Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 113
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 113.
There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).
If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.
IMPORTANT -- From the end of chapter 113:
This is your final exam.
You have 60 hours.
Your solution must at least allow Harry to evade immediate death,
despite being naked, holding only his wand, facing 36 Death Eaters
plus the fully resurrected Lord Voldemort.If a viable solution is posted before
*12:01AM Pacific Time* (8:01AM UTC) on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015,
the story will continue to Ch. 121.Otherwise you will get a shorter and sadder ending.
Keep in mind the following:
1. Harry must succeed via his own efforts. The cavalry is not coming.
Everyone who might want to help Harry thinks he is at a Quidditch game.2. Harry may only use capabilities the story has already shown him to have;
he cannot develop wordless wandless Legilimency in the next 60 seconds.3. Voldemort is evil and cannot be persuaded to be good;
the Dark Lord's utility function cannot be changed by talking to him.4. If Harry raises his wand or speaks in anything except Parseltongue,
the Death Eaters will fire on him immediately.5. If the simplest timeline is otherwise one where Harry dies -
if Harry cannot reach his Time-Turner without Time-Turned help -
then the Time-Turner will not come into play.6. It is impossible to tell lies in Parseltongue.
Within these constraints,
Harry is allowed to attain his full potential as a rationalist,
now in this moment or never,
regardless of his previous flaws.Of course 'the rational solution',
if you are using the word 'rational' correctly,
is just a needlessly fancy way of saying 'the best solution'
or 'the solution I like' or 'the solution I think we should use',
and you should usually say one of the latter instead.
(We only need the word 'rational' to talk about ways of thinking,
considered apart from any particular solutions.)And by Vinge's Principle,
if you know exactly what a smart mind would do,
you must be at least that smart yourself.
Asking someone "What would an optimal player think is the best move?"
should produce answers no better than "What do you think is best?"So what I mean in practice,
when I say Harry is allowed to attain his full potential as a rationalist,
is that Harry is allowed to solve this problem
the way YOU would solve it.
If you can tell me exactly how to do something,
Harry is allowed to think of it.But it does not serve as a solution to say, for example,
"Harry should persuade Voldemort to let him out of the box"
if you can't yourself figure out how.The rules on Fanfiction dot Net allow at most one review per chapter.
Please submit *ONLY ONE* review of Ch. 113,
to submit one suggested solution.For the best experience, if you have not already been following
Internet conversations about recent chapters, I suggest not doing so,
trying to complete this exam on your own,
not looking at other reviews,
and waiting for Ch. 114 to see how you did.I wish you all the best of luck, or rather the best of skill.
Ch. 114 will post at 10AM Pacific (6PM UTC) on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015.
ADDED:
If you have pending exams,
then even though the bystander effect is a thing,
I expect that the collective effect of
'everyone with more urgent life issues stays out of the effort'
shifts the probabilities very little
(because diminishing marginal returns on more eyes
and an already-huge population that is participating).So if you can't take the time, then please don't.
Like any author, I enjoy the delicious taste of my readers' suffering,
finer than any chocolate; but I don't want to *hurt* you.Likewise, if you hate hate hate this sort of thing, then don't participate!
Other people ARE enjoying it. Just come back in a few days.
I shouldn't even need to point this out.I remind you again that you have hours to think.
Use the Hold Off On Proposing Solutions, Luke.And really truly, I do mean it,
Harry cannot develop any new magical powers
or transcend previously stated constraints on them
in the next sixty seconds.
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IMPORTANT:
There are more details and suggestions at the end of the chapter.
Question for Eliezer: Would a post to a LessWrong HPMOR discussion thread count as a solution, or must all solutions be posted to fanfiction.net?
Keep in mind the following:
Within these constraints, Harry is allowed to attain his fully potential as a rationalist, now in this moment or never, regardless of his previous flaws.
Of course, ‘the rational solution’, if you are using the word ‘rational’ correctly, is just a needlessly fancy way of ‘the best solution’ of ‘the solution I like’ or ‘the solution I think we should use’, and you usually say one of the latter instead. (We only need the word ‘rational’ to talk about ways of thinking, considered apart from any particular solutions.)
And by Vinge’s Principle, if you know exactly what a smart mind would do, you must be at least that smart yourself.
So what I mean in practice, when I say Harry is allowed to attain his fully potential as a rationalist, is that Harry is allowed to solve this problem any way YOU would solve it. If you can tell me exactly how to do something, Harry is allowed to think of it.
But it does not serve as a solution to say, for example, “Harry should persuade Voldemort to let him out of the box” if you can’t yourself figure out how.
…
I wish you all the best of luck, or rather the best of skill.
Another question for Eliezer: can this solution involve some past preparations not explicitly seen on camera? Like, can we say "Harry has a Weasley-provided pink plastic flamingo in his pouch, which he can use to defeat 37 Death Eaters in the obvious fashion."
I would say no to the Flamingo, but yes to any object ever mentioned in the story (e.g. car engine that he tried to use in the first battle), after all, Harry prepared his pouch for anything and everything that he could fathom.
In pouch, no. Transfigured in his glasses, maybe... but Harry is not allowed to move his hands to touch the glasses.
Unless the glasses already a contain a killing machine operated by eye movements. Then Harry can kill everyone with a blink of an eye. (Undiscriminate killing would also hit Hermione, but she would survive.)
