.

But it does not serve as a solution to say, for example,
"Harry should persuade Voldemort to let him out of the box"
if you can't yourself figure out how.

The rules on Fanfiction dot Net allow at most one review per chapter.
Please submit *ONLY ONE* review of Ch. 113,
to submit one suggested solution.

For the best experience, if you have not already been following
Internet conversations about recent chapters, I suggest not doing so,
trying to complete this exam on your own,
not looking at other reviews,
and waiting for Ch. 114 to see how you did.

I wish you all the best of luck, or rather the best of skill.

Ch. 114 will post at 10AM Pacific (6PM UTC) on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015.


ADDED:

If you have pending exams,
then even though the bystander effect is a thing,
I expect that the collective effect of
'everyone with more urgent life
issues stays out of the effort'
shifts the probabilities very little

(because diminishing marginal returns on more eyes
and an already-huge population that is participating).

So if you can't take the time, then please don't.
Like any author, I enjoy the delicious taste of my readers' suffering,
finer than any chocolate; but I don't want to *hurt* you.

Likewise, if you hate hate hate this sort of thing, then don't participate!
Other people ARE enjoying it. Just come back in a few days.
I shouldn't even need to point this out.

I remind you again that you have hours to think.
Use the Hold Off On Proposing Solutions, Luke.

And really truly, I do mean it,
Harry cannot develop any new magical powers
or transcend previously stated constraints on them
in the next sixty seconds.

Comments (503)

Sort By: Controversial
Comment author: Ishaan 28 February 2015 11:05:59PM *  1 point [-]

The case for thinking seriously about Partial Transfiguration:

1) Partial transfiguration is wordless, but wanded.

2) it's a power Riddle doesn't know as per the prophecy.

3) Harry still holding his wand is a Chekov's Gun for a wanded spell such as transfiguration.

4) Yes, that does seems too obvious, but I don't think Eliezer wants to end the story here so he wouldn't want an extremely subtle puzzle.

5) The only evidence against is that Quirrell might have ripped it from Hermione's mind...but he wouldn't know what to look for, would he? And Dumbledore may well have obliviated it away.

Constraints

1) Only very small amounts of matter can be transfigured

2) The want must not be raised, so Harry must transfigure the ground he's pointing at. No transfiguring people's bodies or anything fancy. The air can also be transfigured.

3) Outright explosives will kill Harry as well, so you can't just make a small patch of antimatter or airborne lethal toxin unless you can find a way to shield Harry.

So, guys - any ideas as to what thimbleful of tiny molecules, placed in the earth a few feet away from Harry, can save him?

EDIT: The case against partial transfiguration as a solution

1) Too obvious

2) Harry holding the wand not Chekov's gun. Riddle is aware that he aught to have disarmed Harry. Not disarming Harry means that somehow Riddle has contingency plans or even actively wants Harry to use the wand.

3) Any combat oriented action almost certainly involves death, regardless of head starts and discreteness, even if we manage to take down Riddle's current body.

Comment author: Ishaan 28 February 2015 11:16:41PM *  0 points [-]

Immediate Idea #1: Take deep breath. Transform tiny piece of ground into a gas. Start explaining secret in parseltongue, do not inhale. Voldemort inhales some of the gas, causing magical resonance. Voldemort hopefully dis-corporates. Harry and death eaters comes down with probably curable transfiguration sickness, Harry less so for not having inhaled.

Harry still dies because the death eater's fire on him, so this idea fails :(

Still, in Harry's place, with as much time to think as Harry has had, this is what I would do. (Followed by casting the patronus charm ASAP to block the incoming barrage of AK, ducking, Bubblehead charm, and massive, lethal-to-anyone-that-breathes transfigurations. It's probably too much to hope that at least one death eater was a spy, but that would also help. It sucks that Harry can't Apparate.)

Comment author: occlude 01 March 2015 10:37:37AM 2 points [-]

One of the transfiguration safety rules: Never transfigure something into anything that might be eaten or breathed. Is it possible to demonstrate partial transfiguration (on, for example, his father's rock) while transforming much of its substance very temporarily into a breathable gas?

Comment author: Ishaan 01 March 2015 08:12:44PM *  -1 points [-]

I think those are just safety rules, rather than laws of transfiguration magic, so it should be possible.

(in any case, I don't really think partial transfiguration is actually the solution, since anything which involves combat is necessarily a long shot with too many magical unknown unknowns to count).

Comment author: atorm 02 March 2015 12:49:19AM 1 point [-]

Transfiguration requires the caster's wand to touch the target. However, Harry's understanding of partial transfiguration was based on his understanding of the underlying quantum field nature of reality. This means that Harry's wand is touching everything all at once. He should be able to Transfigure anything in the area that he wants, and based on the Azkaban sequence, he could think or speak while doing so.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 02 March 2015 09:18:27PM 1 point [-]

Make sure you post this in a review, even if it doesn't end up being directly relevant to the solution you post. And mention that this fact should be considered in the judging of everyone else's solutions.

Comment author: wiserd 28 February 2015 10:56:20PM *  -1 points [-]

Here's my idea, which I've posted as a review on FF.net. Harry has advanced transfiguration. The Philosopher's Stone can make transfiguration permanent. Harry can bring life to dead things. This is very close to Harry being able to create copies of himself, which would surely be attractive to Harry. The question, then, is; when did Harry first realize this capacity?The possibility of creating a body double might very well have been enough to have persuaded Dumbledore to let Harry use the Philosopher's stone, which he seems to have access to. Or Harry might have procured the stone himself, which he seems able to, intellectually. It's just a matter of procuring a confundus charm. The current Harry could have been memory-charmed into believing he was the original Harry and this ruse may have gone on for quite some time (though reviving Hermione would have made it obvious that he had this power, and I'm not sure if Harry would have demured to do so if he thought he could. I suspect he'd have to be persuaded by someone else.) It might help in explaining why Harry could attack Voldemort, since Voldemort's curse bound only Tom Riddles "descended from him", and the current double would have been "descended" from Harry.

In this case our Harry could be destroyed and another Harry would still live (and could even play off his surviving destruction as a type of magic, snapping his fingers.) Similarly, could Harry sacrifice one of his doubles to create a horcrux and then inhabit a spare transfigured body, laying in stasis somewhere (like his bag of holding?) This seems a bit dark for Harry, but maybe possible.

I'm not sure what the limitations on this type of duplication magic would be. Perhaps multiple Harrys would need to be created 'from hit points' and even if one Harry could make another they might each be weaker or draw on the original Harry's HPs. But an army of Harry Potters striding over the hill wouldn't be a bad solution to this problem. Chaos Army of One. etc.

Comment author: Izeinwinter 28 February 2015 08:59:50PM *  3 points [-]

Lets see..

Notes: EY didn't say that noone was aware of what was happening, just that anyone who would help Harry think he is at the game. Given the prophecy about Harry, this has disturbing implications.

Anyway: Obstacles: 39 minions in not-defensively enchanted blacks. One dark lord who can't use magic on you, but who can shoot your ass, An absolute prohibition on moves that could escalate to world threatening levels.

Assets: Naked pasty english lad. Wand. Parseltongue.

.. You know, normally in this sort of situation I'd recommend talking. Parseltongue is far and away the most potent tool he has, because he can tell Voldemort true things, and Voldemort will not be able to scoff at him.

But the problem is, the only things Harry could tell him that would make him delay killing him are things Voldemort should not be told, even at the cost of his life.

So combat it is.

Sigh. This is going to hurt.

Cant partially transfigure air, but wands are not indivisible objects, so he still has a small amount of material to work with, at least once.

Partially transfigure the tip of the wand into photons. The kind of flash of light that leaves burns. Everyone is looking at you - And now they are all blind. Possibly also on fire. Do it with the center of the tip so that you are in the shadow cast by the wand - but expect a hospital stay. And a need for a new wand. Primarily, the point is that this will attract attention. Most likely, timeturned attention. So if you do this, there is now a reason for someone to rescue you a faction of a second after the initial flash. .. Which shouldn't actually even be necessary. If I read Voldemort correctly, he will bail if actually hurt. Certainly since he has already extracted the wow...

Comment author: jkadlubo 28 February 2015 09:05:06PM 1 point [-]

Could he tell Voldemort aout partial transfiguration and request his own life spared?

Comment author: Izeinwinter 28 February 2015 09:07:34PM 4 points [-]

Buffing the dark lord further is not an option. There is tonnes of things Harry could infer and then tell him that would make him delay. But this would be trading moments of life for further fucking over the world. Not a good trade.

Comment author: jkadlubo 01 March 2015 10:10:33AM 1 point [-]

He would tell he can do it, but not necessarily how it works. Of course knowing that problem is solvable facilitates solution, but since we know the solution, we also know it would take time for Voldemort to find and use it.

So it is buffing, but with a time delay. That's why I think it's the simplest solution. Quirrelmort did start reading a book on physics, but is certainly far from understanding it deeply enough to do partial transfiguration.

This move would simply buy Harry time. It won't solve the problem of Voldemort threatening the world, but will keep Harry alive, which is the objective of this quest.

There is tonnes of things Harry could infer and then tell him

OK, then use that to buy Harry's own life. My idea was more about Harry buying his own life than telling about partial transfiguration.

Comment author: Izeinwinter 01 March 2015 10:37:03AM 2 points [-]

Thing is, dying isn't the worst tactical option here.

There is a chance buying the farm will just throw Harry into the horcruxi. Not certain enough to do it deliberately, but enough that any plan you come up with has to be better than the option of

"Do nothing, die, hope to hang out in the horcruxi until Voldemort buys it again, let resonance remove you both from play"

Which is a non-negligible bar to clear. Telling him a trick which might be the power he knows not to buy another minute of breathing doesn't pass muster. Telling him of the possibility doesn't pass muster.

There are very few things which are both true and acceptable to tell Voldemort, simply because any information you give him, he will use against the world. If you give him information he can't use, he will ignore it.

Comment author: Alsadius 01 March 2015 03:07:06PM 1 point [-]

He could certainly request it, but he won't get it.

Comment author: shminux 01 March 2015 12:15:37AM 14 points [-]

HP should ask LV whether his robes are black and blue or gold and white.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 03 March 2015 12:34:34AM *  2 points [-]

[nvm]

Comment author: shminux 02 March 2015 05:21:29AM 0 points [-]

Has the 26-hour day been explained yet?

Comment author: fezziwig 02 March 2015 05:40:37AM 2 points [-]

Somewhat off-kilter way to get the Time Turner into the story? Does it need more explanation than that?

Comment author: shminux 02 March 2015 05:48:18AM 1 point [-]

That would be too clumsy for Eliezer.

Comment author: TylerJay 02 March 2015 06:25:26PM 2 points [-]

Eliezer himself has a 24.5 hr sleep cycle. I think it was just that and a way to get a time turner

Comment author: shminux 01 March 2015 04:44:58AM *  5 points [-]

I am actually reluctant to think of ways for HP to escape, because I am kind of rooting for LV in this fic. Sure, he is ruthless and stuff, but he seems to be way less dangerous than Harry, who is prophesied to destroy the world. LV just hates stupid people. Plus he has all but made Hermione immortal, and she the only voice of reason in the story. And he likes gazing at stars, and is against nuclear weapons. A competent ruler is such a rarity. As kings go, he would be considered cute.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 March 2015 12:53:06AM 3 points [-]

ROT 13ed Final Exam suggestion:

Va Cnefyrgbathr "Jung cebonovyvgl qb lbh nffvta gb gur cbffvovyvgl gung V nz fhssvpvragyl Gbz Evqqyr gung V jvyy or pbcvrq vagb lbhe Ubepehk argjbex?"

Comment author: kilobug 01 March 2015 08:39:06AM 7 points [-]

I am the only one quite upset about this and thinking it's mean from Eliezer ? There are at least three kind of reasons that makes me upset :

  1. It breaches an implicit contract between readers and authors. Especially when it's such a long work, each reader has invested literally hundred of hours to get to this point. Asking us to do something to get the real ending, that's already written, at this point is a kind of blackmail. And the only long-term answer to blackmail, as Dumbledore explained in HPMOR, is to not comply.

  2. What purpose does it serve, apart doing harm ? The purposes of HPMOR, in my understanding, are : 1. Bring awareness (and therefore, among other things, money/donations) to MIRI/CFAR. 2. Show people that rationality is awesome so they'll read more about it (ie, the Sequences, books, ...) and therefore "raise the sanity waterline". This undermines 1. by pissing off part of the reader base and making the story suboptimal, and this greatly undermines 2. if the super-rational Harry still fails.

  3. It's not a fair nor fun game at all, because there is so much we don't know about the laws of the settings, so we are reduced to blind guesses. We don't know how fast can Harry transfigure things. We don't know what he can transfigure (antimatter, monofilament, ...). We don't know what's in the moleskin pouch. We don't if he can transfigure while holding a normal conversation in Parseltongue. We don't know if Voldemort can detect him doing transfiguration. And so on. It's like having to devise a plan in a RPG without the stats of your character, without the (numeric) effect of spells/abilites, and without the ability to ask the DM "could my character do X ?". There are many times in HPMOR when things I didn't think should work did work, and otherwise, and it's fine, it's Eliezer's world, he sets the rules. But then, he can't ask us to blind guess a solution to a very hard problem where we don't know the rules of the world.

Comment author: shminux 01 March 2015 08:52:46PM 5 points [-]

Clearly enough people disagree, given the amount of interest and lack of condemnation in /r/hpmor, here and in ##hpmor.

Comment author: dxu 02 March 2015 03:38:34AM *  1 point [-]

##hpmor

Two hashes?

Comment author: shminux 02 March 2015 05:19:45AM 1 point [-]

Indeed.

Comment author: purplerabbits 01 March 2015 11:44:26AM 8 points [-]

I don't think it's unfair at all, but your comment made me rethink something that may be relevant. Quirrel set a surprise exam, and it was surprisingly easy and everyone (except Hermione) passed. I think probably the worst thing that you can do in the face of a surprise exam is not attempt to answer, and maybe that's part of the lesson EY is trying to convey here :-)

I also note that Quirrel failed Hermione in the knowledge that he would be resurrecting her, and this is either very mean, or a very good lesson for resurrected Hermione, or both.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 10:20:31AM *  6 points [-]

Pessimistic Assumptions Thread

"Excuse me, I should not have asked that of you, Mr. Potter, I forgot that you are blessed with an unusually pessimistic imagination -"

Ch. 15

Sometimes people called Moody 'paranoid'.

Moody always told them to survive a hundred years of hunting Dark Wizards and then get back to him about that.

Mad-Eye Moody had once worked out how long it had taken him, in retrospect, to achieve what he now considered a decent level of caution - weighed up how much experience it had taken him to get good instead of lucky - and had begun to suspect that most people died before they got there. Moody had once expressed this thought to Lyall, who had done some ciphering and figuring, and told him that a typical Dark Wizard hunter would die, on average, eight and a half times along the way to becoming 'paranoid'. This explained a great deal, assuming Lyall wasn't lying.

Yesterday, Albus Dumbledore had told Mad-Eye Moody that the Dark Lord had used unspeakable dark arts to survive the death of his body, and was now awake and abroad, seeking to regain his power and begin the Wizarding War anew.

Someone else might have reacted with incredulity.

Ch. 63

Under standard literary convention... the enemy wasn't supposed to look over what you'd done, sabotage the magic items you'd handed out, and then send out a troll rendered undetectable by some means the heroes couldn't figure out even after the fact, so that you might as well have not defended yourself at all. In a book, the point-of-view usually stayed on the main characters. Having the enemy just bypass all the protagonists' work, as a result of planning and actions taken out of literary sight, would be a diabolus ex machina, and dramatically unsatisfying.

But in real life the enemy would think that they were the main character, and they would also be clever, and think things through in advance, even if you didn't see them do it. That was why everything about this felt so disjointed, with parts unexplained and seemingly inexplicable.

Ch. 94

"You may think that a grade of Dreadful... is not fair. That Miss Granger was faced with a test... for which her lessons... had not prepared her. That she was not told... that the exam was coming on that day."

The Defense Professor drew in a shaking breath.

"Such is realism," said Professor Quirrell.

Ch. 103

Recalling finewbs's coordinated saturation bombing strategy, if the goal is to maximize the total best-guess probability of the set of scenarios covered by at least one solution, this means crafting and posting diverse solutions which handle as wide a diversity of conjunctions of pessimistic assumptions as possible. This would be helped by having a list of pessimistic assumptions.

(It also may be helped by having a reasonable source of probabilities of scenarios, such as HPMOR predictions on PredictionBook. Also: in an adversarial context, the truth of pessimistic assumptions is correlated.)

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 01:08:04PM 2 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort has reasonable cause to be confident that his Horcrux network will not be affected by Harry's death.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:05:35PM *  1 point [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Any plan which causes the occurrence of the vignette from Ch. 1 does not lead to the best ending. (For example, one reading of phenomena in Ch. 89 is that that Harry is in a time loop, and the vignette may be associated with the path that leads to a reset of the loop.)

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:12:05AM 1 point [-]

Pessimistic assumption: The effect of the Unbreakable Vow depends crucially on the order in which Harry lets himself become aware of arguments about its logical consequences.

Comment author: lerjj 02 March 2015 05:45:22PM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption LV knows that Harry can do partial transfiguration. LV has put up anti- apparition, anti- time turning and anti-transfiguration wards.

Less probable Pessimistic assumption these wards do not count as LV's magic once laid and will not resonate with Harry, meaning they will stay active. Alternatively, a death eater has laid them on previously understood instructions.

Comment author: lerjj 02 March 2015 05:43:44PM 2 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption LV has been planning exactly this conversation for months and has thought of every possible plan of action that he could do. He has Harry level intelligence. All viable solutions must therefore use information LV does not have access to, which does not include the fact that Harry is Tom Riddle. Asking for power he knows not is trying to patch this minor hole.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 01:09:41PM *  0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort can reliably give orders to Death Eaters within line-of-sight, and Death Eaters can cast several important spells, without any visible sign or sound.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:59:13PM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort wants Harry to reveal important information as a side effect of using his wand. To get the best ending, Harry must identify what information this would be, and prevent Voldemort from acquiring this information.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:10:24PM *  0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Hermione, once wakened, despite acting normal, will be under Voldemort's control.