Since they are touching his skin, does he need his wand to cancel the Transfiguration?
in that case he'd have used that in Failure Pt 2 obviously.
March 2nd isn't a Tuesday; is it Monday night or Tuesday night?
It clearly stipulates 12:01 am to avoid just this kind of confusion.
Further, the chapter will be posted at 10:00 am on Tuesday.
So the deadline is Monday night.
The tradition in timetables is to list 11:59 pm for endings (such as we have here) and 12:01 am for beginnings. Eliezer should have followed the tradition; the evidence for my claim is that janos was confused when EY violated the tradition. (Edit: Well, actually, janos was apparently confused by a bona-fide error, not by this.)
The available dates were Monday, March 2nd, or Tuesday, March 3rd; the "12:01 am" did not distinguish which of those dates was meant by "Tuesday, March 2nd" in the slightest, since both possible dates had their own 12:01 am.
This has been subsequently corrected by EY to "Tuesday, March 3rd" (which was the correct day for the 60 hours promised).
A transfigured port key in his glasses does seem possible, or some kind of explosive device hidden in the transfigured ring.
EDIT: Fawkes is also a way out here, if Harry can delay an enemy attack for several seconds
Second edit (the serious one): The ring contains some kind of binding device. This could be the blinding potion Harry used in battles, a set of flash-bang grenades, or (most likely) a seventh-year variant of the blinding potion Harry bought off a student. This countermeasure will blind the unwarded death eaters which allows Harry to immediately fall to the ground and call Fawkes. Fawkes teleports Harry out and allows escape.
I was thinking of a transfigured portkey attached to one of his fingernails. That way even if bound he should still be able to activate it.
BUT The students were issued with portkeys in the form of toe rings and Harry got rid of his explicitly.
I was wondering how much retroactive power we would have.
Harry would know, or be able to look up, any number of chemicals that would react very poorly to the open air. It would be exceedingly foolish to carry one on his person, transfigured, such that he would simply have to negate the tranfiguration to have a distraction or attack, but would such a thing be in our power to suggest into existence, if we thought of a sufficiently non-foolish way for Harry to carry this?
I'm relatively confident that this quote is a part of the solution. Maybe Harry partially transfigures a monofilament blade and starts cutting down everything.
Some pieces that maybe got put together over in the Reddit thread: We've SEEN Harry transfigure carbon nanotubes before.
Carbon nanotubes have poor sheer strength, and would not make a good cutting weapon. Presumably diamons cannot break sheilds, as someone would have tried that by now. Plus, carbon nanotubes are black, not silver.
Indeed, the only obvious “power” Harry has that is (as far as we know) unique to him is Partial Transfiguration. I’m not sure if Voldie “knows it not”; as someone mentioned last chapter, Harry used it to cut trees when he had his angry outburst in the Forbidden Forest, and in Azkhaban as well. In the first case Voldie was nearby, allegedly to watch out for Harry, but far enough that to be undetectable via their bond, so it’s possible he didn’t see what exact technique Harry used. In Azkhaban as well he was allegedly unconscious.
I can’t tell if he could have deduced the technique only by examining the results. (At least for the forest occasion he could have made time to examine the scene carefully, and I imagine that given the circumstances he’d have been very interested to look into anything unusual Harry seemed to be able to do.)
On the plus side, Harry performed PT by essentially knowing that objects don’t exist; so it could well be possible to transfigure a thin slice of thread of air into something strong enough to cut. For that matter, that “illusion of objects” thing should allow a sort of “reverse-Partial” transfiguration, i.e. transfigure (parts of) many objects into a single thing. Sort of like what he did to the troll’s head, but applied simultaneously to a slice of air, wands, and Death Eaters. Dumbledore explicitly considers it as a candidate against Voldemort (hint, Minerva remembers Dumbledore using transfiguration in combat). And, interestingly, it’s a wordless* spell (I’m not even sure if Harry can cast anything else wordlessly), and Harry wouldn’t need to raise his wand, or even move at all, to cast it on air (or on the time-space continuum, or world wave-function, whatever).
On the minus side, I’m not sure if he could do it fast enough to kill the Death Eaters before he’s stopped. He did get lots of transfiguration training, and using it in anger in the forest suggests he can do it pretty fast, but he is watched, and IIRC transfiguration is not instantaneous. He probably can’t cast it on Voldie nor on his wand, though he might be able to destroy the gun. And Voldemort can certainly find lots of ways to kill him without magic or touching him directly; hell, he probably knows kung fu and such. And even if Harry managed to kill this body, he’d have to find a way to get rid of the Horcruxes. (I still don’t understand exactly what the deal is with those. Would breaking the Resurrection Stone help?)
It has been established that air can't be Transfigured due to the constant motion of its particles; they don't hold still long enough for you to Transfigure them.
Is there an easy-to-link-to source for this? Not that I don't believe you, I just want to make sure there aren't any non-obvious or obvious-in-hindsight alternative interpretations.
Ch. 28:
This isn't conclusive, though. That failed attempt is before he sorts out partial transfiguration. However:
It would need to be fairly clear, I think, that Harry was re-purposing an old technique and not doing something new.
The first rule of Transfiguration: you do not guess.
Harry proposed a hypothesis, but no further testing was committed. Without knowledge of PT, I'd rate the inability to transfigure all air (as a conceptually-singular entity) as an equally (or more) probable explanation.
Combine this quote, partial transfiguration as the power Voldemort knows not (both true and foreshadowed by Dumbledore's reaction when Harry first revealed it), the previous weaponization of partial transfiguration when Harry transfigured a cross-section of the troll's brain into acid, the shaping exercises as a Chekov's Gun, and another Chekov's gun being Harry's resolution to drop the Batman "no killing" stance if the enemy killed again.
Harry wordlessly transfigures an atomic-thickness line of material from the tip of his wand through his clothes and the ground to all Death Eaters and Voldemort, let's say transfiguring their skins to acid. That would cause blood to spill in litres, a fraction of a line of silver, and probably a scream.
Voldemort forgot a very basic ”trick”: disarming Harry first.
At the end of chapter 112, we wondered about that, too. It turns out that Harry needed to have the wand to perform the vow. With that out of the way … why does Harry still have his wand? Is this just because Eliezer wants to make sure that Harry still has a way out? Or is there some in-universe reason for Voldemort to allow this?
Someone elsewhere suggested that Voldemort wants Harry to kill the Death Eaters, who are obviously too stupid to live if they missed that trick.
Theory: Voldemort has let Harry keep his wand because he intends Harry to do something with it. In story we have plenty of evidence that you can't "mess with time". Think of prophecies as messages from the future instead of predictions and it's obvious. Voldemort knows this first hand(and maybe Harry will figure it out) so instead of trying to foil the prophecy or actively trying to force the prophecy to play out in the most beneficial way he can imagine, like he did with his first encounter with a prophecy, he is trying to make it so that prophecy two cannot play out in any other way except the way he wants it to.
So, the question we should be asking ourselves is this: How would you make these prophecies come true in the best possible way? If you were Voldie? If you were Harry?
Two spirits cannot exist in the same world implies multiple worlds, only destroy one of them? Move one of them to another world? Would you try to set up a future where Harry "tears apart the stars in the heavens" as a fuel source to power an advanced civilization? Could the "end of the world" refer to the purposes of the world? The end for which it was created(Atlanteans?). Either that Harry is that end or that he will accomplish it?
Assuming that it is true that Voldie is trying to control the prophecy and not foil it, what do we know about what he intends, or expects to happen next?
*Some move that the unbreakable vow constrains Harry to do
*Hermione will escape?(His inside joke laughter)
*Require's Harry to have a wand
*He expects Harry to figure it out given available evidence
Anything else?
An important question to ask: What possible fulfillment interpretation of the prophecy(ies)(Does Voldemort really believe the first one already fulfilled or is he trying to accomplish both?) would Harry's actions be constrained towards by the unbreakable oath and the other conditions Voldemort has set up for Harry?
Maybe Harry just accepts that he is destined to destroy the world no matter what and since he doesn't have the power to do it now he MUST survive his present predicament and become much more powerful than he currently is so he resolves to return to this point in time when he achieves ultimate power. So kick butt Harry from the future is about to show up and knock some heads.
Question for EY:
In the chapter, you wrote:
Does this mean that the reader-suggested solution will in fact be used, or will the story simply continue with the solution you originally had in mind?
How many months do you want to wait until Eliezer rewrites the story to match the reader-provided solution?
Fair enough. The phrasing caught me a bit; that's all.
After 5 minutes of thinking about it, the only thing I could come up with concerns:
Bellatrix and Sirius are stars, and also Death Eaters. Voldemort has already torn apart Bellatrix to use the Dark Mark, and Harry can tear apart Sirius with the Partial Transfiguration trick people are talking about. How do we know Sirius is present? Because there is a Death Eater named "Mr Grim" who is stated to have known the Potters.
Hang on, isn't Sirius in Azkaban?
The "he" refers to both Tom Riddles, as they are branches of the same person.
Troubles with this suggestion:
The "HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD" part remains unresolved.
Narratively unsatisfying.
And then, since he's already figured it out when guessing about the Comed-Tea, Harry will make himself believe that the stars are the people, and so the prophecy means not him, but Voldemort, which is why if he does not stop Voldemort right now, he will fail to fulfill the Vow, which is impossible.
So the Vow will work in his favor, possibly boosting his abilitiesto misdirect in Parseltongue.
Also, Voldemort is aalready the end of the world, and has been since possessing the Pioneer Plague (which can be reached by phoenix at any moment).
Also, Voldemort put on broomstick enchantments on his bones, and Harry already knows a way in which they are fallible: CRAP. NEWTON...
He didn't put them on his bones; remeber the part, where resurected Voldemort takes some sticks from Quirrell, attatches them to himself and tests flying? Voldemort would likely enchant his own bones later, but right now he has sticks attached to his limbs.
True, but what matters is if he attached the sticks stickily enough.
"End" can also mean "goal". This is somewhat interesting in light of EY's work at MIRI.
I don't think this is likely, if only because of the unsatisfyingness. However:
Some foreshadowing on the idea of ominous-sounding prophecy terms actually referring to people's names.
"blood spills out in litres" meshes well with "TEAR APART".
I like this, and you can resolve "HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD" by combining the rule that prophecies are meant to be heard by those they affect and to cause their consequences, and that to Voldemort, his death is the end of his world. So HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD is true for Voldemort, because Harry's killing power can be the end of Voldemort's world.