Comment author: Romashka 02 March 2015 11:59:16AM *  0 points [-]

(somewhat shaky) Pessimistic Assumption

Voldemort can use a Time-Turner, too, and he will send himself a message from the future to win.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:30:51AM *  0 points [-]

Concerning Transfiguration:

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:53:52AM *  1 point [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Neither partial Transfiguration nor extremely fast Transfiguration (using extremely small volumes) circumvent the limits on Transfiguring air.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:37:38AM *  1 point [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Harry's wand is not already touching a suitable object for Transfiguration. Neither partial Transfiguration nor extremely fast Transfiguration of extremely small volumes lift the restriction against Transfiguring air, dust specks or surface films would need to be specifically seen, the tip of the wand is not touching his skin, and the definition of "touching the wand" starts at the boundary of the wand material.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:30:25PM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Free Transfiguration doesn't work like a superpower from Worm: it does not grant sensory feedback about the object being Transfigured, even if it does interpret the caster's idea of the target.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:24:09PM *  0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: At least in the limit of unusually thin and long objects, Transfiguration time actually scales as the product of the shortest local dimension with the square of the longest local dimension of the target, rather than the volume. Harry has not detected this because he was always Transfiguring volumes or areas, and McGonagall was mistaken.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:03:12PM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort, and some of the Death Eaters, have witnessed combat uses of the time-skewed Transfiguration featuring in Chapter 104. They will have appropriate reflexes to counter any attacks by partial Transfiguration which they could have countered if the attacks had been made using time-skewed Transfiguration.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:55:17AM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: It is not possible to Transfigure antimatter.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:51:50AM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Plans which depend on the use of partial Transfiguration, or Transfiguration of volumes small enough to complete at timescales smaller than that of mean free paths in air (order of 160 picoseconds?), to circumvent the limitation on Transfiguring air, will only qualify as valid if they contain an experimental test of the ability to Transfigure air, together with a backup plan which is among the best available in case it is not possible to Transfigure air.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 11:43:11AM 0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Plans which depend on Transfiguring antimatter will only qualify as valid if they contain an experimental test of the ability to Transfigure antimatter, together with a backup plan which is among the best available in case it is not possible to Transfigure antimatter.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 10:39:07AM *  0 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: There are more than two endings. A solution meeting the stated criteria is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the least sad ending.

If a viable solution is posted [...] the story will continue to Ch. 121.

Otherwise you will get a shorter and sadder ending.

Note that the referent of "Ch. 121" is not necessarily fixed in advance.

Counterargument: "I expect that the collective effect of 'everyone with more urgent life issues stays out of the effort' shifts the probabilities very little" suggests that reasonable prior odds of getting each ending are all close to 0 or 1, so any possible hidden difficulty thresholds are either very high or very low.

Counterargument: The challenge in Three Worlds Collide only had two endings.

Counterargument: A third ending would have taken additional writing effort, to no immediately obvious didactic purpose.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 01:00:42PM 1 point [-]

A necessary condition for a third ending might involve a solution that purposefully violates the criteria in some respect.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:52:40PM *  3 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort wants Harry to defeat him on this occasion. To get the best ending, Harry must defeat Voldemort, and then, before leaving the graveyard, identify a benefit that Voldemort gains by losing and deny him that benefit.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 12:20:49PM *  3 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: An intended solution involves, as a side-effect, Harry suffering a mortal affliction such as Transfiguration sickness or radiation poisoning, and is otherwise highly constrained. The proposed solution is close to this intended solution, and to match the other constraints, it must either include Harry suffering such an affliction with a plan to recover from it, or subject Harry to conditions where he would normally suffer such an affliction except that he has taken unusual measures to prevent it.

(This is one reading of the proviso, "evade immediate death".)

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 02 March 2015 10:54:07AM *  6 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort has made advance preparations which will thwart every potential plan of Harry's based on favorable tactical features or potential features of the situation which might reasonably be obvious to him. These include Harry's access to his wand, the Death Eaters' lack of armor enchantments or prepared shields, the destructive magic resonance, the Time-Turner, Harry's other possessions, Harry's glasses, the London portkey, a concealed Patronus from Hermione's revival, or Hermione's potential purposeful assistance. Any attempt to use these things will fail at least once and and will, absent an appropriate counter-strategy, immediately trigger lethal force against Harry.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 03 March 2015 12:07:26AM -1 points [-]

Semi-pessimistic assumption: Harry is in the Mirror, which has staged this conflict (perhaps on favorable terms) because it's stuck on the problem of figuring out what Tom Riddle's ideal world is.

Comment author: Steve_Rayhawk 03 March 2015 12:10:16AM -1 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption: Voldemort evaded the Mirror, and is watching every trick Harry's coming up with to use against his reflection.

Comment author: Romashka 02 March 2015 06:21:34PM *  -1 points [-]

Pessimistic assumption Voldemort should not be killed, since without him it will never be known if the Prophecy came true.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 01 March 2015 09:31:12PM *  6 points [-]

Its possible that the solution will have multiple steps, such as:

1) Stall for time by giving information on useful powers

2) Demand that vow requires Hermione is awakened so Harry can discuss the probability of him ending the world.

3) Hermione causes a distraction by slitting her wrists and running round shouting "Look at me! I'm bleeding silver blood everywhere but I'm not dying! How can it be?"

4) Harry triggers resonance cascade

5) Harry transfigures weapon

6) Harry kills everyone

7) Harry, badly wounded, drinks Hermione's unicorn blood to save him from death, killing Hermione in the process

8) Hermione comes back from the dead because of the Horocrux

9) Hermione uses the philosophers stone to permanently transfigure them both into unicorns

10) HPMOR turns into Harry Potter/MLP:FiM crossover fanfiction

Now, my question is this: does one review have to get every step absolutely correct? Or is it ok if ten reviews each get one step correct? What if a review starts "first stall for time - many other people have submitted excellent ideas for this, which I shall defer to."?

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 March 2015 03:37:23PM *  0 points [-]

10) HPMOR turns into Harry Potter/MLP:FiM crossover fanfiction

In other words, Bad Ending.

Comment author: narfanator 28 February 2015 11:09:39PM 6 points [-]

Thought some more, and I have some ideas.

One of the realizations I think I had is that magic recognizes divisions where there are none. PT being the prime example, but also the ability of armor to block spells. PT relies on removing the caster's understanding of divisions; what if there is a way to add divisions? If Harry can convince himself that his skin is not part of himself, will it block spells the way thick leather does?

Conversely, are there other divisions that open possibilities if removed? Like between people and the ground, or people and people?

Most thinking I'm reading about uses PT to create a weapon with which to attack, but attack is not the goal. Escape is. Means of escape fall into a few categories, I think: Figuring out something like Apparition on the spot, quantum tunnelling, or Newtonian. Right now I'm just going to think about "newtonian" - It's just as ridiculous for transfiguration to not include velocity as it is for it to only effect "discrete" objects. Can Harry simply add enough velocity to himself to escape? (Adding acceralation doesn't work, as enough to escape fast enough probably squishes him)

Here are crazier things:

  • There's good proper acausality in this universe. Coma-tea, time-turners, and the Stars spell. What's going on there? Is there some way to use that?

  • At first, there is evidence that changes to the body and brain effect the mind. But, there's also a pile of evidence that, under circumstances, it doesn't - Horcurxes, and both resurrections. What if Harry can detach his life/magic from his body?

Comment author: Unknowns 01 March 2015 05:35:08AM 0 points [-]

The Map says that Harry is Tom Riddle. So although it probably doesn't satisfy Eliezer, since you could say it is not "avoiding immediate death" in the physical sense, and it is not through his own efforts (Eliezer's stipulation), in reality the ending in which he survives could simply be they kill him as planned, he ends up in Tom Riddle's Horcrux network and can go and propose to someone that he take over his body at least temporarily.

Comment author: [deleted] 28 February 2015 09:35:57PM 6 points [-]

If you have any remotely good idea, post it as a fanfiction.net review. The currently extant ones are awful. Most don't even make sense.

Comment author: Benquo 28 February 2015 10:38:30PM 8 points [-]

Harry's assets:

  • Glasses - probably a distraction, but could be just about any nonhuman object, transfigured.
  • Cedric - probably in the mokeskin pouch, not easily accessible, probably only useful as a human shield, which is not Harry's style
  • Invisibility cloak - might be able to block the Killing Curse, useful in general, Harry is the Master of this Deathly Hallow, it's plausible but unlikely that he'd be able to Call it without words or gestures.
  • Voldemort's bargain - Voldemort has promised in Parseltongue to protect one person for each power Voldemort knows not that Harry names.
  • Partial transfiguration - both a Power Voldemort Knows Not and a tactical tool
  • Wand
  • Harry's own flesh (which he can use for partial transfiguration)
  • The air
  • The death eaters (including their robes, their bones, etc.)
  • Sirius ("Mr Grim")
  • Stuporfy

Foreshadowing / prior hints of resources:

  • Thick/heavy enough physical objects can block curses aside from the Killing Curse
  • Resonance between Harry's and Voldemort's magic more likely to harm/incapacitate Voldemort than Harry
  • Harry was instructed by Voldemort to cast Mahasu on any student in the classroom, chose himself. Foreshadows choosing to use promise of protection on himself?
  • Antimatter was mentioned earlier, Voldemort may not know enough about it yet.
  • Hermione transfigures a Buckytube
  • Use of Muggle devices
  • Harry's prior weakness is that he doesn't ask others for help
  • Harry decided to accept the idea that the air can't be transfigured before he figured out the insight necessary to do partial transfiguration, this could be wrong, the air as well as his flesh could be transfigurable
  • Prophecy about tearing apart the very stars (meaning Sirius and Bellatrix and Draco?)

Harry had to remove his left shoe, and take off the toe-ring that was his emergency portkey if someone kidnapped him and took him outside the wards of Hogwarts (and didn't put up anti-Apparition, anti-portkey, anti-phoenix, and anti-time-looping wards, which Severus had warned Harry that any inner-circle Death Eater would certainly do).

That seems to rule out apparition, portkeys, phoenixes, and time looping, so transfiguring a time turner into his hands is out, as is trying to get into a Phoenix frame of mind to summon Fawkes or another phoenix to send a message, or using his portkey.

"There are desks which are heavy enough to be fatal if dropped from a great height. There are chairs with metal legs that could impale someone if driven hard enough. The air in this classroom would be deadly by its absence, since people die in vacuum, and it can serve as a carrier for poison gases."

Harry had to stop briefly for breath, and into that pause Professor Quirrell said:

"That's three. You need ten. The rest of the class thinks that you've already used up the whole contents of the classroom."

"Ha! The floor can be removed to create a spike pit to fall into, the ceiling can be collapsed on someone, the walls can serve as raw material for Transfiguration into any number of deadly things - knives, say."

"That's six. But surely you're scraping the bottom of the barrel now?"

"I haven't even started! Just look at all the people! Having a Gryffindor attack the enemy is an ordinary use, of course -"

"I will not count that one."

"- but their blood can also be used to drown someone. Ravenclaws are known for their brains, but their internal organs could be sold on the black market for enough money to hire an assassin. Slytherins aren't just useful as assassins, they can also be thrown at sufficient velocity to crush an enemy. And Hufflepuffs, in addition to being hard workers, also contain bones that can be removed, sharpened, and used to stab someone."

By now the rest of the class was staring at Harry in some horror. Even the Slytherins looked shocked.

"That's ten, though I'm being generous in counting the Ravenclaw one. Now, for extra credit, one Quirrell point for each use of objects in this room which you have not yet named." Professor Quirrell favored Harry with a companionable smile. "The rest of your class thinks you are in trouble now, since you've named everything except the targets and you have no idea what may be done with those."

"Bah! I've named all the people, but not my robes, which can be used to suffocate an enemy if wrapped around their head enough times, or Hermione Granger's robes, which can be torn into strips and tied into a rope and used to hang someone, or Draco Malfoy's robes, which can be used to start a fire -"

"Three points," said Professor Quirrell, "no more clothing now."

"My wand can be pushed into an enemy's brain through their eye socket" and someone made a horrified, strangling sound.

"Four points, no more wands."

"My wristwatch could suffocate someone if jammed down their throat -"

"Five points, and enough."

"Hmph," Harry said. "Ten Quirrell points to one House point, right? You should have let me keep going until I'd won the House Cup, I haven't even started yet on the unaccustomed uses of everything I've got in my pockets" or the mokeskin pouch itself and he couldn't talk about the Time-Turner or the invisibility cloak but there had to be something he could say about those red spheres...

This vaguely suggests a few options:

  • Harry could improvise a dark ritual to sacrifice some of his internal organs to "hire an assassin" (counting on some sort of magical healing afterwards).
  • Susan Bones might also be in the pouch ("Hufflepuff [...] Bones"). Note that the real Susan Bones was not with the other students who encountered Snape in the corridor.
  • Harry likely knows of some efficient poisonous gases, if he can hold his breath for long enough he can simply transfigure part of himself into one of these and wait for the Death Eaters to drop.
  • Harry could somehow try to cast a spell on Voldemort to invoke the resonance, push him in a direction that disrupts the semicircle of Death Eaters.
  • Harry could transfigure the air around him into a thick physical barrier that blocks everything except the Killing Curse.

Ignoring the gasps rising from behind him, Harry crossed the radius of the Patronuses, strode to a single pace from Death. Its unhindered fear burst around him like a whirlpool, like stepping next to the sucking drain of some huge bathtub emptying out its water; but with the false Patronuses no longer obscuring the level on which they interacted, Harry could reach the Dementor even as it could reach him. Harry looked straight into the pulling vacuum and -

the Earth among the stars

all his triumph at saving Hermione

someday the reality of which you are a shadow will cease to exist

Harry took all the silver emotion that fueled his Patronus Charm and shoved it at the Dementor; and expected Death's shadow to flee from him -

  • and as Harry did that, he flung his hands up and shouted "BOO!"

The void retreated sharply away from Harry until it came up against the dark stone behind.

Harry can sort of wandlessly wordlessly cast something like a Patronus, he could try to do something like this to Voldemort.

Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line... (black robes, falling) ...blood spills out in litres, and someone screams a word.

This strongly suggests a Buckytube monofilament whipped around to decapitate all the Death Eaters. This is the most plausible solution, and it's somewhat compatible with the other Partial Transfiguration option, which is to tell Voldemort about it in exchange for protecting Harry's life (and to buy time). This is also compatible with Harry's glasses being a transfigured shield (or transfigured charmed magical shield, in either case there's no reason someone couldn't have just magically LASIK-ed his vision), which would give him a defense against any non-Killing Curse spells that go his way from anyone he doesn't immediately kill. Then he lunges for (or accios) the pouch and cloak, retrieving Hufflepuff (Susan) Bones and Cedric, to help him fight the remaining Death Eaters (or go for help). Then he casts a Patronus to get McGonagall (and insists she not disrupt the game).

Ah, better yet - the glasses should be his broomstick. Or his broomstick AND a shield. AND a gas mask. Fit together (since glasses are composite objects anyway).

OK, so here's the attack plan, to tear apart Voldemort's plan at every possible point of intervention:

1) While transfiguring a long buckytube monofilament out of his own flesh, tell Voldemort about partial transfiguration, demand that Harry himself be saved in return.

2) Wordlessly cast the Patronus at Voldemort to try to throw him off balance - as a bonus, if he manages a worldess wandless corporeal Patronus it can do step 5 early, OR possibly block a Killing Curse (not sure).

3) Whip the buckytube around to slice through a bunch of Death Eaters. Simultaneously, wordlessly wandlessly finite incantatem the glasses to detransfigure his broomstick.

4) Fly to (or accio while dodging curses) the pouch, extract Susan and Cedric, put on the cloak. They know from battle class that they should lift the sleep spell on their ally Hermione. (Harry shouldn't since it would be an interaction with Voldemort's magic that would be more likely to harm Harry than Voldemort.)

5) Cast a Patronus to get help from McGonagall (who can use her time turner so as not to disrupt the game), telling her to bring every competent battle mage she can get.

6) Cast Stuporfy at Voldemort to try and trigger the magical resonance, then fly straight at him to give him a hug.

Comment author: ChaosMote 01 March 2015 12:47:23PM 4 points [-]

I don't believe leveraging Voldemort's bargain will work the way you suggest, because Parseltongue does not enforce promises, only honesty. When Harry demands that he himself be saved, Voldemort can simply say "No."

Comment author: Benquo 02 March 2015 03:01:26AM 1 point [-]

Right - but how low do you think the probability is, and what's the best action it displaces?

Comment author: dxu 28 February 2015 08:51:57PM 8 points [-]

Question for EY:

In the chapter, you wrote:

If a viable solution is posted before 12:01AM Pacific Time (8:01AM UTC) on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2015, the story will continue.

Does this mean that the reader-suggested solution will in fact be used, or will the story simply continue with the solution you originally had in mind?

Comment author: Jost 28 February 2015 08:51:18PM 19 points [-]

If you can think of any trick that I have missed in being sure that Harry Potter's threat is ended, speak now and I shall reward you handsomely... speak now, in Merlin's name!"

Voldemort forgot a very basic ”trick”: disarming Harry first.

At the end of chapter 112, we wondered about that, too. It turns out that Harry needed to have the wand to perform the vow. With that out of the way … why does Harry still have his wand? Is this just because Eliezer wants to make sure that Harry still has a way out? Or is there some in-universe reason for Voldemort to allow this?

Comment author: JenniferRM 01 March 2015 05:11:18AM *  15 points [-]

Just finished reading. Wow! This story is so bleak. I suspect Voldemort just "identity raped" Harry into becoming an Unfriendly Intelligence? Or at least a grossly grossly suboptimal one. Harry himself seems to be dead.

I'm going to call him HarryPrime now, because I think the mind contained in Riddle2/Harry's body before and after this horror was perpetrated should probably not be modeled as "the same person" as just prior to it.

HarryPrime is based on Harry (sort of like an uploaded and modified human simulation is based on a human) but not the same, because he has been imbued with a mission that he must implacably pursue, that has Harry's identity (and that of the still unconscious(!) and never interviewed(!) Hermione) woven into it as part of its motivational structure, in a sort of twist on coherent extraplotated volition.

"if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, had grown up farther together"

Versus how "old Harry" and "revived Hermione" were "#included" into the motivational structure of HarryPrime:

Unless this very Vow itself is somehow leading into the destruction of the world, in which case, Harry Potter, you must ignore it in that particular regard. You will not trust yourself alone in making such a determination, you must confide honestly and fully in your trusted friend, and see if that one agrees. Such is this Vow's meaning and intent. It forces only such acts as Harry Potter might choose himself, having learned that he is a prophesied instrument of destruction.

My estimate of Voldemort's intelligence just dropped substantially. He is well trained and in the fullness of his power, but he isn't wise... at all. I'd been modeling him as relatively sane, because of past characterization, but I didn't predict this at all.

(There are way better ways to get a hypothetical HarryPrime to "not do things" than giving him a mission as an unstoppable risk mitigation robot. If course, prophesy means self consistent time travel is happening in the story, and self consistent time travel nearly always means that at least some characters will be emotionally or intellectually blinded to certain facts (so that they do the things that bring about the now-inevitable future) unless they are explicitly relying on self consistency to get an outcome they actively desire, so I guess Voldemort's foolishness is artistically forgivable :-P

Also, still going meta on the story, this is a kind of beautiful way to "spend" the series... bringing it back to AI risk mitigation themes in such a powerfully first person way. "You [the reader identifying with the protagonist] have now been turned by magic into an X-risk mitigation robot!")

Prediction: It makes sense now why Riddle2/HarryPrime will tear apart the stars in heaven. They represent small but real risks. He has basically been identity raped into becoming a sort of Pierson's Pupeeteer (from Larry Niven's universe) on behalf of Earth rather than on behalf of himself, and in Niven's stories the puppeteer's evolved cowardice (because they evolved from herd animals, and are ruled by "the hindmost" rather than a "leader") forced them into minor planetary engineering.

As explained in Le Wik:

"In short, we found that a sun was a liability rather than an asset. We moved our world to a tenth of a light year's distance, keeping the primary only as an anchor. We needed the farming worlds and it would have been dangerous to let our world wander randomly through space. Otherwise we would not have needed a sun at all.

"We had brought suitable worlds from nearby systems, increasing our agricultural worlds to four, and setting them in a Kemplerer Rosette."

Prediction: HarryPrime's first line will be better than any in the LW thread where people talked about the one sentence ai box experiment. Eliezer read that long ago and has thought a lot about the general subject.


Something I'm still not sure about is what exactly HarryPrime will be aiming for. I think that's where Eliezer retains some play in his control over whether the ending is very short and bleak or longer and less bleak.

Voldemort kept talking about "destruction of the world" and "destroying the world" and so on. He didn't say the planet had to have to have people on it, but he might not have been talking about the planet. "The world" in normal speech often seems to mean in practice something like "the social world of the humans who are salient to us". Like in the USA people will often talk about "no one in the world does X" but there are people in other countries who do, and if someone points this out they will be accused of quibbling. Similarly, we tend to talk about "saving the earth" and it doesn't really mean the mantle or the core, it primarily means the biosphere and the economy and humans and stuff.

From my perspective, this was the key flaw of the intent:

But all Harry Potter's foolishness, all his recklessness, all his grandiose schemes and good intentions - he shall not risk them leading to disaster! He shall not gamble with the Earth's fate!

The literal text appears to be:

I shall not by any act of mine destroy the world. I shall take no chances in not destroying the world. If my hand is forced, I may take the course of lesser destruction over greater destruction unless it seems to me that this Vow itself leads to the world's end, and the friend in whom I have confided honestly [ie Hermione] agrees that this is so.

And then the errata and full intention was:

You will swear, Harry Potter, not to destroy the world, to take no risks when it comes to not destroying the world.

This Vow may not force you into any positive action, on account of that, this Vow does not force your hand to any stupidity... We must be cautious that this Vow itself does not bring that prophecy about.

We dare not let this Vow force Harry Potter to stand idly after some disaster is already set in motion by his hand, because he must take some lesser risk if he tries to stop it.

Nor must the Vow force him to choose a risk of truly vast destruction, over a certainty of lesser destruction.

But all Harry Potter's foolishness, all his recklessness, all his grandiose schemes and good intentions - he shall not risk them leading to disaster!

He shall not gamble with the Earth's fate!

No researches that might lead to catastrophe! No unbinding of seals, no opening of gates!

Unless this very Vow itself is somehow leading into the destruction of the world, in which case, Harry Potter, you must ignore it in that particular regard.

You will not trust yourself alone in making such a determination, you must confide honestly and fully in your trusted friend, and see if that one agrees.

In the shorter and sadder ending, I think it is likely that HarryPrime will escape, but not really care about people, and become an optimizing preservation agent of the mere planet. Thus Harry might escape the box and then start removing threats to the physical integrity of the earth's biosphere.

Also the "trusted friend" stuff is dangerous if Hermione doesn't wake up with a healthy normal mind. In canon, resurrection tended to create copies of what the resurrector remembered of a person, not the person themselves.

In the less sad ending I hope/think that HarryPrime will retain substantial overlap with the original Harry, Hermione will be somewhat OK, and the oath will only cause HarryPrime to be constrained in limited and reasonably positive ways. Maybe he will be risk averse. Maybe he will tear apart the stars because they represent a danger to the earth. Maybe he will exterminate every alien in the galaxy that could pose a threat to the earth. Maybe he will constrain the free will of every human on earth to not allow them to put the earth at risk... but he will still sorta be "the old Harry" while doing so.

Comment author: Dorikka 01 March 2015 09:32:26AM 4 points [-]

In the shorter and sadder ending, I think it is likely that HarryPrime will escape, but not really care about people, and become an optimizing preservation agent of the mere planet. Thus Harry might escape the box and then start removing threats to the physical integrity of the earth's biosphere.

I'm curious just how dark Eliezer could make such an ending, if he were inspired to try as hard as possible without concern for other goals/strategy. 'Twould be an interesting read.

Comment author: Transfuturist 02 March 2015 06:59:24AM 1 point [-]

Hopefully some kind soul will come along and grace us with this spin-off.

Comment author: JenniferRM 01 March 2015 10:09:07AM 4 points [-]

Maybe it would be intellectually interesting, but I'm not sure I'd want to read it... it has been a long time since I was into the horror genre.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 February 2015 10:03:04PM 19 points [-]

(Not a serious suggestion)

Using the Axiom of Choice and partial transfiguration, Harry divides himself into two exact copies, one of which is killed by the Death Eaters and the other of which escapes.

Comment author: solipsist 01 March 2015 04:43:32AM 7 points [-]

If you can tell me exactly how to do something, Harry is allowed to think of it. But it does not serve as a solution to say, for example, "Harry should persuade Voldemort to let him out of the box" if you can't yourself figure out how.

Mathematical progress ground to a standstill in March of 2015, when thousands of researches abandoned their work to search for a constructive proof of the Banach–Tarski theorem.

Comment author: TobyBartels 01 March 2015 09:59:11AM 4 points [-]

It's a little vague how to define ‘constructive’, but we pretty much already know that there isn't one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solovay_model

Comment author: Unknowns 03 March 2015 04:13:42AM 1 point [-]

"Having made the Unbreakable Vow, it is impossible for me to engage in motivated reasoning which would put the world at risk, while it is entirely possible for you to do so. I am convinced that you are more likely to fulfill the prophecy by killing me than by letting me live. Since my reasoning is not and cannot be motivated in such a way as to put the world at risk, while yours can be, it is more likely that I am right, and it would be to your advantage not to kill me."

Comment author: William_Quixote 02 March 2015 09:22:25PM 2 points [-]

Posted-

This is a two step solution. The first part succeeds or fails deterministically. If the first part fails the fallback comes into play and that succeeds or fails probabilistically, so you may need to generate a pseudo random number to evaluate this proposal.

Part 1: this part uses partial transfiguration and his newly practiced skills from the 6th year textbook.

Harry must transfigure something touching his wand, so the object transfigured is a small patch of skin touching his wand. He will probably lose that bit of skin when the transfiguration wears off, but this should be acceptable and non fatal.

The object he transfigures the skin into is as follows: A minimally thin thread (maybe a carbon nanotube) going down to the ground, the the thread continues along the ground to the time turner. It then goes through the space in the hinge / snap of the shell into the interior of the shell (the thread may have to get very thin to accomplish this, but the case is described as snapping into place in chapter 18, so it is not truely seamless). Once inside the time turner shell the thread splits into two strands one wraps around the inside of the shell, thickens to be sturdy and attaches itself to the inside by transfiguring sticky bits. The other wraps around the time turner itself thickens up and then attaches itself by transfiguring some sticky bits. Lastly various rods or threads extend to push / pull the inner ring vs the outer ring. Since we know that you can transfigure against tensions this will allow Harry to rotate the time turner inside its shell without the outside of the shell moving (we know from Azkaban that this works). Once the time turned has been turned, Harry will jump back in time by one hour since the time turner is being held by Harry's hand and turned by his hand (the thread is a part of Harry's finger that's been transfigured). Once Harry is alone in the graveyard an hour in the past he has escaped the immediate danger and has time to plan.

Advantages of this plan are that it involves no visible motion of any kind. Partial transfiguration is wordless, and his hand is already touching his wand. The thread is too small / thin to see, and the macro part of the transfiguration happens inside the time turner's shell where it is not visible. The evidence in the book this far is that transfiguration time is gated by the volume of the target, this is a low volume transfiguration so it should be quick. The other advantage of this plan is that it's non interactive. It doesn't involve talking with anyone, penetrating shields or otherwise rely on interactions working out a particular way.

Fallback plan - part 2: if for some reason the above doesn't work (and it should work, but it's always good to have a plan B) Harry should decide that now is the time to free the prisoners of Azkaban, and in his innermost emotional core reach out to the Phoenixs of the world asking them to teleport him to Azkaban.

Harry turned down his choice so he will never be master of a Phoenix like Dumbledore was, but a Phoenix might still help him. Faux helped Hermione when she wanted to be a hero even though he wasn't eligible to give someone a choice at the time. So we have evidence that a Phoenix is capable of helping someone outside of that context. We also know that a Phoenix can remotely detect the intent to help a problem or even the strong consideration of helping. So a Phoenix would be capable of detecting Harry's choice to free the prisoners, and it would be capable of teleporting him there, and it might want to.

So then the question is, will a Phoenix want to help, so far we've seen 2 and both birds seemed interested in the Azkaban problem, but it's probably a biased sample.

Let N be the number of in universe Phoenixs. The author knows or can estimate this number as the creator of te universe, I've got no clue. Let P be the probability that a given Phoenix would decide to help Harry save the prisoners by teleporting him to Azkaban. Again the writer knows this number better than me, but I think the textual evidence suggest it's non zero. Then the chance of success is (1-(1-P)^n) since it's an or relationship, fail is the AND condition of each and every Phoenix individually choosing not to help. If the author has not previously determined value functions for each and every Phoenix then the best way to evaluate if this plan succeeds is to use God knowledge to estimate P and N and then generate a random number.

I note that although the long term life expectancy of someone teleported to the heart of Azkaban may not be great, it would technically meet the exam passing condition of evading immediate death. That said, step 2 is mostly a last ditch effort that relies on some luck, if it were my life, I would be relying on part 1 to save me.

Comment author: SilentCal 02 March 2015 08:03:46PM 3 points [-]

Posted on ff.net: Harry realizes that his true power the Dark Lord knows not is his ambition to master the fundamentals of magic, in contrast with how proud of himself Voldemort was for developing one original ritual. Harry cannot explain this to Voldemort-that would go against his Vow. However, he can drop some very juicy teasers in Parseltongue; in particular, he can imply that his secret holds the cure to Voldemort's ennui. It might go something like (in Parseltongue):

"Though you are ambitiouss, you have no ambition. That iss true power Dark Lord knowss not-my ambition. I could purssue ssafely, but cannot trusst you will, sso cannot tell. Do not think can devisse ssafe hint in time I am given. Keep me alive, and perhapss ssomeday I can sshare-maybe I create ssafe hint, maybe I ssee change in you, or come to believe it besst that you know. Or kill me, and learn how long killing idiotss sstayss interessting. Conditionss for creating another like me may not be as ssimple as you think"

Comment author: lerjj 02 March 2015 09:15:58PM 2 points [-]

My model of Voldemort is highly risk averse when it comes to existential risk. His response to this is to laugh at having been told he has no ambition, then to kill Harry.

Voldemort trusts himself not to destroy the world, just the same way as Harry trusts himself. Maybe we shouldn't be so trusting of either.

Comment author: TylerJay 02 March 2015 07:07:31PM 2 points [-]

Here's another object-level tactic I haven't seen mentioned yet. (Assume LV will not just kill Harry for speaking of non-magical powers. I have a way of increasing the likelihood of this assumption being true)

Harry could explain the Power of Expected Utility Calculations and subtly attempt a Pascal's Mugging on LV, convincing him that LV can't possibly assign a probability of less than one in twenty that killing Harry will indeed avert the prophecy, or for that matter cause it, and that the rational action to take is to not kill Harry. He can present it as a "power" to stop the timer and buy a life, regardless of if LV accepts the conclusion, since it is a valuable tool for the future and was probably not in the books Harry gave him to read.

Harry can also explain the Power of Bayesian Probability Updates, both to buy a life and to provide a framework within which to argue that the probability that LV killing Harry backfires is much higher than he previously expected. If the Mugging alone doesn't work, then Harry can combine this with EV calculations to construct a valid argument that LV shouldn't kill him.

I'm starting to develop a way to chain this with some other arguments and strategies into a cohesive strategy and I'm starting to feel pretty good about it. Thoughts?

Comment author: Manfred 02 March 2015 07:32:40PM 4 points [-]

Yeah, this is basically the route I'd do. Except I added one more ingredient. Here, I'll just quote my review.

Ramble to Voldemort about how you have a better knowledge of decision-making systems and scientific research, and about how if you do destroy the world, it won't be because you have some world-destroying-property, it will be a result of bad actions - actions that Voldemort, who is starting to learn muggle science, might take just as easily. Indeed this seems likely, since you make such similar decisions, and he may find the prophecy talking about him instead.

If he really wants to stop the prophecy, the way is not to very thoroughly kill one child, the way is to understand the causal path that leads to bad things happening, no matter who does it, and divert it. For this, it would be beneficial if he had you, Harry, alive and well. In fact, you have several ideas already, which for obvious bargaining reasons you will not mention. Since this is fairly honest, you can even say something in parseltongue about how this increases his chances of survival, playing on Tom Riddle's overriding fear of death.

Then, when he's distracted considering this, kick him in the grill.

Comment author: TylerJay 03 March 2015 11:44:27AM 1 point [-]

Nice. I like it.

I expanded my previous post in a full solution (very long) with a pretty thorough line of reasoning. In the end, I convinced myself that Voldemort is not acting in his self-interest by killing Harry and that he's dangerously overconfident in his understanding of the Prophecy and his ability to avert it. Here are the relevant excerpts from my solution:

Tell Voldie that original prophecy ("born as the seventh month dies...") has not yet been fulfilled, and argue that this calls for rethinking killing Harry because attempting to kill him might cause this prophecy to come true in a bad way and might provide mechanism for "remnant" of Harry to survive and fulfill second prophecy. [Evidence: Snape said "No, I would know if it were fulfilled." Apparently, neither Dumbles or Minnie found anything strange with the idea that "If it were complete, it would make sense to me," so that's likely a known/plausible attribute of prophecies.] LV was very sure that he understood it enough to take risky action that time, but was wrong. "Seems you learned wrong lesson from previous mistake with prophecy, teacher." Argue that it was lack of understanding of previous prophecy that led to loss of LV's first body, not the act of trying to turn it to his advantage.

LV's actions now are driven solely by prophecy. Just as before, it will make him fall victim to it. How can you not realize you're actions are being completely determined by what you heard?

Tell LV that he strongly believes that things will turn out badly for LV and the Prophecy will not be averted if he tries to kill him (Harry never meant to end his immortality, just temporarily disembody him [so the curse is still in play and LV cannot kill Harry, though my solution has Harry not share this information])

Harry has heard a third prophecy that seems to indicate that Harry will survive beyond this day. It's better not to tempt fate. (...and 3 their devices...)

If still haven't gotten him to give in and spare you: "Okay, seriously? You're Trying to tell me that you still assign a greater than 50% probability to the idea that killing me here tonight is in your best interests?"

Eventually, LV will tell him the prophecy. If not, Harry can just go from his (correct) best guess based on what he heard ("Tear apart the very s-") Stars? Sun? His first 2 thoughts when hearing it, narrowed down to Stars from Firenze's comments, and deducing the "End the world" part from the fact that his mother said the world would end if Lilly were nice to her sister and the fact that Firenze called him "Son of Lilly".

Explain that he's pretty sure it says he will tear apart the very stars and that it will be the end of the world [...] Harry explains Star Lifting, Dyson Spheres, and the amount of energy required for interstellar travel or other futuristic technologies. If that's what the prophecy means, which is way more likely than anything else at this point, since what LV was really doing was not "snipping all threads of destiny" but constraining the solution-space. If he tries/succeeds in killing Harry, then the prophecy will still come true, but neither of them would have any control over how it happened, because all choice has been removed. And, knowing the nature of Prophecy, that's how bad things happen. So wouldn't it be better to work together toward making sure the world doesn't end and that Wizardkind gets a way to escape the Planet Earth, just like Voldie wants? Even if somehow Voldie manages to kill Harry tonight and the prophecy just doesn't happen which has never happened in the history of ever, what amount of diminishing pleasure from torturing idiots could possibly be worth more than all that? And at that point, once they've solved permanent death for everyone, people will probably want to play War with You. They'll be lining up by the thousands. Every clever person on the planet will want to try their skills against Lord Voldemort. I'll play War against you for as long as you want! It'll be fun! That's the kind of fun you can only really have in a post-scarcity, post-death society.

Comment author: Plasmon 02 March 2015 05:43:58PM *  1 point [-]

I make the following prediction : the transfiguration exercise of ch. 104 foreshadows the possibility of safely transfiguring a certain kind of explosive, that relies on containing several components that will explode upon contact. The ch. 104 exercise tells us that containment chambers can be formed first, and their contents afterwards, such that the bomb will not accidentally explode during transfiguration.

Comment author: WalterL 02 March 2015 05:37:47PM 4 points [-]

I regard fighting as futile (can't speak magic without death eaters attacking, can't cast worldess magic without Voldemort sensing through resonance and shooting). Harry must lose.

Voldemort is only killing him because of the prophecy. Harry should ask to hear the prophecy, so that if he is ever reborn somehow he can avoid it. Voldemort will probably tell him, hard to think how giving information about the destruction of the world to Harry could hurt it, since he's taken the Vow and now can only threaten the world through ignorance.