I think the literal physical stars are referred to. The centaur also thought the stars would go out:
Literal stars. Literally torn apart. The sun must be tamed. And more distant stars are also dangerous.
Is Sirius a Death Eater in this fic? In canon, he was thought to be one, but he never was.
About Sirius we only have the story from "Skeptical Wizard" (about Weasleys' rat) and some mentions in the Azkaban - nothing to suggest he was good.
True, but also nothing to suggest any changes from canon, where we were also led to believe him evil until The Reveal. Well, there is the possibility that someone in Azkaban is thought to be Sirius but isn't, which is a sign that Sirius may have imprisoned someone in his place, and that would be an evil act. But even if this is so (which it may not be), it may well be a justifiable act from the perspective of the Order of the Phoenix (for example, if Sirius imprisoned Peter in his place, and otherwise the characters are as in canon).
Edit: Add the potential justification involving Peter (which is not an idea original to me, BTW).
Not a solution, but should the Death Eaters be discounted as not good for much of anything?
I don't just mean that Voldemort has shown them to be fairly incompetent, but that they may be too shaky to use whatever remains of their skills.
As an orthodox Discordian, I would be very pleased if it turned out that one of the Death Eaters has an idea which would be very useful for Voldemort, but is too afraid to say it.
What's the difference between an orthodox Discordian and a heretical one?
Lets see..
Notes: EY didn't say that noone was aware of what was happening, just that anyone who would help Harry think he is at the game. Given the prophecy about Harry, this has disturbing implications.
Anyway: Obstacles: 39 minions in not-defensively enchanted blacks. One dark lord who can't use magic on you, but who can shoot your ass, An absolute prohibition on moves that could escalate to world threatening levels.
Assets: Naked pasty english lad. Wand. Parseltongue.
.. You know, normally in this sort of situation I'd recommend talking. Parseltongue is far and away the most potent tool he has, because he can tell Voldemort true things, and Voldemort will not be able to scoff at him.
But the problem is, the only things Harry could tell him that would make him delay killing him are things Voldemort should not be told, even at the cost of his life.
So combat it is.
Sigh. This is going to hurt.
Cant partially transfigure air, but wands are not indivisible objects, so he still has a small amount of material to work with, at least once.
Partially transfigure the tip of the wand into photons. The kind of flash of light that leaves burns. Everyone is looking at you - And now they are all blind. Possibly also on fire. Do it with the center of the tip so that you are in the shadow cast by the wand - but expect a hospital stay. And a need for a new wand. Primarily, the point is that this will attract attention. Most likely, timeturned attention. So if you do this, there is now a reason for someone to rescue you a faction of a second after the initial flash. .. Which shouldn't actually even be necessary. If I read Voldemort correctly, he will bail if actually hurt. Certainly since he has already extracted the wow...
Could he tell Voldemort aout partial transfiguration and request his own life spared?
Buffing the dark lord further is not an option. There is tonnes of things Harry could infer and then tell him that would make him delay. But this would be trading moments of life for further fucking over the world. Not a good trade.
Is it? Harry only took the vow moments ago--before that point, actions he was taking could have lead to the end of the world, and those action's consequences may still be in motion. The Vow only forces Harry to inaction if he knows he is at risk of causing the end of the world, as well. World ending may still be on the table.
Mostly I brought it up because people keep suggesting anti-matter. Anti matter could be mistaken for a nuclear weapon, which could escalate to WWIII, so the wow means he can't use it anymore. A pure light pulse wont set off those warning systems. Or at least, not at the level I'm thinking of.
Nitpick - antimatter will also produce a pure light pulse, just the wavelengths are much shorter than the visible spectrum.
.. sigh the point is survival. A radiation pulse will hurt Harry the most, and will not be immediately obvious to people not fried by it. The idea is to disable opposition and summon help.
In the event no help instantly materializes, dodge and start the incantation for fiendfire - it doesn't actually matter if you can't cast it. Everyone present will recognize it, and to a blinded wizard, fleeing should be utterly reflexive at that point.
A small antimatter explosion would not be mistaken for a nuclear weapon. In fact, a big antimatter explosion might be mistaken for a nuclear weapon, but since a missle would not have been detected, no-one would no who to retaliate against, and so retaliation would be delayed long enough for people to realise that there is no fallout and so it cannot be nuclear.
Challenge accepted.
I've already got the seed of a solution which I'll be fleshing out and posting formally, later.
(And it took me half an hour after coming up with it, to get here, register, and figure out how to post.)
Note that to save the story you need to post at fan fiction as a review, not just here
Solution submitted. Thus far, this thread does not include mention of what I would consider to be Harry's greatest weapon.
He hasn't just been practicing "partial transfiguration". He's been successfully practicing discarding any notion of time, space, object or causality, in toto.
To clarify: if you do away with time, you also radically change the meaning of space. It's all just wave equations.
I can't bold that big enough.
Is Voldemort familiar with logical syllogisms? If not, it should be possible for Harry to trick him by saying something that seems to imply something else, without actually confirming the second thing as true, a la Chapter 49:
One possible example proposed in a review on fanfiction.net (and the one that set me on this train of thought in the first place) is, "If you kill me, the world will end." Since the world will end no matter what, the consequent is guaranteed true, making the content of the antecedent irrelevant due to contrapositive shenanigans... but Voldemort doesn't know that, and it sounds like the end of the world is dependent on Harry's death.
"All your servantss will die if they fire at me. They will die if you do not command them to sstand down NOW."
I really like "Parseltongue 'if' is material implication", but if this were true I'd expect Voldy to know about it and request clarification, e.g.,
"Explain exactly how they will die, or I will shoot you in five seconds."
"The world will end if I tell you!"
(admittedly non-optimal)
Not necessarily. Parseltongue, if I understand it correctly, forces the speaker to tell the truth as he/she understands it (while bypassing Occlumency). If Harry knows about material implication (which he almost certainly does), he can utilize it in such a manner, but it's unlikely that Voldemort has ever encountered something similar. This isn't your standard clever wordplay that anyone smart can think of, after all--it's formal logic, which is decidedly Muggle.
The Parseltongue statement must be a critical part of the upcoming solution, I think. Simply killing the Death Eaters will not do; they are, as Voldemort puts it, useless. (That is, a solution that disables the Death Eaters but not Voldemort is not a solution.)
The text of the boundary conditions suggests that Harry can't change Voldemort's values, but the lesson suggestion makes clear that he can change Voldemort's beliefs.
I think the first thing for Harry to suggest is that the prophecy is being misinterpreted. The trouble with this is he needs to hear the prophecy to argue it as well as possible, and Voldemort is unlikely to tell it to him.
So, what lessons does Harry have for Voldemort? Partial transfiguration, and implicitly timeless physics. Friendship? Science fiction? Dyson spheres? We, with knowledge of the prophecy, can feed Voldemort the data he needs to come to the right conclusion.
(During these discussions, of course, he can be partially transfiguring whatever he likes. Carbon nanotubes, hollowing out the ground beneath him, and so on.)
Harry can talk to LV about the life cycles of stars and the heat death of the universe. All this could force LV to rethink what it means to be immortal when the sun engulfs the earth or the universe hits maximum entropy. This could buy some time.
I agree that this would be relevant, but Harry doesn't know the literal text of the prophesy yet. Only discussion of "destroying the world" has happened in his presence, not "tear apart the stars".
The fact that "protecting the earth" in the very long run requires protecting the earth from solar flares and supernovas hasn't yet been understood by Voldemort.
Sorta ties into something I thought about much earlier;
-- The easiest way to prevent LV from killing HP would be for HP to convince LV that his intention is misguided. -- His intention is to kill Harry to save the world. (funny, that) -- Killing Harry will not save the world. It is clear that LV is aware of this, based on his reflections on self-fulfilling prophecies. -- LV intends to defy the prophecy at every point of intention, and will therefore try to kill HP anyway, because if the prophecy is coming true anyway he's already screwed and has nothing to lose. -- Convincing LV that killing HP is useless is therefore insufficient. He must be convinced that killing HP will bring about the very thing he wishes to avoid. -- HP's existence must be tied to the continued well-being of the world. -- What does HP have that could save the world? Well, power over dementors. -- What might dementors do that could destroy the world? Jump into the sun, perhaps? -- The realization that that would be an optimal thing for death incarnate to do will cause the thing itself to happen. -- Unfortunately, the vow cannot prevent this, because it allowed for the weighing of risks, which by nature includes contemplation of disastrous possibilities. (if I die, does this end the earth? Is it dementors? if I don't think about this question, and they've done something, that's a certain bad thing, but if I think about it, I might decide there's nothing wrong and that's a not-certain bad thing, so I'll take the lesser risk and think about it.) -- HP is the only one who can stop them from destroying the sun. And if he dies, he cannot prevent them from doing so. -- Not that killing HP would be intelligent in any case, as there's a non-zero chance that his death and subsequent entrance into the horcrux system would kill LV too.
I'm very interested in commentary.
(Edited to remove less interesting solutions)
Harry can tell Voldemort that Harry's death has an unknown chance of hijacking Voldemort's horcrux network, and neither of them have enough information to push that probability below 5%. As far as I can tell, that's simply true. We know that Voldemort hasn't done any tests of the improved horcrux spell until now, and has been mistaken before about its working. The Voldemort described in this chapter would not accept a 5% risk on this particular plan, so he will carry out some experimental tests before killing Harry. That seems to allow Harry to evade immediate death, which is what Eliezer asked for.
Harry's death burst will very likely interact with Voldemort's magic anyway, like the wards Voldemort placed around the spot, or the dark marks on minions' hands. That changes the whole plan. Now Voldemort must get himself and the minions far away at the moment of Harry's death, and also lift the wards. That buys some time as well, and is compatible with the previous idea.
Voldemort has just taught Harry how to un-transfigure stuff wandlessly. If Harry's glasses are some sort of transfigured distraction that could be used to buy a couple seconds, Harry could use it, and immediately fire Flitwick's swerving hex. I'm pretty sure Voldemort doesn't know about that one, can't dodge because the hex was fast enough to drop Moody, and can't shield because that would count as magic touching. (Moreover, even if Voldemort dodges, the hex might still touch his wards around the graveyard, so maybe Harry can just fire in a random direction.) That could be one way to cause a resonance cascade, what happens next is anyone's guess.
ETA: I just posted a more fleshed out solution on /r/hpmor. It's very likely that it can be improved even further.