Once Harry hears the prophecy he can point out that there is no reason (beyond the coincidental timing) to think that he is the person referred to in it. If Voldemort agrees, and no longer NEEDS Harry's death, then Harry offers to earn his life by serving Voldemort with another Unbreakable Vow insuring his loyalty.

Harry, if not the World-Ender, would be super-valuable to Voldemort as: 1. False opposition figure to lure in and betray opponents 2. World-Safety-Vowed Science Czar in the new regime, in charge of monitoring Muggle and Wizard breakthroughs and making certain they don't interfere with the earth's new role as Voldemort's idiot-hunting range. 3. Bodyguard vs. Dementors

If Voldemort accepts, Harry goes through with this, and becomes the Dark Lord's Vowed servant, thereby surviving this crisis. As for the future? Perhaps the horse will learn to sing.

Comment author: EGI 02 March 2015 05:29:56PM 7 points [-]

Here is my stab at a solution (already posted at ffnet):

First Harry tells V. that Dementors are death, Patronuses work by not thinking about death and the true Patronus works by using a diferent mindstate which V. probably cannot attain (without specifics). Second Harry states that as long as Dementors are around every person including V have in each moment a small but finite probability to be kissed by one. Over an indefinite timeframe the aggregate probaility that V. is kissed approaches one. How this would interact with V's Horkruxes is unclear but he may easily suffer a fate worse than death. Therfore he should keep Harry around at least until the dementors are dealt with.

Then he points out that given what he knows about the ambiguity of prophecies the prophecy V. heard has probably not clearly identified that Harry and not V. is the threat. Thus V. killing Harry might easily doom the world. This is especially likely as V. is not bound by the vow. Thus V. should keep Harry around to guard against his own mistakes and probably take a similar vow. He himself may offer more vows to further Vs goals in exchange for V. vowing to further Harry's goals and so on. This should be beneficial for even a purely selfish V. who wants the world to survive.

In case V. is not convinced by his above offer of cooperation Harry uses the time they are talking to prepare for an attack on V. and the Death Eaters using partial transfiguration: Thinking about venues for attack he first thinks about transfiguring an invisible nanoweapon such as a monofilament knife to decapitate the death eaters. Though he quickly realizes that that will not work since no known material including carbonanotubes is stiff enough to form an invisible blade of several meters length. Independently acting nanobots are out too, because he lacks time and knoledge to design one let alone test them for safety and efficiency. Then he realizes he does not need them, because partial transfiguration can do everything a nanobot could and even more.

He points his wand to a patch of skin on his leg and starts to transfigure the stratum corneum. An invisible bundle of carbonanotubes extends from his skin to the ground branches out to each death eater running up their robes and into their necks. (They do not feel this, since the bundle of tubes has a crossection of only 50 nm. Pain or touch receptors would not pick that up.) Another branch extends to the Dark Lord, but Harry does not dare touch him with his construct fearing the resonance. Instead he builds a small tower form the ground using carbonanotubes in a pattern resembling the Eiffel Tower extending right into the muzzle of his gun (Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line...). He seals the muzzle with a thin sheet of carbonanotubes and fills the barrel with nitroglycerine contained by a second thin sheet of carbonanotubes just before the bullet. All of this is very low volume and quickly transfigured.

If the Dark Lord refuses cooperation he snaps his fingers and immeadetly extends the tube in each of the death eaters neck to severe the brainstem from the spinal cord, the language center from the brain (to prevent wordless, wandless magic) and the neck from the body (black robes, falling). To make sure that everything is properly seperated he turns his entire construct (except for the part in Vs gun) into pressurised air (...blood spills out in litres,...). Now the Dark Lord either surenders or fires his gun. ...and Harry screams a word: "rennervate" and points at Hermione to wake her up. Hermione stunns V. Even if V. fired he should not die immeadetly except if part of the gun passed through his brain. Hermione transfigures V. into a small stone to prevent him from dying and thus from coming back. Afterwards they transfigure the Death Eaters for eventual revival.

I wrote multiple redundant plans, because I genuinely think Harry should be able to convince V. to cooperate for purely selfish reasons. But even if V. is not only rational and selfish but "For the Evulz" Evil and thus refuses, the transfiguration attack should secure Harrys victory.

Comment author: wobster109 02 March 2015 04:21:14PM 3 points [-]

I'm so confused about the wand. Why does Harry still have the wand? Obviously Voldemort should have demanded that Harry drop the wand before giving him 60 seconds to speak.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 02 March 2015 04:13:07PM 2 points [-]

Also,question. Do our suggestions need to be posted on fanfiction.net, or does this thread count?

Comment author: Astazha 02 March 2015 07:21:58PM 2 points [-]

fanfiction.net

Comment author: TuviaDulin 02 March 2015 04:10:08PM *  3 points [-]

"You needed worthy opponentss,"

Comment author: Illano 02 March 2015 03:29:32PM 4 points [-]

Harry needs to lose. He needs to drop his wand, kneel down, and say in Parseltongue, "I loosssse." Quirrel has already set up several tests that Harry has failed by refusing to lose. By proving that he can indeed lose, instead of continuing to escalate the conflict until the stars themselves are at risk, he may be able to pass LVs final test.

Comment author: Velorien 02 March 2015 03:33:11PM 2 points [-]

Surely following Voldemort's exact instructions and giving up his secrets would equally count as losing, without risking annoying Voldemort and getting killed or punished if your hypothesis is wrong?

Comment author: Illano 02 March 2015 04:00:54PM 1 point [-]

Of course, that would count as losing as well. I just think he needs to explicitly acknowledge that he is losing, so that Voldemort doesn't think he is secretly plotting something else.

I'm just worried that this is all a big setup, and the 37 "Death Eaters" are really Harry's allies in disguise and Imperiused, so any attempt to get out will cause Harry to end up killing all of his friends and put him on the true path towards destroying the stars. There was enough potential foreshadowing for this to be true.

-They aren't wearing the correct battle armor, only a hastily transfigured replica.

-LV explicitly said he expected Harry's friends to show up later than they did (which could mean they were supposed to be there for this ritual).

-The two main ones I've heard people talk about seem to be Lucius Malfoy and Sirius Black, both of whom are arguably now Harry's allies.

Comment author: Astazha 02 March 2015 07:24:14PM 1 point [-]

They all showed up when the Dark Mark was called, only one of them has a transfigured mask replica, and no Death Eaters are likely to be allies to Harry since Voldemort can apparently just will them into seven smoldering pieces at any time.

Comment author: Illano 02 March 2015 07:38:58PM 1 point [-]

Yes, but who called the Dark Mark, and pointed out the transfigured mask. It could all be a ruse by LV. Constant Vigilance!

Comment author: [deleted] 02 March 2015 11:19:09AM *  1 point [-]

V's giving his gun to one of his followers (who are blood purists, not muggle technology experts, and probably haven't ever fired a gun) suggests that he is still unable to "raise hand or wand against" Harry, for whatever reason.

If Harry can cause himself to appear to be V, the Death Eaters will presumably be confused enough to give him time to act (given that V cannot disable Harry himself). Harry can then use magical resonance to cause V to turn into a snake and/or explode, convincing the Death Eaters that he is really V.

The hole in this plan is that I can't think of a way for Harry to pull it off. He doesn't have any wordless, wandless illusion magic, unless I'm overlooking something, and transfiguration would be too slow. Any suggestions or objections?

Comment author: Epictetus 02 March 2015 09:50:05AM 1 point [-]

Might get around to posting a solution. Here's the direction I'm headed:

I think I have a reasonable timetable that can be found in this post. I figure there's at most an hour and a half left until Harry leaves the Quiddich game. I don't expect the cavalry to save the day, but it imposes a time restriction.

Cedric is a wild card here. If he were to accompany Harry then we probably would have learned of it by now. Otherwise, he may have been asked to raise the alarm should Harry fail to return in a timely manner, so I think it's safe to suppose that the time restriction is tight.

If Voldemort can be given a reason to keep Harry alive beyond the 90-minute mark, he'll have to change venue and resume the conversation in another place. Possible topics of discussion are partial transfiguration, Patronus 2.0, and the dangers of meddling with prophecies. Bonus points for invoking the Unbreakable Vow to get Voldemort to awaken Hermione.

Second possibility is to escape. Harry does have that portkey after all. Voldemort did mention having some of his own wards in the area, but the Death Eaters were able to apparate in just fine and Harry, being Tom Riddle, may be able to bypass them as well. The problem is that the reader doesn't know exactly where that portkey is. It may require access to Harry's bag. That means he has to arrange a diversion without getting blown to bits or else has to go back to the talking plan.

Third possibility is to defeat the Death Eaters and Voldemort. I've seen a number of suggestions along the lines of partial transfiguration. I'm inclined to reject this possibility. It has been established in canon that a good Legilimens can detect someone forming a spell in his mind. I don't know that Harry can concentrate on a complex transfiguration while carrying on a conversation and blocking Voldemort from his mind.

Now regarding Dumbledore. There's a reason why he chose to spare Harry knowing that he'd end up in Voldemort's hands. There's something afoot here but I can't place my finger on it. I also wonder whether Dumbledore can leave the mirror. Phoenixes were rumored to come from the mirror and Dumbledore does have one of those...

Comment author: Sheaman3773 02 March 2015 04:35:25PM 1 point [-]

Do note that Voldemort cannot actually use Legilimency on Harry, due to magical resonance.

Not only would this be expected due to how the effect has manifested in the past, but EY has also confirmed that this was the original reason for the resonance in the first place.

It could be possible for a Death Eater to do so in his stead, but I do not think it at all likely without further orders from Voldemort, given his explicit desire for privacy in their conversation.

Regarding Dumbledore's decision, it could simply be that (due to the prophesy) he believed Harry the only one who could defeat Voldemort, and so the loss of Harry would mean that his own presence would be useless in that regard. Better a minuscule chance of saving the world than none at all.

Comment author: Epictetus 02 March 2015 10:12:44AM 1 point [-]

Addendum: being as Voldemort hadn't done much testing on his Horcrux network and Harry is Tom Riddle, it may be possible for Harry to die and still be able to return using said Horcrux network.

Comment author: konnifer 02 March 2015 09:49:20AM *  14 points [-]

I have noticed many descriptors of the time, sky and moon in the story recently. I think they might be a clue.

At the Quidditch match:

  • "June in Scotland meant plenty of daylight; sunset wasn't until ten."

  • "As the sun set and Harry started using Lumos to read his books"

  • "And as the stars began to come out"

  • "Harry glanced at his watch - eleven-oh-four at night. Harry was now reading a sixth-year Transfiguration textbook; or rather he'd weighted the book open, illuminated by a Muggle glowstick,"

At the graveyard:

  • "The moon above was over three-quarters full, already seeming bright with night not fully fallen."

  • "gleaming darkly beneath the fading twilight sky"

  • "A tall form rested upon the altar, and even in the dimming twilight it looked too pale."

  • "Red eyes gleamed beneath the fading twilight,"

  • "on a twilight-lit stone altar."

  • "The twilight sky had dimmed further"

  • "but the moonlight was too faint for certainty"

  • "Harry saw by the moonlight that they all now lay in another heap by the altar"

  • "The gibbous moon riding higher in the cloudless sky, the stars and wash of the Milky Way visible in all their majesty within the darkness"

If it is fully dark, it must be well past 10pm, as the text says the sun sets at 10pm. Harry left the quidditch match shortly after 11.04pm to prepare for his quest, so he could be missed or quidditch-disrupting-events could happen any time after that. Despite this, we are assured the cavalry is not coming. If it were past 11pm, what else would have to be true to know that the cavalry isn't coming?

So I did some research.

Moonlight chart

Definitions of 'shades' of twilight as shown in chart

To my surprise, my research indicates that the night never gets to 'astronomical twilight' in Scotland on the night of June 13-14. The sun sets for several hours, but doesn't go more than 12 degrees below the horizon. The sun needs to go more than 18 degrees below the horizon for the silhouette of the horizon to disappear and to be able to see the fainter stars with the naked eye.

Given all the focus on images of the stars in this story, I expect Harry, Voldemort and Eliezer to notice the difference between "the stars and wash of the Milky Way visible in all their majesty within the darkness" and the dimmer stars being missing because it is not dark enough. What does this indicate?

Are they not in Scotland? Are they not in June? Is that the real sky? Are they playing out some astronomy fan's wish fulfillment in the mirror? (Harry is already very confused that Hermione was resurrected.)

Harry's interest in astronomy enables him to notice that it shouldn't be this dark - it won't have been for some days or weeks now. Can he test any of the above without getting in too much more trouble?

This may also be a genuine mistake, my reading too much into things, a spell Voldemort cast for the ambience, or something else, but I thought it worth considering. Any thoughts?

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 02 March 2015 09:12:48PM 7 points [-]

I don't care if it's a mistake or a clue. Writing a book of this sort, and then dropping this test on us, makes him 100% fair game for treating all mistakes as clues, poking at them, and generally getting any advantage we can out of their existence.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 March 2015 02:34:17PM 3 points [-]

This may also be a genuine mistake, my reading too much into things, a spell Voldemort cast for the ambience, or something else, but I thought it worth considering. Any thoughts?

I suspect this is artistic license.

Comment author: Apprentice 02 March 2015 07:17:57PM 6 points [-]

I doubt Eliezer - champion of truth and science - would permit himself artistic license with this sort of thing. I think it is more likely that this is a genuine mistake on his part.

Comment author: toner 02 March 2015 10:45:17AM *  5 points [-]

It's also one night before full moon (which is at 4:50am on June 15), which should make the sky quite bright.

On a related note, consider what the moon looks like one night before it's full. Would you describe this as "over three-quarters full"? While that's technically correct, I wouldn't. I'd maybe describe a June 11-12 moon as "over three-quarters full" but I'd say a June 13-14 moon is "almost full". So we should up the probability that we're in a story/simulation/mirror.

Comment author: wobster109 02 March 2015 08:09:48AM 8 points [-]

Can we each propose a non-transfiguration solution? Even if it's just a rough idea. I feel like we're getting stuck on transfiguration, and a bunch of those require very precise handling of things 10 feet away (such as death eaters) or significantly big things (Harry's body parts). Hermione struggled to get the stunning hex right on the first try, and I feel Eliezer will categorize "transfigure this very precise, remote thing" as a "new magical power".

Comment author: lerjj 02 March 2015 06:02:21PM *  5 points [-]

Stratagem (1) State something that is true, but that LV won't believe. Either LV thinks you've broken the Parseltongue curse, or you gain time in the confusion. Him thinking that you've broken the curse gives you a power he knows not that you can bargain/threaten with. Sub-suggestions: "Sometimes we make our own phoenix tears" (when asked why he told his friends to refrain back near the start) ; "The solar system will die in 10 billion years and you will be forever alone" ; "Hey, you know how you forged a time-turned letter? Well, it didn't actually include my code-word for time-turned messages... I wonder if the great Lord Voldemort can predict what will happen now?" (not a lie).

And someone else made the suggestion of making statements that have a true consequent so that you can make up the antecedent along the lines of "If you destroy me now, the sun will die, and the starts blink out one by one. I know not when, but it shall cause you great grief and misery teacher. If you allow me to live, shall keep them alive for as long as I can, remember my vow"

Comment author: wobster109 02 March 2015 07:16:55AM *  2 points [-]

Ssome livess I have already promissed you, but otherss I did not. . . For each unknown power you tell me how to masster, or other ssecret you tell me that I desire to know, you may name one more of thosse to insstead be protected and honored under my reign. Thiss alsso I promisse and intend to keep.

Is Harry permitted to name himself as a person to be protected? It doesn't seem to say that he cannot. I believe partial transfiguration would buy him a life. It's an unsatisfying solution, as it only saves Harry. But then again, the exam only requires Harry to survive.

Comment author: DanArmak 02 March 2015 08:52:24AM 2 points [-]

He's not permitted. LV said "name one or more of those", where those refers to the people he named in the previous sentence, i.e. Harry's parents and his "mudblood friends" in the armies.

Comment author: wobster109 02 March 2015 03:45:12PM 1 point [-]

Surely other lives are permitted though, such as Neville. Voldemort said specifically: "Your mudblood servants in your little army. Your precious parents." That would exclude Neville (who isn't muggle-born) and Cedric (who isn't in Harry's army).

Comment author: shminux 02 March 2015 05:49:21AM 5 points [-]

Eliezer gave a hint of the solution in chapter 5:

"You triumphed over the Dark Lord by being more awful than he was, and survived the Killing Curse by being more terrible than Death."

Comment author: gjm 02 March 2015 08:54:39AM 2 points [-]

Right now it seems more like a hint of the problem.

Comment author: DanArmak 02 March 2015 08:53:14AM 2 points [-]

Death is the Destroyer of Worlds, but Harry is the Destroyer of Stars!

Comment author: bramflakes 02 March 2015 03:49:05AM *  4 points [-]

I remembered I have a PredictionBook account that I registered some years ago and forgot about, so I might as well get started with this whole "calibration" business.

The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction): 95%

The true solution involves time travel: 50%

The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration: 80% (this isn't in contradiction with #1 - it can involve Partial Transfiguration (e.g. as a threat, or a demonstration, or distraction), it just won't be the lynchpin of the entire plan)

Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story: 75%

Comment author: Ander 02 March 2015 02:57:09AM *  2 points [-]

Voldemort has promised in Parseltongue:

"For each unknown power you tell me how to masster, or other ssecret you tell me that I desire to know, you may name one more of thosse to insstead be protected and honored under my reign."

1) If Harry was able to give Voldemort an infinite number of powers, through the use of recursion or some mathematical trick or something - some way that Magic Itself will consider to be a large/infinite number of separate but related powers, and

2) If Harry was able to enunciate in some way an infinite number of beings which would Voldemort would then be required to spare, which would include all of the inhabitants of the earth (even future ones?).

Then Voldemort will be tricked into having promised to spare every human.

3) If there is some Magical reason why Voldemort would be constrained to keep his promise, (even though he feels he had been tricked), then Voldemort might be rendered unable to harm anyone.

I dont know if this is at all useful, but it was an idea I had which I haven't seen posted by anyone yet. (Thought I havent looked around at everything).

Comment author: kilobug 02 March 2015 08:52:57AM 1 point [-]

Parseltongue isn't Unbreakable Vow, it doesn't prevent people from changing their mind. Any attempt from Harry to abuse the promise like that will probably make Voldemort reconsider and no longer allow to name new persons for the same "class" of powers (like, early in the year, he said things like "no more body parts" when Harry was enumerating lots of body parts he could use to kill someone).

Comment author: DanArmak 02 March 2015 08:54:46AM 1 point [-]

Statements in Parseltongue aren't binding vows, they're just honest statements of intention.

Comment author: jkaufman 02 March 2015 02:34:34AM *  3 points [-]

Harry can do a lot of things, but V already knows many of them. His strongest options are things he's sure V has no idea he can do, like the swerving hex he used on Moody.

EDIT: His strongest options for ways to outwit LV, not things to tell LV to save friends.

Comment author: DanArmak 02 March 2015 08:55:34AM 1 point [-]

Considering QQ's disdain for dueling, I doubt LV would be interested in the Swerving Hex.

Comment author: Sheaman3773 02 March 2015 04:41:53PM 2 points [-]

Which is amusing, and also means that it's the last thing he should tell LV.

It is clearly a spell that is practically guaranteed to work against LV, since it could appear to miss only to swing back and hit either him or his shields.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if it was essential to passing the test, given how perfectly it would work in this situation of magical resonance.

Comment author: gilch 02 March 2015 01:38:08AM *  1 point [-]

There are all sorts of ways to fight using partial transfiguration. Many of the obvious ones mentioned so far are too slow (tunneling through the ground, nerve gas), suicidal (micro black holes, antimatter, unununium, critical mass of enriched uranium, nitroglycerin, etc.) or too complicated.

only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two.

On the other hand, Dumbledore took the shotgun approach to plotting. Let's take the best of both worlds.

Then the obvious answer is chain lightning! Transfigure the air into ions in a path connecting the Death Eater's necks, including LV. This will likely go unnoticed since air is invisible. It might take a few seconds, but Harry can stall in Parseltongue. Then transfigure a cross section of the middle Death Eater's spinal cord into pure electrons. You should be able to generate considerable voltage with minimal mass/volume/time. Repeat for the other Death Eaters. This gives us the possible instantaneous effects of:

  • Blinding flash/deafening thunder
  • Concussive shock
  • Electrocution
  • Combustion
  • Death

To all present Death Eaters simultaneously, while not killing Harry outright, plus

  • Paralysis
  • Death

To the targeted middle Death Eater. Suffering even one of these effects will disable the other Death Eaters long enough to repeat the procedure. The initial strike will reinforce the ion channels, Harry won't have to rebuild them.

Of course I'm assuming partial transfiguration doesn't require Harry to actually aim his wand at the target, but is limited in size. I'm also assuming he can transfigure air, which is not clear from the story so far, as others have mentioned. But really, air is just atoms like everything else. A partial transfiguration should work. Aim should not be required. Contact should not be required. Just partially transfigure a ray of air into air in the intended direction, and terminating with the intended effect.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 01 March 2015 11:57:40PM *  10 points [-]

I expect that the collective effect of 'everyone with more urgent life issues stays out of the effort' shifts the probabilities very little

Perhaps, but it shifts the ability of some of us to participate much more.

We've been waiting months for the latest round of chapters - giving the "final" a couple of weeks would have been more fun for me.

For the best experience, if you have not already been following Internet conversations about recent chapters, I suggest not doing so, trying to complete this exam on your own, not looking at other reviews, and waiting for Ch. 114 to see how you did.

If we wish to win, and not merely play the role of students getting a grade, we will of course collaborate.

It's strange how the student role seems to last and last and last beyond school. I see people doing it at work all the time. Though it's hard to blame them, in an institutional culture where others see your grade on the quiz as more important than getting things done. It's really odd being somewhere that asking someone who knows is considered cheating on your quiz, instead of being productive.

Comment author: DanArmak 01 March 2015 11:34:13PM *  20 points [-]

I posted a longer form of this as a review / solution. Here's a condensed version:

Partial Transfiguration works through a deep understanding of physics. It allows Harry to to create any physically valid state of the universe, as long as he can hold it in his mind.

What this means is that you don't need to Transfigure a gun in order to fire a bullet. You can just Transfigure a bullet in the state of having been fired.

This is what the ability to Transfigure any physically valid configuration really means. You don't need to make a bulky laser weapon. Just make a laser pulse: an arbitrary amount of high-energy photons, aimed in the right direction. Instead of a shaped explosive charge, make a shaped explosion. Instead of antimatter, make gamma rays. Instead of a black hole, dangerous to everybody near it, make a bunch of gravitons and aim them at your enemy.

So given all that, how should Harry kill his enemies?

Lasers are messy weapons. Even black robes are reflective in some wavelengths. Use too much energy and you'll get a fireball back in your face. Release the energy too quickly and it will create an explosion instead of steadily boiling away your target.

Kinetic energy is safer. Transfigure a set of diamond missiles-in-flight, one aimed at each Death Eaters and one also for Voldemort, who is conveniently floating behind them. Giving them a speed of, oh, 0.005c should do nicely. They should be as large as possible - in order to leave large holes - but, since the difficulty and length of Transfiguration scales with the size of the target form, they will be flat and thin: head-sized and a millimeter thick, lying on the ground in front of Harry until the moment when, Transfiguration completed, they instantaneously acquire the forward velocity (and some angular momentum) that will have them impacting the Death Eaters' masks a few microseconds later. The slight layer of air turned into plasma carried in front of them will serve as a nice bonus.

Transfiguring the ground in front of Harry, if possible, is the best solution. Lacking that, pieces of Harry's legs will serve. Since Transfiguration can change the size and mass of the subject, the resulting wounds need not be deep.

If Transfiguration scales with the diameter of the target form, rather than its volume, we will reluctantly use much smaller bullets. A thousand diamond squares, one centimeter across and a millimeter thick, will form a sheet 31 centimeters on a side: much smaller than a car battery. An average of 26 .40 caliber bullets per head should be sufficient to the task.

Comment author: lerjj 02 March 2015 05:08:22PM 1 point [-]

So... what stops the dark Lord from seeing Harry's wand move, then immediately putting up shields? If Harry doesn't need to move his wand to perform transfiguration then fat enough bullets will work. I don't know what a reasonable wizard reaction time is, but it's safe to assume that 0.05c bullets will be too fast to notice. But if Harry has to move, LV can get up shields in time I think.

The next question is, what are you transfiguring? You don't appear to be able to transfigure the vacuum, and it's been established that air cannot be transfigured.

Comment author: Flipnash 02 March 2015 02:38:12AM *  6 points [-]

Holy shitballs.

Comment author: Gondolinian 01 March 2015 10:48:39PM *  7 points [-]

Another possible solution path:

"There iss already in motion a power which will desstroy world if left unchecked. [entropy] If you kill me, trap me, incapacitate me, or otherwisse hinder me, I will be unable to take necesssary possitive actionss to try to sstop it and ssave world. Am sstill bound by vowss, will not take any action I think will make desstruction worsse or more likely."

Comment author: dxu 02 March 2015 12:24:42AM *  1 point [-]

At which point the obvious next question for Voldemort to ask is, "What iss thiss power you sspeak of?", and then Harry would be pretty hosed. Moreover, if Voldemort discovers that Harry is trying to use tricky wording against him, he'll likely conclude (correctly) that Harry is not at all interested in being cooperative, and then kill him.

The problem as I see is this: Voldemort is smart. Furthermore, he thinks like Harry, meaning that Harry's plans will be especially easy for him to see through. Any sort of successful verbal trickery would by necessity have to be something that Voldemort can't decode easily, which, given the constraints, seems to imply that the solution should involve domain-specific knowledge more than general intelligence, which in turn screams "Muggle knowledge!" to me. One example of this is the material implication trick I suggested (which I know you've already seen; I added the link there for other possible readers). Can anyone think of any other such tricks?

Comment author: Gondolinian 02 March 2015 01:21:46AM *  2 points [-]

At which point the obvious next question for Voldemort to ask is, "What iss thiss power you sspeak of?", and then Harry would be pretty hosed.

Why? Doesn't Voldemort have an interest in not allowing the heat death of the Universe to happen? We could change the framing so it's more of an explanation of entropy and heat death than an apparent trick (As I think some on Reddit have already done.), but I think this has a fair bit of potential at least as a tactic for buying time to partially transfigure something or for gaining access to Hermione if not for outright persuading Voldemort to let Harry out of the box.

Comment author: dxu 02 March 2015 01:54:20AM *  4 points [-]

Doesn't Voldemort have an interest in not allowing the heat death of the Universe to happen?

Heat death is a long ways off, and in the long run, it's extremely unlikely that Harry is unique enough to play a crucial role in stopping it. Heck, Voldemort himself could read up on all the science Harry currently knows, a task that would take him at most eleven years, mostly like less (after all, Harry did it, and at a much younger age, too), and be at least every bit as well-suited as Harry is right now at stopping heat death, and probably much more well-suited seeing as he knows more magic. (Plus, eleven years on a cosmic scale is less than the blink of an eye.) I don't think Voldemort would consider the (very probably minimal) value Harry has to offer in preventing the heat death of the universe enough positive utility to outweigh the fact that a prophecy said he would tear apart the very stars in heaven.

That is not to say, however, that this entire line of thought doesn't work. If Harry has something to offer Voldemort that he would actually value highly enough to consider letting him live, then we're in business. Off the top of my head I'm not thinking of anything, but it's a definite possibility. (Intelligence enhancement, perhaps?) Still, I don't think the "help stop heat death" offer is going to be the winning method.

Comment author: shminux 01 March 2015 08:57:31PM 3 points [-]

Working backwards is a standard strategy for solving puzzles like this. Let's imagine Harry having gotten out of the predicament. How does the situation look? Where is Harry? Where is Voldemort? Where is Hermione?

Comment author: Coscott 01 March 2015 08:42:54PM *  21 points [-]

Here is my tentative submission to FF.net. Please comment.

I decline to help Harry out of the box.

Harry no longer has Harry-values; he has unbreakable-vow-values. He is smart, and he will do whatever he can to "not destroy the world." In the process maximizing the probability of "not destroying the world," he will likely destroy the world.

If you would allow me, I would like to appeal to Voldemort's rationality and cast Avada Kedavra on Harry before he says or does anything.

I do not think I will be able to stop other people from getting Harry out of the box. I expected people to believe me when I tried to explain why we should not let Harry out of the box. They did not. It was frustrating. You have taught me a valuable lesson about what it is like to be an FAI researcher. Thank you.

EDIT: I have posted it.

Comment author: iwfan53 01 March 2015 08:14:38PM *  4 points [-]

I have a way of escaping that uses an item that has been established.

A: In the interest of keeping it simple the thing the most obvious answer for something Harry can do that he in theory could teach Voldermort/keep him talking is partial transfiguration.

B: Once Harry tells Voldermort that he can partially transfigure things, Voldermort will want to know the words/motions. Harry can say that he can teach Voldermort (he can't teach him how to cast a Patronus due to Voldermort's lack of love and he can't teach him how not to fear the death the way Harry does, but Harry CAN teach Voldermort how to see the world made up of component atoms given enough time) but it would be easier to teach while doing/give him a visible example of how it works as he teaches (not a lie, it would be possible to teach without doing, but Parseltongue allows for lies of omission) this can open the door to at the very least get the orders moved from “Kill him if he tries to cast a spell” to “lets see you do it while I stand behind/off to the side/under heavy shields” while Voldermort watches Harry try to partially transfigure something, or at least keep Voldermort listening longer than the first 60 seconds, and how he reacts to the knowledge will determine what options are open to us next.

C: Once Harry brings up the point he can also suggest to Voldermort that he might want to dismiss any of the Death Eaters who he does not want to have present while Harry explains/demonstrates the nature of this power. Because while he can speak only in Parseltongue, he'll still have to be showing it off in front of everyone Voldermort wants present. Voldermort is probably much too smart to actually fall for this, and lead to him dismissing any of the Death Eaters, but spelling it out can buy Harry a few more seconds/Voldermort might decide to dismiss one or two of his followers, there is no downside to doing it.

D: Harry explains in Parseltongue that he show the power of partial transfiguration by changing the glasses he is wearing, which he will take off, and hold in one hand, while he holds the wand in the other.

E: Harry will transfigure half of the glasses into half of a playing card.

F: As soon as the transfiguration is complete and around the same time Lord Voldermort possibly starting to recognizes the king of hearts, Harry will bite down on the card with his teeth, and pull with the hand that held it, ripping it in half.

Yes I know it was said that he was supposed to have a Toe-Ring as a Harry's "Emergency Portkey", but that's helpful the same way that the Chamber on the third floor was helpful at keeping people out. It's meant to look more helpful/threatening than it really is.

Given that Harry is wearing a ring just like that one, with Hermonine's body in it instead, where is Harry's "Emergency Portkey"? Well wouldn't the perfect place to have one, be something he'd never be without, something that he'd always have within hands reach, something he could finger and caress and adjust without drawing too much attention?

Say the glasses on his face...

G: As it has not been previously established within the story what Harry has done with the playing card deck he got from “Santa Claus” it is not impossible or against the rules to suggest that Harry transfigured the king of hearts into a pair of glasses. He is saving himself via efforts that he had taken in advance that do not directly contradict anything we have previously been shown (the equivalent of an extended flashback scene in Leverage which shows far more happen than the initial version of the scene we saw for the first time)

H: Likewise it has never been ruled that a portkey looses its powers if it is transfigured into some other form than the one it had in the first place.

I: It is reasonable to assume that with his life depending upon it, Harry can tear a card apart faster than the time it will take for Voldermort to realize what is happening, give the order to attack, or cast a spell himself (even non-verbally) and have the spell cross the distance between himself and Harry, likewise he can do it fast enough that he can at least avoid being fatally shot by Voldermort.

J: As they have walked several miles they are clearly outside the grounds of Hogwarts, so its wards are not in play. Given that the Death Eaters were able to apparate to the graveyard rather than flying there on broomsticks, it is safe to assume that the graveyard had not previously been warded to prevent people from apparating to or from it before they did.

There is nothing in the story describing Voldermort or any of the others warding it afterwards. The wards that Voldermort mentions are clearly of an anti-time turning verity since he mentions the six hour limit so they'd be anti-time turner, but clearly anti-time turning can't be the same thing as anti-aparating because you can Phoenix into Azkabhan but not time turner inside it, or apparate inside it.

Likewise it is unlikely that the place was set up previously before they arrived to let you have a one way apparation (in but not out, assuming such a thing is possible with apparation we see it requires a magical artifact or a phoenix to get into Azkhaban there may be no such thing as a one way apparation ward), because magic that powerful would end up getting noticed which is what Voldermort doesn't want to happen since he needed the site of his ritual to not stand out.

So we have not had it directly spelled out that apparition and by effect portkeys can't be used to leave the garveyard and we have some fair evidence that it could be possible With that in mind, tearing up the card should cause Harry to be taken “somewhere in London”, and the old saying “Anywhere is better than here” doubtlessly applies at the moment.

K: Not only will he be somewhere else, but unless Voldermort was lying in a situation he would have no reason to lie in, and possesses powers dealing with portkey location determination that haven't shown up anywhere else in the story (nobody in cannon Potter or this Potter is shown to be able to tell where a portkey will take someone just by studying it) it is logical to assume that if Harry tears the card up, then Voldermort can not simply apparate right after Harry, and instead will have to start searching London for him.

L: While Voldermort starts to look for him Harry can cast a Patronus to get help from others, and start using partial transfiguration to make whatever materials he expects to need.

At the very least, by this point he has surely avoided “immediate death”. While meeting the following rules.

Harry must succeed via his own efforts. The cavalry is not coming. Everyone who might want to help Harry thinks he is at a Quidditch game.

This solution requires no “cavalry” the outside help Harry has been given (the king of hearts) is already well established.

Harry may only use capabilities the story has already shown him to have; he cannot develop wordless wandless Legilimency in the next 60 seconds.

Harry's ability to partially transfigure objects is well established already within this story.

Voldemort is evil and cannot be persuaded to be good; the Dark Lord's utility function cannot be changed by talking to him.

This is not an issue as the solution involves Harry escaping from Voldermort, and doing so simply by obeying his orders until the very last moment.

Harry raises his wand or speaks in anything except Parseltongue, the Death Eaters will fire on him immediately.

Harry can partially transfigure his glasses back into half a playing card without raising his wand by taking off his glasses and holding them lower to the ground, it is not unreasonable for him to also say that this skill requires intense concentration in Parseltongue (because it does) which is why he will be slightly hunched over examining the glasses very carefully as he works on them. This will have the effect of getting Harry's teeth closer to the edge of the card so he can bite and tear more quickly.

If the simplest timeline is otherwise one where Harry dies -if Harry cannot reach his Time-Turner without Time-Turned help -then the Time-Turner will not come into play.

Though time travel could without question be useful in the immediate future (for a given definition of “future”) this plan does not require any monkeying about with timelines to work, Harry can have taken this precaution at any point in time since he showed Voldermort the card itself back in chapter 65.

It is impossible to tell lies in Parseltongue.

Everything Harry needs to say in Parseltongue is truthful.

1:Harry knows how to partially transfigure.

2:Harry could teach Voldermort how to do it.

3:Voldermort should send away any Death Eaters he does not wish to see the process being done slowly and carefully before their eyes as opposed to being used quickly in battle.

4: Harry will show off the skill by partially transfiguring his glasses which he will hold in one hand, while he holds his wand in the other.

Given that there is no rule 7: “Harry is not allowed to have taken any precautions we did not see him take on screen/in writing” this by following steps A through L Harry can arrive naked “somewhere in London” naked with half of his glasses and his wand, but alive.

Can anyone see a way to improve this plan/ any obvious flaw?

Comment author: Apprentice 01 March 2015 09:55:23PM 5 points [-]

In chapter 104 we have this: "Harry had refreshed the Transfigurations he was maintaining, both the tiny jewel in the ring on his hand and the other one, in case he was knocked unconscious". The other one was Hermione's body. This suggests that the glasses are not a transfigured item.

Comment author: iwfan53 02 March 2015 11:56:39AM 3 points [-]

Okay the new plan works like this.

Harry will say in Parseltongue that he will transfigure two objects, one to show the basic principles, one to show the more advanced applications of it/what you can do after you master the skill. Either of the objects he will be transfiguring materials into will have any magical properties, they will not allow him to kill Voldermort, and they will not allow him to magically escape the graveyard.

Harry will then transfigure his glasses (using the hold in one hand method I described in the first plan), to change just the color of the lenses to black, without changing the color of the rims, legs or any other part.

He will confirm that this was transfiguration and not some other simple charm to Voldermort and ask if he is interested in learning more about this power.