Antimatter would only temporarily kill Voldemort, but would perminantly kill both Harry and possibly Hermione.
The resonance cascade in Akaziban did not kill Quirrel, it only forced him to throw his want aside and turn into a snake. But still, it might be possible to use that as a distraction, while Harry does something else.
Quantities and locations matter. Atomic-diameter filaments linking nanogram-level concentrations in the brains of Voldemort and the Death Eaters could discorporate them without killing Harry (at least, not killing him before he could reach the Stone of Transfiguration).
Did you post on fanfiction? I agree mentioning the possibility of entering Voldemort's Horcrux network is a valid solution, neither of them can prove this won't happen and Voldemort was surprised in the first place by the fact that the Map identified both of them as Tom Riddle. The Horcrux network might do the same thiing.
If knowledge of the True Patronus can prevent people from being able to cast Patronus 1.0, is there a way for knowledge of the True Patronus to harm Voldemort?
If what he said back in front of the Dementor is true, Voldie can't cast the Patronus regardless.
What about Harry changing Voldie's understanding of death?
I've seen it on a couple of other comment threads, but I think that Harry's understanding of time-causality is key here. If the lesson of the Comed-Tea is learned, it seems that efforts to defy prophecy are useless from the get-go.
But then I'm not practiced at arguing time-travel mechanics - can anyone else elaborate on this question?
This is not quite phrased correctly. While I know less magic than the protagonist (having not attended Hogwarts for a year), I know far more physics and mathematics than he does. I am also privy to world-building knowledge that he isn't. For example, we know about major artefacts:
We also know little trivia:
In conclusion: it's not enough for us to think of a solution, we also need to explain how Harry can think of it. There's no point in simulating Harry's smarts on my hardware, I can use my own smarts. But I do need to simulate Harry's knowledge.
Similarly, it would be seriously pushing it to rely on any scientific advances of the last (real-world) decade or so, unless there's a reason Harry would be able to at least semi-plausibly pre-discover them himself. Not that I can think of any of those which would help anyhow, but it's something to keep in mind.
Future tech - even things we think we could perhaps do - is probably right out. Harry could conceivably transfigure something (his epidermis, for example; has anybody mentioned that yet?) into a material that we know exists or could exist, and can describe in atomic or sub-atomic detail, yet can't synthesize; an arbitrary isotope of an arbitrary element should probably be possible, for example. He can't use transfiguration to produce something with negative mass (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_mass), though... at least, I would assume not, even if the science he knows suggests that such a thing is theoretically possible.
If you have any remotely good idea, post it as a fanfiction.net review. The currently extant ones are awful. Most don't even make sense.
I like the one about causing a nuclear holocaust by splitting one atom.
My favourite so far have been the reviews that are actually reviews. There's one that accuses EY of breaking the fanfiction.net TOS, which does not permit "choose your own adventure" stories....
headdesk
Important: QQ's earlier parseltongue-spoken plans for Harry to become ruler of the world were said before he heard the 'tear apart the stars' prophecy. So it appears V changed his mind after hearing the prophecy.
That's entirely reasonable. Parseltongue translates your thoughts to your voice, it doesn't bind your actions.
This is very similar to a solution I published earlier, except that when I first proposed it, I had forgotten that Harry hadn't got his wand at that point in time (but why hasn't he been disarmed now?).
The one plausible power Harry has is transfiguration, seeing as there are no dementors nearby, it seems unlikely that the patronus 2 can be used as an offensive weapon against anything apart from dementors.
Harry should transfigure some exotic matter with density far in excess of normal matter, and use it to slice through all the death eaters and Voldiemort. Since it has been established that you can transfigure against tension, he doesn't even need to move his hand to wield this weapon: the power of transfiguration can move it around in a circle.
I'm guessing this exotic matter will be silver in colour:
As for what type of exotic matter, tau particles, top and bottom quarks are all extremely unstable. This might not matter, because if transfigured into parts of particles, perhaps they would be stable, in the same way that free neutrons are not stable but nuclei are, although a google search seemed to indicate that muonic atoms are stable iff they are electron degenerate. But for that matter, I don't even know if stability applies to objects that are being transfigured.
A second concern is the hypothosis that strange matter is more stable than normal matter, and thus a stranglet would consume the earth. I don't know if this hypothosis was around in 1992, or whether Harry would have heard of it. If this does occur to him, then it might block the use of strange quarks. But I presume charm quarks are ok.
I think transfigureation is silent, and does not involve wand movements, rather the wand has to be kept stationary and in contact with the object, so it will not warn the death eaters and give them a chance to strike. The material to be transfigured could be part of the wand, or an outer layer of Harry's skin.
What are the other possibilities?
Someone else suggested that partial transfigureation could be used as a cutting weapon. I imagine it would be stopped by sheilds, but I suppose its possible.
Transfigured normal matter, including carbon nanotubes, would not be able to penetrate sheilds (in fact, carbon nanotubes have low sheer strength, so they would make very poor cutting implements).
What else is silver? The patronus can be willed to take the form of a sphere, so presumably it could be willed to take the form of a blade. But something powered by life should not be able to kill, even if it could penetrate sheilds. The dark patronus? Fulled by the desire to stop the death of those you love by killing those you hate?
Unicorn's blood? Hermoine the alicorn princess's blood? Doesn't seem like an effective weapon.