Then he will need to transfigure a section of the ground into the most powerful and most harmless looking flashbang grenade.

At that point he simply needs to release his transfiguration in the right way (if he can control how something approaches the end point as he transfigures it, just reverse that skill and you can choose how it looks as his transfigured control of it fades away not a new power just a new use for an old one) so as to pull the pin on the grenade.

The change to his glasses will prevent Harry from being blinded though he will still be deafened.

This won't be too much of a problem though because we've already seen him command his pouch with hand signals.

With the Death Eaters unable to see him, and possibly having more difficulty casting spells as well (thanks to being unable to hear themselves talk meaning they may screw up the verbal components to their spells) and Voldermort likewise unable to see him and reduced to firing blindly.... Harry has a decent chance to making it to his pouch, if he has the magic to summon it to him so much the better, if not just run like f*.

Then he needs to tell the pouch to give the king of hearts, and tear it up while holding onto his pouch.

That is how he can escape.

Thoughts/reactions people?

Comment author: iwfan53 01 March 2015 10:23:10PM 2 points [-]

Thank you for pointing that out let me reconsider and revise..

Comment author: BrindIf 01 March 2015 08:10:25PM 7 points [-]

Harry could start by saying "Not sssure if I should ssspeak. Mussst asssk friend firssst." He will won at least fime, at best an ally.

Comment author: Kindly 01 March 2015 08:28:13PM 4 points [-]

"If your dilemma iss true, then there is danger both in your sspeech and in your ssilence. I will rissk the latter, rather than allow you chance at esscape. You have thirty ssecondss."

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 01 March 2015 07:24:27PM 2 points [-]

Can people who have posted their solutions to FFN state as much in their comments so we don't have to wade through the FFN reviews?

Comment author: Diadem 01 March 2015 05:48:18PM 9 points [-]

One bit of information that I haven't seen anyone bring up before, is about the original prophecy (the Harry vs. Voldemort one).

Voldemort claims it is already fulfilled. But in an earlier chapter Snape claims that as the one for whom the original prophecy was meant, he will know when it is fulfilled, and it hasn't yet. So assuming Snape isn't either lying or mistaken (and Dumbledore is also present, bringing down the chance of Snape being mistaken), then that particular prophecy is still in effect.

Snape makes another very important claim in that passage. He claims that the 'Power the dark lord knows not' is not just a power that the Dark Lord doesn't know, but one he can't know. He explicitly rules out Harry's knowledge of muggle science as this power.

As far as I can tell, this pretty much leaves 3 candidates for "Power the dark lord knows not" - Love, as per canon. Unlikely since it hasn't been brought up, and unlike in canon probably doesn't have any special powers. - Partial transfiguration. Not sure thought if this is a power that the dark lord can't learn. Presumable if he studied muggle science enough, he'd be able to learn it - The patronus 2.0 & dementor scaring ability. This is absolutely a power Voldemort will never be able to learn, and thus in my book the best candidate. Assuming of course Snape isn't full of shit.

I don't see any immediate way to translate this bit of information into an action to escape Harry's predicament. But hopefully others can do something with this. It's probably relevant, and nobody seems to be talking about it. Especially since the prophecy implies that 'the power the dark lord knows not' is key to defeating him.

Comment author: TylerJay 02 March 2015 03:16:12AM 2 points [-]

I really like the part about the original prophecy not being fulfilled yet. That's the first thing I've seen that Harry can say to LV that would REALLY make him hesitate and would buy more time. Nice work!

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 March 2015 12:30:59AM *  1 point [-]

I like these.

Even with all his Horcruxes, isn't Voldemort still afraid of Dementors permanently destroying him?

If you can make the argument that Voldemort can't have the power to destroy dementors, then he has a real need for someone who does have that power.

Not sure thought if this is a power that the dark lord can't learn.

The spell does seem to require values that Voldemort just doesn't have, and doesn't want to have - it's the good old power of love that gives the power to destroy Dementors. Voldemort simply not being able to cast Patronus 2 is like Harry not being able to cast AK, and there was a comment by someone about Dumbledore never being able to cast AK.

And to add to Voldemort's problem, don't powerful spells have to pass from one living mind to another, so that Harry can't just write down instructions for someone else?

(As an aside, wouldn't this imply that Harry's existing instructions to Hermione couldn't work? Then how are V's instructions for resurrecting Hermione supposed to work for Harry?)

This seems a compelling argument for keeping Harry around to at least teach someone else.

Comment author: kilobug 02 March 2015 09:04:10AM 1 point [-]

I don't think the Interdict of Merlin applies to instructions given by Harry to Hermione about Patronus 2.0. First, I'm not sure Patronus 2.0 would be considered powerful enough to fall under the Interdict. Then, it's not really instructions to cast the spell that Harry is giving - the formula of the spell itself, "Expecto Patronum" isn't included. And finally, Harry didn't write full instructions, but a puzzle that would help Hermione solve the problem herself, like Harry did.

Comment author: nitrat665 01 March 2015 08:46:18PM *  4 points [-]

Well, as for the dementor manipulation ability as the "power the Dark Lord knows not", it is actually a pretty overpowered one. Considering that in HPMOR universe dementors are described as Death, "wounds in the world" and whatever else, they should make a very effective weapon. Consider that, for example, when Harry asks about what would happen if a dementor got thrown into the sun, people seem to interpret it not as a "would a dementor die?" sort of question, but as a "would the sun get damaged by that?" question. So, in my opinion, such a monster shouldn't be inhibited by such things as mere large distances, material obstacles and other mundane and magical protections. When Harry stood before the Wizengamot in a presence of some pretty powerful wizards, including Dumbledore, McGonnagal and Lucius, he was quite sure that in the absence of Patronuses a single dementor under his control would be sufficient to quickly and selectively wipe out everyone who Harry found distasteful. Note also, that there is no need for Harry to wave his wand or say anything to control dementors.

So, if Harry could get his hands on a dementor and his moral qualms wouldn't get in the way, I am sure that at the very least he could kill every death eater he wants dead (maybe sparing Lucius and Sirius, former as a possible ally, latter for a bit of questioning), and discorporate Voldemort, which would at least give him time to call for backup and warn people while Voldie is busy respawning and looking for some Listerine to wash that truly horrible dementor aftertaste out of his mouth. As for Voldemort's idea that he could run away from his body before it gets kissed - I think Voldie is overestimating himself here. Dementors are controlled by people's (especially Harry's) expectations, so if Harry expects a dementor to insta-kiss Voldemort, then Voldemort should be toast.

There are a few of ways to take this idea further than Harry's immediate survival. First, we don't know yet how a dementor's soul-munching abilities interact with a horcruxed spirit, so it is possible that a Kissed Voldemort would die completely or come back damaged.
Second, even if Voldie can come back from being kissed, Harry could do the following - tell Voldemort (maybe in the course of explaining the dementor-control power) in Parseltongue that the dementors are going to purposefully hunt down his horcruxes (being entropy personified, they might be able to slowly erode them and wouldn't be held back by such mundane inconveniences as said horcruxes being in Earth's mantle or something) and kiss any body that Voldemort enters. This sets the new expectations in Voldemort's mind (even if he finds it laughable) and then Harry unleashes the Death.

Now, the question is: where does Harry get a dementor? I guess Harry might have a sudden realization that being Death, dementors should not be bound by such trivialities as a mere few hundred kilometers, and summon some from Azkaban, but EY might consider that a revelation that bypasses the previously set constraints. Alternatively, Harry might try to gamble by telling Voldie that he knows a counterspell to dismiss Death (which does sound useful to an aspiring immortal), and hope that Voldemort doesn't realize the dementor connection and is actually willing to try an experiment with the sword and rope ritual. (and hope that the ritual actually produces a dementor and not some other variation of Death Incarnate).

Comment author: nitrat665 01 March 2015 09:57:15PM *  5 points [-]

Actually, now that I spent a little time thinking on it, this idea becomes even more interesting. Remember, one of the recurring themes that makes Harry so cool is that he has different conceptual limitations from the rest of the wizards. Now, as far as we know, dementors are controlled by people's expectations. The reason that dementors haven't exterminated all the life on Earth yet could be that while people are afraid of death, death always seems to wait another day and moves slowly and on its own pace. I mean, for a medieval person, the image of death might be connected to a tiger or a warrior on horseback killing you or disease or hunger doing you in over the course of several days or maybe weeks. Barring freak accidents, the fastest death-related image in a medieval person's brain could be an arrow (or a fast-flying but perfectly dodgeable Avada Kedavra bolt for a wizard).

So, the Wizengamot people whom Harry considered unleashing a dementor upon, and the Death Eaters surrounding him now - they are all medievals. Voldemort, at least, has contemplated nuclear missiles, rockets and spaceships, so for him death could imaginably be something that can cover a good portion of Earth's circumference in under half an hour, reenter the atmosphere at many times the speed of sound and blow a whole city to the oblivion. Voldemort, however, haven't internalized as much physics as Harry did, so he is on the level of a mid-20th century science fiction writer - and he doesn't have the power to control dementors.

Harry, however, is a totally different case. Harry can imagine (and, quite possible, given time and money, construct) a laser cannon that shoots a ray of death at the speed of light. Harry can think of supernova blasts covering interstellar distances. Harry can think of ultra-relativistic projectiles carrying enough kinetic energy to completely blow a planet apart. Harry can think in terms of homing missiles and AI-directed weapons that can track and destroy enemies without a need for human guidance. Hell, now that Harry knows that time-travel is possible in this universe, he should be able to realize that this could lead to FTL signaling (which could be used to kill people faster than light), so in his mind, death literally shouldn't have a physically set speed-limit. And with his Partial Transfiguration, Harry already has demonstrated his capablility of using his knowledge to bypass the concepts that hold the rest of the wizards back. And Harry does have the power to control dementors.

So, to summarize the above - Harry is the only person who can truly control dementors, and in his mind, Death has no speed limit. If Harry can figure this out within the remaining 60 seconds - Voldie and Death Eaters simply don't have any chance.

Comment author: Romashka 01 March 2015 05:48:13PM 1 point [-]

Maybe Harry is wearing transfigured 'goggles that make everything you look at green' (which he has seen on his trip to buy school things), and can cast light of just the right intensity and wavelengths to heat Death Eaters up without burning himself?

Comment author: Jost 01 March 2015 09:09:44PM 1 point [-]

Note that the goggles would only save his eyes, not the rest of his body. So while blinding the Death Eaters may be possible, everything else isn’t. Also, the DEs would likely start blindly shooting spells very quickly, so Harry need’s a plan to avoid those, as well.

Comment author: Romashka 01 March 2015 09:27:41PM 1 point [-]

Blinding? Not blinding, just making them green. And if he stands far enough, he shouldn't suffer.

Maybe you are answering the wrong comment? Your reply reminds me of his duel with Moody.

Comment author: Jost 03 March 2015 06:40:21PM 1 point [-]

Maybe you are answering the wrong comment?

Indeed, I answered the comment that I thought you had written, not the comment that you had written. (Just a simple misunderstanding on my part; sorry about the confusion!)

Comment author: bramflakes 01 March 2015 05:46:41PM 10 points [-]

EY has previously stated that HJPEV is only knows some of the content of the Sequences, because if he knew all of it he'd be too powerful to write an interesting story around. EY has also stated that Harry is now allowed to come into his full power as a rationalist, presumably meaning he can deduce anything remaining in the Sequences.

So, what things are in the Sequences that Harry hasn't yet invoked? The answer may lie there.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 March 2015 12:35:28AM 5 points [-]

I'm really hoping it doesn't come down to some MWI.

Comment author: Lu93 01 March 2015 05:16:47PM *  3 points [-]

Edit: TL;DR I made equivalent problem. It is sufficient and necessary. Prove: p(H causes destruction | H is Alive) < p(H causes destruction | H is Dead)

I have exams so I don't have enough time to do the whole process, as it should be done. I wanted to donate my thoughts and hope for someone else to do the job.

If you remember, we are not supposed to give solutions at once, we should talk about problem first. This includes gathering fair knowledge about all the mechanisms mentioned.

I see some people listed available objects, which could be used in open combat. Which is exactly what we should do, given that the problem is how to fight them. The problem is, however, not how to win the fight.

Now, I have to admit i haven't thought about the whole problem (I am not facing 37 Deathe-Eaters, true, but I am facing 3 exams next week), I focused on two things: Harry's mind, and Voldy's mind. I will deduce if Harry will actually try to defend himself.

These are my thoughts:

  • Voldy (V) wants to stop the prophesy. Prophesy says Harry will cause great destruction.
  • Harry (H) cannot change V's utility function.
  • V's utility function has high preference for this world not being destroyed.
  • V tried to maximize this function. (He showed he is quite "rational" up until now)

This is part where I imagined myself being V.

"H will cause great destruction. There is greater probability of him causing destruction, than his death causing destruction. Therefore i have to kill him. I just resurrected Hermione, so, someone can resurrect H. I have to stop that, so i will destroy his remnants."

  • H did the whole Unbreakable Vow thing => he is now practically the only human who has no options when it comes to destroying the world.
  • H's utility function is practically the same as V's utility function now. (Both V and H prefer world over H)

  • "There is a prophesy i will destroy the world. I don't want to cause destruction. Is probability ("i cause destruction" if "I am alive") greater than ("I cause destruction" if "I am dead")? Whatever probability is lower, i will do that. "* (He can't chose anymore, he sacrificed it

    H would not try to live if that would lead to greater probability of mass destruction. He would prefer himself dead over alive. (If he is rational he would do that, because his utility function is such.)

Now, let's see compare pA = p(H causes destruction | H is Alive) and pD = pp(H causes destruction | H is Dead)

Vow ensures that if there is even a minor risk of H's next step creating destruction, he would have to interrogate that risk, and avoid it if there really is such a possibility. With regard to this and H's cleverness, he could cause something destructive much easier while absent than while present. =>
pD>pA

Since I don't see EY killing Harry or being inconsistent, pD is probably indeed greater, whether or not my deduction has flaws.

On this deduction depends whether or not H will actually do something to defend himself. If he will defend himself, he might as well communicate all this to V and he will let him go, because V prefers no destruction over destruction.

Edit: formatting.

Comment author: toner 01 March 2015 03:56:39PM *  6 points [-]

Observation: If the purpose of this exercise is to run an AI box experiment, with EY as gatekeeper and the internet hivemind as the AI, then the ability to speak in parseltongue is problematic: It appears to make the game easier for the AI, thereby preventing the results from being generalized to a standard AI box experiment.

So why did Eliezer include the parseltongue constraint?

Maybe parseltongue is meant to introduce the concept of provability in a way that everyone can understand. To speak in parseltongue in real life, you just speak in logic statements and supply a proof with any statement you make. It seems reasonable (modulo computational complexity and provability concerns) for an AI to be able and/or required to supply proofs in an AI box experiment and parseltongue enables that in version of the game in the story.

I don't understand the constraint to speak only in parseltongue. Is that there to force us to focus on a solution set that is somehow of interest for friendly AI research?

Comment author: hamnox 03 March 2015 05:01:19PM *  1 point [-]

It's there to limit Harry using the death eaters somehow. Seriously, my first thought on this problem was to convince the death eaters that there were two Voldemorts to seed confusion.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 01 March 2015 03:38:11PM 1 point [-]

Assuming there is a viable plan to disable all opposition Harry can just state this fact in parseltongue and buy time with that. The dark side of Harry surely can come up with one along the lines of partial transfiguration threads of say Iridium ("Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver"..."). Enough approaches that seem conceivable have already been posted.

Actually he has to state this before executing it because that reduces the risk of the intervention as required per the vow. On the other hand he cannot protect earth when dead so he actually has to choose fighting over dying.

Thus his first sentence migt be something like:

"I have a meansss to disssable all opposssition and cause your retreat or death. I mussst use it to protect the world if you do not reduce the risk of my death."

Comment author: spriteless 01 March 2015 03:34:41PM 2 points [-]

I have read several reviews on fanfiction.net, and posts here, that say Harry will transfigure a very thin knife out of the tip of his wand and cut off all the Death Eaters' heads, perhaps while distracting Voldemort with words. While that could happen, I think it would be better for Harry to go for their arms. No arm means no mark, and no pointing wands, but is much easier to survive, especially with magic medicine and the Philosopher's Stone <i>right there!</i>. Actually, Harry could transmute enough phosphorus to burn so bright as to blind everyone behind him that he cannot see and aim at, and cut off the arms of everyone else for maximum survivability. Hmm, he'd have to permanant the phosphorus transfiguration anyways, though, since he doesn't want any bits of inhaled smoke to turn into wood inside people's cells. Sheeze this is complicated...

And it makes Wizarding wars as deadly-scorched-earth as Muggle wars. This has been a theme of the story, so it works that way too. If I can't think of any more improvements and I don't see any suggestions here I'll post this on fanfiction.net tomorrow morning.

I don't want Draco to lose his daddy by his best friend...

Comment author: Jost 01 March 2015 09:01:32PM 2 points [-]

he'd have to permanant the phosphorus transfiguration anyways, though, since he doesn't want any bits of inhaled smoke to turn into wood inside people's cells.

This would most likely require the Philosopher’s Stone to be in contact with the transfigured matter for several minutes (see chapter 111), which is impossible:

"Professor," Harry said, "if the worst happens in a case like that, is there any way of maintaining the Transfiguration?"

"No," Professor McGonagall said flatly. "Sustaining a Transfiguration is a constant drain on your magic which scales with the size of the target form. And you would need to recontact the target every few hours, which is, in a case like this, impossible. Disasters like this are unrecoverable! "

(chapter 15; emphasis mine)

Comment author: Kindly 01 March 2015 10:34:16PM 4 points [-]

The correct way to solve the problem is to apply another Transfiguration to turn the victim's body into its healthy form, then use the Philosopher's Stone to make the second Transfiguration permanent.

Is there a reason why this would not work?

Comment author: Alsadius 01 March 2015 02:42:43PM 1 point [-]

1) Cancel the Transfiguration on his father's rock, use it as a physical shield to block Death Eater attacks.

2) Patronus 2.0 to block Voldemort's attacks - we only know for a fact that it blocks Avada Kedavra, but it is an instance of Harry's magic, which seems to interact poorly with any of Voldemort's magic. If he's got sufficient control, put the Patronus coincident with Voldemort's body - at minimum it'll prevent him from doing too much with magic, and with luck it'll actuaolly cause some sort of resonance that disables Voldemort.

Those two together buy him a few seconds, but no more. After that, frankly, I'm not sure - my best guess is that he'll Accio his pouch and pull out some kind of Muggle gadget, but we already know Voldemort can trump that by ripping the items away. (Unless one of them's a hand grenade, and Voldy doesn't notice? Unlikely...). If he can hold the items long enough to Time-Turn, he can summon some help, presumably pre-mirror Dumbledore. That said, I'm not sure how much that will help.

For a rather out-there option, he is Tom Riddle, and has some of Voldemort's memories. Can the Death Eaters be convinced to change teams? Unlikely, but not specifically prohibited.

Comment author: Vaniver 01 March 2015 05:59:58PM 3 points [-]

1) Cancel the Transfiguration on his father's rock, use it as a physical shield to block Death Eater attacks.

It is lying in a pile on the ground. How will he use it as a shield?

Comment author: Alsadius 01 March 2015 07:05:49PM 1 point [-]

Right. I mean, it has to have some sort of effect, and that was my first thought. But then, it's small enough that Dumbledore can lift it, so I'm not sure how effective it can be.

Maybe he can jump behind it?

Comment author: Nick_Roy 01 March 2015 02:03:10PM *  20 points [-]

Harry hisses "You have missinterpreted prophecy, to your great peril, becausse of power I have, but you know not. Yess, you are sstudying sscience, but, honesstly, you are yearss behind me. It may be that thiss power you know not iss ssomething I have at thiss sspecific time, that you will not know for too many yearss hence.

Before I explain, remember my Vow, and know my honesst intention not to desstroy the world, Vow or no. Now, do you know why I would tear apart the very sstarss? Do you know how? Not to desstroy the world, but to ssave it from whatever threatss require more energy to extinguissh than exisstss in thiss entire ssolar ssystem. There are more thingss in heaven and earth, Dark Lord, than are dreamt of in your philossophy.

I would usse sstar lifting to do it ssafely. In a way, I really would end the world to ssave it, ssince once humanss are out of the cradle, sspread through... er, let uss ssay 'heaven' in Parsseltongue, to mean well beyond thiss planet, why not add the masss of the Earth itsself to the sstuff of the sstarss, to yield that much more energy? And sso, if you avert thiss prophecy, there iss sseriouss rissk you doom yoursself! Are you willing to take that chance?

And why were you the one to hear thiss prophecy, Dark Lord? Why are you the one to causse it or avert it? What iss your abssolute advantage? Not in killing. Killing is eassy. Thiss iss your blind sspot cossting you much more in expected value than lasst time if you do not lissten.

You are the one becausse you have come clossesst by far, ass far ass I know, to true immortality, though thiss project iss not yet complete, elsse prophecy would not concern you to degree it obvioussly doess. Usseful sstar lifting will take time; much more than ussual lifesspan.

Ssupposse you heard thiss prophecy becausse you are to sshare thiss advantage with me, and together we will tear apart the very sstarss in 'heaven' to prevent ssomething actually bad! Ssomething we both may know nothing of yet, though I already have guesssess; and you know thiss project iss likely to go fasster with me than without me. Your lack of complete immortality meanss time may not be on your sside.

All I have ssaid iss my honesst besst esstimate. If you do not trusst my viewss, let uss wake girl-child friend, ass sshe alsso knowss more of sscience than you. No offence. And becausse I have told you of sstar lifting, that you clearly knew not of, at thiss time when it matterss mosst - conssider the sserioussnesss of your error if I had tried esscaping - you will protect and honor deputy sschoolmissstresss, with the undersstanding that your reign hass already begun. Now what iss the resst of the prophecy?"

Harry puts it together mainly from clues in the three most recent chapters and Chapter 86.

Edited to add: if you're reading this, Eliezer, please see this comment below for the Appendix.

Comment author: MathMage 02 March 2015 10:57:30PM 1 point [-]

Although it sounds persuasive to us, to Voldemort this would sound like exactly the sort of 'intelligent idiocy' that would only solidify his belief that Harry has to be killed right away.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 01 March 2015 10:46:28PM 6 points [-]