Could an extremely thin steel wire penetrate matter by partially transfigureing its way through, and penetrate shields by going underground, and coming up through the feet? Can sheilds defend against attacks from below, or do they cut off at the ground?
EDIT: The exotic matter weapon will be very small so perhaps no death eater will see it. To buy time to think, or for the transfigureation to work, Harry might need to start giving Voldie useful information, such as the patronus, which he can truthfully point out poses no threat to Voldie, because Voldie can't cast patronus v.1. Awaking Hermione, or causing a resonance cascade with Voldie could cause a distraction. Possibly Harry could come back from one hour in the future to help the battle, although we now have a situation where Harry survives, but only if he survives, and I'm not sure about how causial loops are supposed to work. For that matter, future surviving Harry could have brought the cavalry back in time with him, if this wasn't explicitly forbidden.
EDIT 2: Magnetic monoples might be the best shot, although this would be thin enough to be invisible, not silver. http://www.orionsarm.com/eg-article/48630634d2591
It can? I don't remember that. But if true, can it be willed to take the form of a sphere around Harry, thereby providing a perfect anti-Killing Curse shield?
Not going to stop Fiendfyre, or any of a hundred other things Voldy can do to kill him.
No, the resonance effect will take care of that.
Voldemort's only viable means of killing him immediately and directly is the gun.
That is very unlikely.
Why?
He's a competent antagonist.
He is. But assuming that he is super-prepared, beyond the abilities and equipment we've seen or been given reason to postulate, results in an unsolvable puzzle. Someone as intelligent, experienced, prepared and resourceful as Voldemort could theoretically have a counter for anything we can come up with.
We know or can reasonably assume that he obtained a gun specifically as a solution to the problem of not being able to injure or kill Harry with magic. We don't have any reason to believe that he has prepared further, backup solutions to that specific problem.
There's one thing for which it's genuinely impossible for V to have a counter: the realization that killing Harry is not in his interests. Speaking in Parseltongue, bound by the Vow, Harry is uniquely prepared to make that case -- assuming it's true.
Well, that's the sticking point. Parseltongue and the Vow prove that Harry is honest. They don't prove that he's right, and Voldemort can simply choose to dismiss any of Harry's arguments as insufficient (which isn't that hard, given that the risk of keeping him alive is the end of the world, and any risk incurred by killing him is probably going to be less bad).
Or having a Death Eater do it for him.
The patronus is willed to take the form of a sphere when Harry leads the Aurors to rescue Draco. And, yes, it might protect from AKs and from Voldie, but the Death Eaters have been instructed to attack Harry with a wide variety of curses.
Weapon: 37 ants.
Harry can test the limits of Parseltongue's truth detection properties. "I am plugged in to your Horcrux network and will not be stopped by killing me now."
Hm, Harry can't lie in Parseltongue, meaning he can't claim what he doesn't believe, but he can probably state something of unclear truth if he is sufficiently motivated to believe it.
It'd be a nice irony if part of Harry's ultimate "rationality" test involves deliberately motivated reasoning. :D
He just has to say there is a reasonable chance of this, which is true, as far as anyone knows. Also, he can say there is a chance that it will trigger the magical resonance and destroy the entire network and Voldemort himself, and possibly go on to fulfill the prophecy.
Interesting, so it all comes down to a version of the AI box experiment.
"Write what you know" is pretty good writing advice. What's really curious is whether anyone will be able to conclude from the True Ending how EY broke out of the box the first time.
Thinking about it, the situation is basically the AI box experiment from Voldy's point of view. He has a boxed unfriendly super-intelligence (Harry) that he's going to destroy just as soon as he finishes talking to it.
Only now we and Eliezer have swapped places.
"Expecto Patronum", at which point Death-Eaters will fire an utterly futile barrage of AKs. Voldy still can't fire directly at Harry due to resonance. Gun is not as much concern if you move fast enough and considering Voldy is some distance away. Gives Harry enough elbow room to get to his nearby (?) Pouch, Cloak and Time-Turner with 1 more hour on it. At this point we're sorta free of any serious constraints.
So the Patronum is between Harry and each and every one of the death eaters? That seems dubious, unless he's wearing it like a suit.
Also, they been instructed to use different attacks, so unless the Patronus blocks everything I don't think it'd stop everything that would come his way.
Wearing the Patronus isn't any more dubious than casting it inside of Hermione to revive her. You're right about stunners instead of AKs of course, but that can be blocked by a thin invisible tranfigured shield (air into glass, since apparently he can transfigure arbitrary atomic structures). Transfiguration is wordless and he has a wand. I mean, this isn't anywhere near as deus-ex-machina as half of the Azkaban escape anyway.
Read a comment above; he cannot transfigure air.
That was prior to PT.
You're right, I should have read more comments myself.
Read a comment above; he can cast the Patronus in the shape of a sphere.
Thoughts:
1)+2) In canon, apparition and portkey creation are both pretty advanced magic. (Apparition is typically taught at Hogwarts to 6th year students, while portkey creation is not part of the curriculum, as far as I know.) Unless you have a good indication that Harry knows either of those spells, I consider this highly unlikely.
3) Even if Harry manages to force such a magical interaction near-instantly (which I will consider unlikely until I see a sufficiently detailed description), since this will not help against the Death Eaters. And before Harry is able to perform a second move, the Death Eaters will have killed him in their first move.