Harry doesn't know the actual prophecy, so I'd start it with,

~~~

"Is prophesy essentially..."

"Powers, not excuses."

"Vow compels to raise this point. More important than powers."

Voldemort paused. "Proceed."

"Is prophesy essentially same as Centaur prophesy? Stars go dark?"

"Essentially."

Comment author: Nick_Roy 01 March 2015 11:46:41PM 3 points [-]

Sure. Along with the centaur evidence, there's: Harry's thought on star lifting in response to this prophecy in Ch. 21, Harry noticing Quirrelmort's interest in the same prophecy in Ch. 86, Quirrelmort's talk of the stars' vulnerability to "sufficiently intelligent idiocy" in Ch. 95, Voldemort's "while the stars yet live" remark in Ch. 111, Voldemort's more explicit talk on the prophecy and his great fear of it in the next chapter, and how the Unbreakable Vow is framed in the most recent chapter. If Harry connects these dots, he'll have a good idea of what the full prophecy says.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 March 2015 12:14:11AM 2 points [-]

As a move that Harry can devise, this requires a description of the thinking that makes it possible. He's not told the full prophecy and doesn't know which prophecy Voldemort is talking about. I didn't realize he could piece it together sufficiently, but in Ch. 21 he hears the beginning of the first prophecy (THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY S...); in Ch. 86 Quirrell discusses it with him, pointing out that Harry or Quirrel are likely ones with the power to enact or prevent the event that the prophecy is concerned with; and in Ch. 101 the centaur implies that there is a prediction that "soon the skies will be empty" with Harry responsible yet somehow "innocent" in an unclear sense.

Comment author: Nick_Roy 03 March 2015 01:33:40AM 1 point [-]

Your point on a description of Harry's thinking is well-taken. I just had my brother submit this as a review, to err on the side of caution:

"With NickRoy's permission, I am submitting his solution, which I agree with, with additional evidence appended, just in case that is necessary; so consider this as superseding NickRoy's submission:

[the relevant text is here in the submission, but I don't need to repeat it in this comment]

Appended:

Harry does not know the full prophecy for certain, but he can guess it, based on: Harry's thought on star lifting in response to this prophecy in Ch. 21, Harry noticing Quirrelmort's interest in the same prophecy in Ch. 86, Quirrelmort's talk of the stars' vulnerability to "sufficiently intelligent idiocy" in Ch. 95, Firenze's comment on the stars and Harry's innocence in Ch. 101, Voldemort's "while the stars yet live" remark in Ch. 111, Voldemort's more explicit talk on the prophecy and his great fear of it in the next chapter, and how the Unbreakable Vow is framed in the most recent chapter. If Harry connects these dots, he'll have a good idea of what the full prophecy says.

As for how Harry connects these dots: he runs with the hypothesis (quickly, as he did in Ch. 104): "I am to destroy the world [I don't have to explain why this idea stands out to him] in some way that is not actually bad", since if he were to destroy the world in a way that really is bad, but this may be preventable, he probably should die immediately instead! My first thought on this line of thinking (since "Harry is allowed to solve this problem the way I would solve it") is: "well, someday Earth ought to be converted into computronium for hedonium purposes, though the Sun is much more massive, and then we have the nearby stars... Oh".

Also, on Voldemort's response: Voldemort would be skeptical, but he would also be interested, because "It is impossible to tell lies in Parseltongue" and because all this persuasion has to do is raise the risk enough that it makes more sense to stop and gather more information before killing Harry, thus it "allows Harry to evade immediate death"."

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 March 2015 05:49:10PM 9 points [-]

Please add this is as a review so Eliezer defintely sees it!

Comment author: Nick_Roy 01 March 2015 06:28:04PM 7 points [-]

Done.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 01 March 2015 02:02:35PM *  1 point [-]

Best answers I've heard or devised so far:

  1. Leonhart's suggestion below. Probably the best rhetorical move Harry could possibly make.

  2. Harry's portkey is transfigured into a tiny chip implanted under his own skin. It would be totally in character for him to do that.

  3. If he has the range, transfigure long, thin tendrils that overlap with Voldemort and the death eaters' spinal cords at the neck level. Thin so that he doesn't have to work with as much mass/volume.

  4. Transfigure the air around him into a carbon nanotube shell, buying himself time for another spell.

Comment author: Leonhart 01 March 2015 12:52:28PM 31 points [-]

Here is my best attempt at a delaying tactic, after sleeping on it. Please tear apart/suggest better ways in which LV might tear apart, to replace the poor placeholder responses he has here.

--

"Agree that I musst die, if it ssavess world. But thiss iss not besst way to kill me. Ssee how you can benefit more, given your goalss."

"Explain."

"Believe power you know not doess refer to power to desstroy life-eaterss. Life-eaterss will find you eventually, teacher. Know you. Will hunt you down, ssomeday. Eat all of you, all of world and magic, in the end."

"Sso you will give that magic to me, now."

"You can never reach needed sstate of mind - incompatible with deadly indifference. Sschoolmasster could never casst - incompatible with acceptance of death. Majority cannot casst, and in the tessting, sstandard defence againsst life-eaterss iss ssacrificed. Will weaken your alliess greatly, should I randomly try to teach."

"What do you proposse, then?"

"Take me to life-eater prisson. Allow me to pour out my life and magic there, eradicate them wholly. How I wisshed to do sso, during the resscue! You called me back, then."

"..."

"Many advantagess to you in thiss. Can decimate your final enemy, wipe out their greatesst colony, certainly buy you yearss. Removess them before Wizengamot'ss death throess can releasse them againsst you. Freess your remaining alliess, ass thosse here failed to do. And I am utterly desstroyed - can leave no ghosst behind me. Nothing to fuel ssecret devices of Sschoolmasster's. Presumably, reduced rissk that your great creation will recognisse my spirit - for I doubt you have tessted that."

"You will not desstroy all of them, and sso I will have to find another ssolution anyway."

"Ssolution iss girl-child. Sshe iss closse to learning sspell, and now immortal. My death could drive her to hunt life-eaterss forever; thiss iss not beyond your sskillss at manipulation. You know sshe wantss to be a hero."

Comment author: Jack_LaSota 01 March 2015 10:19:27PM 4 points [-]

If a Confundus can fool the Mirror, it can fool the true Patronus charm. If Hermione can eventually kill any Dementors, she can eventually kill all of them. Finding more people who can cast the true Patronus, and letting them handle an eventual end of the world scenario is a much smaller problem than a prophecy of doom.

Comment author: fractalman 03 March 2015 03:06:59AM 1 point [-]

Something of the real voldemort was leaking through-and the part that was leaking through was, essentially, his gibbering fear of death.

Which really, really won't help in trying to cast a True Patronus.

Comment author: Jack_LaSota 03 March 2015 01:50:22PM 1 point [-]

Casting a true Patronus is not about the absence of fear of death. It's about "The will to defeat death, not just for yourself but for everyone, through your own strength".

The Mirror's desire detection is unfoolable. Which means that the Confundus made Voldemort-Dumbledore actually want to see Dumbledore's family in the afterlife. Voldemort's thought-patterns leaked through, which started unraveling things the Confundus made him believe/want, but before that he did actually believe/want them.

If the Confundus can make someone really want that, it can make them really want to defeat death not just for themself but for everyone through their own strength.

Comment author: LEmma 02 March 2015 08:14:40PM 1 point [-]

Considering Harry might destroy the world, and this might be the very way he does it, why not let Hermione take care of them?

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 March 2015 05:30:23PM *  7 points [-]

Really like that one. My first reaction was "and yet the Gatekeeper can still say no and kill you". After all, Voldemort's trying to prevent untold destruction, a prophecy whose exact paths to possible fulfilment are a mystery. Killing a limited number of Dementors is less important.

But my understanding of the AI box experiment is that it was never just about finding an argument that will look persuasive to someone armchair-thinking about it. It's about finding an opening to the psyche, an emotional vulnerability specific to your current target. Voldemort doesn't seem to have a lot of those, but we do have this:

Harry asked his dark side what it thought of death.

And Harry's Patronus wavered, dimmed, almost went out upon the instant, for that desperate, sobbing, screaming terror, an unutterable fear that would do anything not to die, throw everything aside not to die, that couldn't think straight or feel straight in the presence of that absolute horror, that couldn't look into the abyss of nonexistence any more than it could have stared straight into the Sun, a blind terrified thing that only wanted to find a dark corner and hide and not have to think about it any more -

So yeah, that might work.

My second objection was that if Dementors are considered national weapons in case of war, destroying Azkaban would weaken the country Voldemort intends to rule. Obvious solution, if Voldemort brings this up: kill some other countries' Dementors.

Perhaps one thing I'd change is not tell about Hermione being the solution until Voldemort agrees to do this and to revoke his threat to Harry's parents and friends, only promise to say what the solution is once they're about to attack Dementors.

EDIT: Bonus points if Harry manages to say something Quirrellike-cynical about how he had asked Dumbledore to come with him to kill Dementors, and he said no, and it took Voldemort to say yes.

Comment author: Alsadius 01 March 2015 07:01:43PM 4 points [-]

That's not a win, but I think it's the best loss possible.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 March 2015 05:50:12PM 5 points [-]

Please post this one as a review.

Comment author: Leonhart 01 March 2015 08:20:13PM *  3 points [-]

I just tried to (using the form at the bottom of the hpmor.com chapter) and it appeared to accept it, but I can't see it showing up on the FF.net reviews page. Is this the wrong way to do it? Is there a significant lag time?

EDIT: Never mind, there it is!

Comment author: chaosmage 01 March 2015 12:43:28PM *  4 points [-]

Let's discuss that mirror in a bit more detail. A fantastically powerful artifact that's trying to avoid the destruction of the world shouldn't be outside discussion when you (or Voldemort) are trying to avoid the destruction of the world.

First let's get away from suggestions like "Harry should convince Voldemort they're in the mirror". If Harry believed that were true, he wouldn't want to make Voldemort aware of it because Voldemort being trapped inside the mirror is good. If Harry believed they were not in the mirror, he couldn't claim he believed they were.

But still, that mirror is mightily suspicious. At the very least, Harry might point out that this artifact could be an ally for Voldemort in reference to the particular goal of avoiding destruction of the world. The mirror seems to be at least a source of information, and Voldemort knows he lacks information about how to avoid the prophecy. Voldemort should at least make sure Harry won't cause the apocalypse by dying. The mirror needs to reflect Harry to divulge information about him, so Harry shouldn't be destroyed immediately because then the information would be lost. Instead, Harry should be brought before the mirror. (This buys another couple of minutes - so shouldn't it count as a solution?)

The obvious best way to convince Voldemort there's something about the mirror that Harry understands and he doesn't would be to supply a translation of the "Words of False Comprehension". And that certainly feels doable, there are a bunch of clues and the search space can't be that big. edit: Good discussion of this.

Beyond that, there's a blinding amount of possibilities involving that mirror. I don't see how Voldemort can be sure he isn't inside that mirror, given that he knows that he doesn't know how the mirror works exactly. Harry could suggest tests: For example, since the mirror has "all its consequences severed from Time" maybe time-turners shouldn't work inside it. (This has the advantage that testing it should take another hour.)

Comment author: DavidAgain 01 March 2015 11:37:25AM 8 points [-]

Haven't seen this solution elsewhere: I think it's actually strong on its own terms, but doubt it's what Eliezer wants (I'm 90% sure it's about AI boxing, exploiting the reliability granted by Unbreakable Vows and parsetongue)

However, this being said, I think Harry could avoid imminent death by pointing out that if a prophecy says he'll destroy the world, then he presumably can't do that dead. Given that we have strong reasons to think prophecies can't be avoided, this doesn't mean killing him is safe, but the opposite - what Voldemort should do is make him immortal. Then the point at which he destroys the world can be delayed indefinitely. Most likely to a point when Voldemort gets bored and wants to die, after the heat death of the universe.

This isn't a great solution for Harry, because the best way to keep him alive would be paralysed/imprisoned in some fairly extreme way. But it should hit the criteria. The one really big point against it is that all this info is very available to Voldemort, so not sure why he hasn't come up with it himself.

Comment author: Florian_Dietz 01 March 2015 11:32:50AM *  3 points [-]

This solution does not prevent Harry's immediate death, but seems much better than that to me anyway. I haven't been following conversations before, so I can only hope that this is at least somewhat original.

Assumptions:

-Lord Voldemort desires true immortality. Alternatively, there is a non-zero chance that he will come to desire true immortality after a long time of being alive. While he is a sociopath and enjoys killing, achieving immortality is more important to him.

-Lord Voldemort does not dismiss things like the Simulation Hypothesis out of hand. Since he is otherwise shown to be very smart and to second-guess accepted norms, this seems like a safe assumption.

Solution:

-All of the following has non-zero probability. Since it talks about immortality, an absolute, this is sufficient and a high probability is not needed, just a non-zero one.

-The existence of magic implies the existence of a sapient higher power. Not God, but simply a higher power of some kind, the being who created magic.

-Given that Voldemort wants to live forever, it is quite possible that he will encounter this higher power at some point in the future.

-The higher power will be superior to Voldemort in every way since he is the being who created magic, so once he encounters it, he will be at its mercy.

-Since he desires immortality, it would be in his interests to make the higher power like him.

-Further assumption: If there is one higher power, it is likely that there is a nigh-infinite recursion of successively more powerful beings above that. Proof by induction: it is likely that Voldemort will at some point of his infinite life decide to create a pocket universe of his own, possibly just out of boredom. If the probability of this happening is x, then the number of levels of more powerful beings above Voldemort can be estimated with an exponential distribution with lambda=1/x. Actually the number may be much higher due to the possibility of someone creating not one but several simulations, so this is pretty much a lower bound.

-In such a (nigh) infinite regression of Powers, there is a game theoretical strategy that is the optimal strategy for any one of these powers to use when dealing with its creations and/or superiors, given that none of them can be certain that they are the topmost part of the chain.

-How exactly such a rule could be defined is too complicated to figure out in detail, but it seems pretty clear to me that it would be based on reciprocity on some level: behave towards your inferiors in the same way that you would want your own superiors to behave towards each other. This may mean a policy of non-interference, or of active support. It might operate on intentions or actions, or on more abstract policies, but it almost certainly would be based on tit-for-tat in some way.

-Once Voldemort reaches the level of power necessary for the Higher Power to regard him as part of the chain of higher powers, he will be judged by these same standards.

-Voldemort currently kills and tortures people weaker than him. The higher power would presumably not want to be tortured or killed by its own superior, so it would behoove it not to let Voldemort do so either.

-Therefore, following a principle of reciprocation of some sort would greatly reduce the probability of being annihilated by the Higher Power.

-Following such a principle would not preclude conquering the world, as long as doing so genuinely would result in a net benefit to the entities in the reference class of lifeforms that are one step below Voldemort on the hierarchy (i.e. the rest of humanity). However, it would require him to be nicer to people, if he wants the Higher Power to also be nice to him, for some appropriate definition of 'nice'.

-None of this argues against killing Harry right now. This is OK for the following reason: Harry also desires immortality. If Voldemort resurrects Harry, who is one level lower on the hierarchy than Voldemort, at some point in the future, this would set a precedent that might slightly increase the probability that the Higher Power helps prolong the life of Voldemort in turn, at some point further in the future, due to the principle of reciprocity.

-It is likely that Voldemort will gain the ability to revive Harry in the future, regardless of what he does to him now, as he gains a greater understanding of magic with time.

-One possible way to fulfill the prophecy is to resurrect Harry at a much later time and have him destroy the world, once nobody actually lives on earth anymore. This would of course require tricking Harry into doing this, due to the Unbreakable Vow he just made, but that should pose only a small problem. This would be a harmless way to fulfill the prophecy, and while Voldemort has tried and failed before to make a prophecy work for him instead of against him, that is just one data point and this plan requires the same actions from Voldemort for now as the plan to tear the prophecy apart, anyway.

-Therefore, Killing Harry now in the way Voldemort suggested (after casting a spell on him to turn off pain, obviously), combined with a pre-commitment to revive him at a later date if and when Voldemort has a better understanding of how prophecies work, both minimizes the chance of the prophecy happening in a harmful way and increases Voldemort's own chance of immortality.

Outcome:

-Harry dies. His death is painless due to narcotic spells. Voldemort has no reason to deny this due to the principle of reciprocity.

-Voldemort conquers the world

-Voldemort becomes a wise and benevolent ruler (even though he is still a sociopath and actually doesn't really care about anyone besides himself)

-Voldemort figures out how to subvert prophecies and revives Harry. Everyone lives happily ever after.

-Alternatively, Voldemort figures out that prophecies can't be subverted and leaves Harry dead. It's better that way, since Harry would probably rather be dead than cause the apocalypse, anyway.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 01 March 2015 10:34:51AM 3 points [-]

I have just realised that the 'partial transfigureation to create a steel monofilament' idea probably doesn't work. The problem is that in general, it doesn't actually require partial transfigureation - one could simply transform an object into a steel spike which pushes (rather than transfigures) its way through the soil, going under the shields and then up into your enemies' brain. If this worked, someone would have figured it out by now, because this requires no special knowledge. Therefore, there is some defensive shield which would prevent this attack, and presumably the Death Eaters have shields raised, unless they want to run the risk of a sudden attack wiping them all out at once.

Comment author: solipsist 01 March 2015 05:59:45PM 2 points [-]

I agree. Wizards would have caps on the ends of their wands for this sort of weapon if this were the case.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 01 March 2015 01:58:36PM 2 points [-]

No one has been able to transfigure a piece of the air or ground before, as far as anyone knows, so the shields might not be designed to block that.

Transfigured tendrils that intersect all the bad guys' spinal cords at the neck level would do the trick. Only question is if Harry has the range to do that.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 01 March 2015 02:06:07PM 3 points [-]

No, I mean transfigure a steel spike that pierces through the ground, without actually being transfigured from the ground.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 01 March 2015 02:33:42PM 0 points [-]

Would would Harry not transfigure it from the ground? Or the air from that matter? What else does he have to work with?

And he'd be transfiguring part of their bodies too.

Wouldn't work on Voldie due to resonance cascade, but he could disable the uzi.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 01 March 2015 02:44:46PM 3 points [-]

I mean that transfigureing a steel spike through the ground is doable without partial transfigureation, so it would have been tried before and would be used as a battle tactic already if it worked.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 01 March 2015 09:22:12PM 0 points [-]

Wouldn't you need partial transfiguration to make the spike out of a piece of earth?

Regardless, that's not what I'm proposing that Harry should do. I'm saying he should use partial transfiguration to make acid or cesium threads through the air that include the death eaters and Voldemort's handgun in the transfigured material. That has never been done before, and its likely there won't be defenses against it.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 01 March 2015 10:38:29PM 3 points [-]

No, I mean you transfigure something else into a spike, and the transfiguration pushes the material through the ground.

I'm saying he should use partial transfiguration to make acid or cesium threads through the air

Sheilds stop projectile weaponry (up to a point) and I'm not sure this is any different.

Comment author: TuviaDulin 02 March 2015 02:56:20PM 2 points [-]

It wouldn't be a projectile. It would be transfiguring part of the enemy INTO acid or some other deadly substance by including a bit of their body inside of Harry's conceptual "object."

Comment author: Epictetus 01 March 2015 10:04:38AM 4 points [-]

Voldemort is going full Bond villain and talking when he should be killing. I figure I'll have to sleep on this problem, but here are some observations:

  • Harry can't speak with the Death Eaters. We haven't been told of a secret Parselmouth among them, so any conversation will be intelligible only to Harry and to Voldemort.

  • Voldemort can periodically ask in Parseltongue whether Harry is doing anything to try to escape, and a refusal to answer would likely result in a swift death.

  • It has been pointed out in canon that a good Legilimens can detect when someone is casting a spell (Harry vs. Snape in Half-Blood Prince). Whether wordless, wandless magic could evade Voldemort in this scenario is questionable.

  • The area is warded, so Apparition, portkeys, and probably phoenix teleportation might not be usable. On the other hand, Harry is Tom Riddle. Death Eaters were able to apparate to the location, suggesting those particular wards could be bypassed. Perhaps Voldemort committed an oversight here. And Harry presumably still has that portkey Dumbledore made for him.

  • Harry has a big rock whose transfiguration is bound to expire in the near future.

  • Harry and Voldemort spent a long time brewing that potion. Haven't worked out a timetable but I figure Harry's got a fair chance of stalling until someone notices him gone.

  • We don't know where Cedric fits in. However, involving him would basically involve us making up explanations given our knowledge of how things turn out. Absent any detail of Harry's plans regarding him, we can't have involve some secret plan between the two.

  • Patronus 2.0 is the big daddy of things Voldemort doesn't know and would take a long time to understand. Partial transfiguration is another useful power Voldemort knows not. Using them could be an issue on account of the tactical situation, but Harry can certainly talk about them and possibly sell them as something Voldemort would want to take the time to learn.

At present, I figure that the best approach that doesn't involve deux ex machina (admittedly a power of canon-Harry) or details unknown to the reader would involve talking to Voldemort and trying to either buy time or pique his interest enough to delay killing Harry until a later day. Using any kind of force to resist would be extremely risky and likely futile.

Comment author: Vaniver 01 March 2015 06:03:08PM 1 point [-]

Voldemort is going full Bond villain and talking when he should be killing.

Harry has some power that Voldemort knows that, that very possibly could die with Harry. It seems like the right play for Voldemort to let him talk for a bit.

Harry and Voldemort spent a long time brewing that potion. Haven't worked out a timetable but I figure Harry's got a fair chance of stalling until someone notices him gone.

It was about an hour. Somewhere between three and four hours remain until someone Harry leaves, and it may be further until someone notices that he is gone.

Comment author: Epictetus 01 March 2015 07:22:42PM *  6 points [-]

Somewhere between three and four hours remain until someone Harry leaves, and it may be further until someone notices that he is gone.

It's June 13, 1992. The moon had already risen by the time they got to the graveyard ("The moon above was over three-quarters full, already seeming bright with night not fully fallen." Ch. 111). Hogwarts is located in Scotland, and the moon tables for that date show that in Glasgow, the moon rose at 8:48 pm, local time. It's not quite dark yet. The resurrection of Hermione and Voldemort recovering his body take some time.

By the time the Death Eaters arrive, it's night ("The gibbous moon riding higher in the cloudless sky, the stars and wash of the Milky Way visible in all their majesty within the darkness" Ch. 113). At that date the sun set at 10:03 pm in Scotland.

Now, at 11:04 Harry checks his watch and shortly thereafter receives the (fake) message. Harry goes back in time 5 hours and is confirmed to be in the past at 6:45 (11:45 future time). I don't know how long it took to possibly talk to Cedric and walk all the way back to the castle and make it to the third-floor corridor in time. If he gave himself some 10-15 minutes travel time, he's got at most an hour and a half before his departure from the Quiddich field.

Comment author: DavidLS 01 March 2015 09:53:42AM 1 point [-]

Okay, so I like everyone else's comments, but they feel complicated with what I came up with:

  1. Harry convinces himself of #2 enough to say it in parselmouth.

  2. Harry says "I think I understand the prophecy you're trying to avoid, and I believe killing me makes it happen. I would say more, but you'd probably use it to kill me" in parselmouth.

  3. Harry stays silent.

Comment author: dxu 02 March 2015 01:08:37AM 2 points [-]

You should be more explicit in Step 1.

Comment author: garabik 01 March 2015 09:41:44AM *  4 points [-]

Thinking about AI boxing - note that it is Harry who represents humanity, his core values and goals were not changed that much by the Vow, they were just formalized.

It is LV that has goals that are mostly what we'd agree about (`ensure the continuous existence of the world'), but he has very different values and no moral constraints. In short, dealing with him is like dealing with an Unfriendly AI or an Alien mind (like Sorting Hat).

So this is more like a clash between Unfriendly (or better, Indifferent) and a Friendly AI, where the goals are more or less compatible, but in addition the FAI keeps human values. And the UFAI got there first and is more powerful.

The rational way if your goals are compatible is to cooperate - however, Harry's values almost ensure that he will defect given the chance. And LV knows it, so the rational action for him is to defect (=kill) as well.

Comment author: TobyBartels 03 March 2015 03:06:04AM 1 point [-]

Unfriendly (or better, Indifferent)

Same thing.

‘The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else.’

Comment author: garabik 01 March 2015 09:31:02AM 4 points [-]

I shall take no chances... in not destroying the world...

Oh my... did Voldemort just magically imbued Harry to do his best to put the whole world into time-frozen stasis in the Mirror?

Though revealing this to LV would not do any good - there is a failure safe mode, namely killing Harry, and if LV learns what he did (apart from pointing out his own stupidity), he has all the motivation to kill Harry right now.

Comment author: Kawoomba 01 March 2015 08:57:07AM 4 points [-]

Skimming over (part of) the proposed solutions on FF.net has thoroughly destroyed any sense of kinship with the larger HPMoR readership. Darn, it was such a fuzzily warm illusion. In concordance with Yvain's latest blog post, there may be few if any general shortcuts to raising the sanity waterline.

Comment author: JenniferRM 01 March 2015 08:41:35AM *  7 points [-]

I can think of a solution, but may not be the solution because it relies on untested extensions of previous mechanisms having to do with "Dementers" which HarryPrime knows to be magical incarnations of death, that obey people's expectations about death. Critically, it depends on how much play he has in the distance and plasticity of dementer control.

My plan probably requires him to have put it into motion during the text we already read. Imagine that when he was surrounded at the end of chapter 112 at this moment, he put his plan into motion:

You know, said the last voice within Harry, the voice of hope, I think this is getting pretty bad even by my standards.

Right after that, he could have started expecting 40 dementers to arrive at his location without disturbing or being seen by anyone while traveling, so it doesn't change anything already known about the world before he time turned already.

He expects them to arrive in a group, and to kill everyone but him and Hermione, even if he himself has already been killed (this last clause might not work, depending on how the magic about dementer expectation control works). He expects the dementers to travel at a poetically appropriate speed (to help make the expectations plausible enough to happen), so perhaps the speed of a killing curse, which might be approximated by the speed of sound, or ~750 miles per hour.

If Azkaban is 100 miles away (doubtful) they take 8 minutes. If 200 miles (plausible), then 16 minutes. If 300 miles (also possible) then 24 minutes. I think 250 is most reasonable, so 20 minutes is the maximum likelihood for the arrival time? Unless killing curses move faster than sound, in which case earlier?

Azkaban is somewhere "unplottable" in the north sea so a 20 minute delay is reasonable. For strategic reasons, Harry expects the dementers to rendevous at a point far enough away from where he is that Voldemort and the death eaters can't sense the doom aura of the dementers. Then when 40 are ready in a group somewhere moderately close, he expects them to swoop together in at the speed of killing curses and kill everyone but him and Hermione. One for each death eater, and the spares for Voldemort.

To expect this, and expect that it had a good chance of working was a risk, requiring ~20 minutes to pass between starting the expectation and the dementers arriving, but all through chapter 113 he was not asked by Voldemort if he had betrayed Voldemort yet (this probably would count as that), so the risk has already paid off so far...

That chapter, but the way, took approximately 15 minutes and 30 seconds to occur. I read the verbal parts out loud to myself and timed how long it took.

There were bits like this where I generally assumed that it would be perceived as less than a minute (I counted 30 seconds for this line, rather than 60):

Mr. White screamed through his mask's distortion for what seemed like a full minute.

If my timing of chapter 113 count is accurate, then starting at the beginning of chapter 114 Harry needs to buy about 4 minutes and 30 seconds of conversation, and then he should expect his enemies to be attacked by dementers at an unusually fast speed.

One potential flaw in the plan is that he may not have started expecting the right things early enough. In chapter 113 this bit of narrator description of Harry's mental state shows up around the 11 minute mark and seems uncharacteristic for someone who expects dementers to show up as expected.

Harry was chilled, and shivering, and not only because he was naked in the night. He didn't understand why Voldemort was not just killing him. There seemed to be only a single line leading into the future, and it was Voldemort's chosen line, and Harry did not know what came after this.

So maybe he grew a spine and a brain right after that, in which case he started expecting dementers 4.5 minutes before the end of 113 and needs to buy more like 15.5 minutes in chapter 114.

So what does he do to buy time? Basically, he starts saying a lot of things that are true and interesting and require responses...

For each unknown power you tell me how to masster, or other ssecret you tell me that I desire to know, you may name one more of thosse to insstead be protected and honored under my reign.

Personally, I think Harry is actually HarryPrime now, and he doesn't care nearly as much about his family and friends as Voldemort thinks, at least not compared to preventing the end of the world.

So I think Harry's first move should be to think for as long as he can get away with. Then say out loud that he can think of five things off the top of his head that might be a power-known-not or other qualifying secret. This buys him time to emit more sentences and come up with more things.

(Things he could say that would make the claim of 5 reasonable include: the secret of patronus 2.0, the secret of dementers, flitwick's tourament curse, partial transfiguration, and the fact that magic is a homozygous recessive trait. But he doesn't list them right off the bat that shortly.)

After stating a number, I think he asks clarifying questions about what counts as a secret, or a power, and offers one thing that might count or might not, which would the idea of setting death eaters under other unbreakable vows (to themselves persist in the prevention of the end of the world after Harry is dead) as an example of a strategically helpful thing Voldemort might not have considered as a possible life saving thing to talk about (this also, btw potentially creates allies for HarryPrime's real new goal which is to prevent the world's destruction without stopping to be nice or fulfill other ideals).

Through his wording, he can honestly communicates that his new life goal, by the way, has in fact been transformed by the unbreakable vow that was just taken and he offers himself in service to Voldemort, conditional on Voldemort wanting to protect the world. He really wants to help.

Also it creates a potential conversational opening for him to say that in pursuit of protection of the world he actually cares more now about learn the wording of the prophesy that relates to the potential end of the world, so that he can be more effective in his world saving. Learning the prophesy is probably related to his new vowed goal.

If Voldemort is unhappy with stalling, and Harry has to get down to brass tacks fast, he let's Voldemort know that the secret of Dementers is one that he has composed a riddle for, for someone else (which he has already done for Hermione so it is in theory possible even though we haven't seen the contents of this riddle on camera yet), but it relies on insights and perspectives that Voldemort might not have and so he needs to ask some questions to restructure the riddle. But doing so could take a while and could be done after other secrets were exchanged for lives. Which order does Voldemort prefer?

If Voldemort wants a patronus 2.0 riddle that is optimized for him, then there are a bunch of potentially relevant things about Voldemort's mind and plans that determine whether and how to construct a riddle personalized to him, like "Can you cast patronus 1.0 and if not, why do you think not?"

It is hard to plan a conversation in detail, because the other person's reactions are always relevant, but I could relatively easily see Harry stretching out a conversation about secrets for a good 20-60 minutes, and somewhere in that conversation, hopefully, the dementers swoop in and maybe kill everyone but Harry and Hermione, or at least it gives Harry a distraction during which he might grab the time turner and escape.

I'd rather get the longer happier ending (though I am curious about the shorter sadder ending). Should I submit this plan to fanfiction as a possible solution, or does it need more polishing?

Comment author: Duncan 01 March 2015 02:43:54PM 6 points [-]

You should look at reddit to coordinate your actions with others. One idea I like is to organize the proposal of all reasonable ideas and minimize duplication. Organization thread here: http://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/2xiabn/spoilers_ch_113_planning_thread/

Comment author: JenniferRM 02 March 2015 12:11:44AM 1 point [-]

Thanks for the URL :-)

Comment author: knb 01 March 2015 08:23:15AM 1 point [-]

Maybe Harry needs to solve the nature of magic. Magic acts on human expectations: things happen the way they are expected to happen, within certain rules. Psychological features like intention, emotion, and desire have real effects on the outside world. It seems magic only makes sense in a "human-designed" universe. So the likeliest scenario to HP should be that his universe is a simulation. The limits of Time Turners could be viewed as rules imposed by the simulation-keepers to keep the simulation computable. The Mirror of Erised seems to suggest the same thing. It might be a sub-program baked into the fabric of the simulation to help inhabitants determine their CEV.

There would be an interesting kind of symmetry if Harry's current AI-box problem turns out to be a double-boxing. Will Harry talk himself out of Voldemort's box by warning that they all are in another box?

A problem with this that I see is that Harry's "End of the World" prophecy seems to imply the simulation has a Halting Oracle. I can think of some rationalizations for this, though.

Comment author: slimysimy7 01 March 2015 08:04:56AM 1 point [-]

Partial transfigure air at wand tip into Sarin gas (which I'm sure Harry knows the chemical structure of). Heating it will help it diffuse faster. Hold breath. But not before telling Voldemort something true put possibly useless (like the special power is "love" or something). I'm fairly certain that voldemort would feel the need to respond to this, explaining why it is a stupid answer. You have to inhale to talk. After that, make for the time-turner I guess?