4)+5) Transfiguration is an interesting possibility, but both plans seems unsatisfactory to me; not quite sure, why, though. I’ll have to think about that again …
6) Again, any plan that does not incapacitate the Death Eaters very quickly, seems unlikely to work.
If Harry is able to touch his wand to Voldemort's brain you've already done the exciting part of the plan. I don't see how he'd do that though.
(EDIT: I thought about this some more, produced a better solution, submitted it as a review, and also posted it here)
Voldemort knows that Harry possesses an altered version of the Patronus spell, and something else that affects dementors, but not the spell's nature. Harry can buy time by offering to explain how these work, by doing so, and negotiating for more names. Harry can truthfully say that learning certain things about the Patronus and about Dementors will have side-effects that Voldemort may not want, and that this means he needs to think about what to say. Voldemort will surely exert time pressure, but can only speed this up by so much if he wants to fulfill his goal of gaining all of Harry's secret powers. He can also try to convince Voldemort to let him cast his modified patronus; this is very unlikely to work, but should be done anyways because seeming to not try any tricks would itself be suspicious.
A winning strategy should simultaneously disable all of the death eaters present and Voldemort himself. Voldemort will be disabled if their magics touch, especially if that touch can be sustained.
The main weapon at Harry's disposal is partial transfiguration. I spoke first of buying time, because we also know that transfiguration takes time, although we don't know all the details of how the time requirement is determined or where in the process there is first external evidence of a transfiguration in progress. Harry has already practiced transfiguring thin cross-sections through things, and used this power in anger twice (in Azkaban and against the troll), so he should know what he can do there, how long it will take, and when it will become visible.
Harry can only transfigure something that touches his wand. So he transfigures a narrow segment starting at his wand, passing through himself into the ground, and proceeding from there.
Since one turn of Harry's time turner remains, if a plan ends with Harry recovering his items, then there may be an extra invisibility-cloaked, fully equipped copy of him nearby. While there is a charm that Voldemort could have cast which would detect if that were so, we don't actually see him cast it. However, the resonance effect would reveal his presence; so instead, if Harry manages to time turn and escape, he should immediately contact and lend his cloak to Mad-Eye Moody.
If Harry can get a partial transfiguration off, there are a ton of possibilities. Harry has recently learned how, in a complex transfiguration, to control the order in which parts appear. So these options are not mutually exclusive; he can perform several or all of them at once.
Ideally, he would do all of these things as part of the same transfiguration; but that might be too much.
(Not a serious suggestion)
Using the Axiom of Choice and partial transfiguration, Harry divides himself into two exact copies, one of which is killed by the Death Eaters and the other of which escapes.
Mathematical progress ground to a standstill in March of 2015, when thousands of researches abandoned their work to search for a constructive proof of the Banach–Tarski theorem.
I think a big question here is "what kinds of magic, if any, are available?". Answer might be "none". Partial transfig takes too long, everything else requires motion.
That seems to leave to possibilities:
In other words, no known magic is useful in this situation.
Does that seem reasonable? Does anyone remember a form of magic that doesn't require motion or time?
He learned that he can will his own transfigurations to end wandlessly and without spoken words.
So, release of magic doesn't require movement. That's something.
I made a countdown timer.
We know that previous attempts by Voldemort to thwart a prophecy have backfired horribly. It therefore seems reasonable to assume that prophecies in HPMoR (as in canon) are self-fulfilling. (Warning: TVTropes-link!)
I therefore predict that Voldemort’s efforts to thwart this prophecy will counteract that intention and lead to the fulfillment of that same prophecy.
Thoughts:
Isn't this its only use?
I mean the existing unbreakable vow that Harry has just been bound by could perhaps be used for something else.
(Plausible) Harry can stall for time by explaining his discovery of Mendelian magical inheritance, and the implication that magic is not a property of Wizards but rather bestowed upon them, possibly by the Atlantean Matrix lords. This is a power, or at least knowledge, the Dark Lord knows not, and it gives him time to do his Partial Transfiguration attack, while also not giving Voldemort any kind of immediate strategic advantage.
(Implausible) This would then segue into a discussion of whether Voldemort is just seeing his CEV, and simulated-Harry trying to break it. Somehow, they end up breaking the Mirror's illusion, thus destroying this "world".
Posting write-only. EDIT I am no longer write-only
Recall Harry's transfiguration power:
With this Harry can:
Dumbledore can cast the Patronus wordlessly (chapter 57). Maybe Harry can too, and
Of course, there are lots of solutions if you allow Harry to have done stuff off-camera. "Cedric, if I don't meet you at 11:59 tonight carrying a mayonnaise-infused gerbil, please use your time turner to cause a paradox". Harry could turn into his hitherto unseen animagus form ETA which might be a peregrine falcon, the fastest of birds.
Useful
Evidence we have the Harry doesn't
The Foreshadowed Weasley Loot was invoked - the gun.
I was going to correct you
But then I remembered -- no handguns in Britain! That was a clue I missed right there!
Harry's assets:
Foreshadowing / prior hints of resources:
That seems to rule out apparition, portkeys, phoenixes, and time looping, so transfiguring a time turner into his hands is out, as is trying to get into a Phoenix frame of mind to summon Fawkes or another phoenix to send a message, or using his portkey.
This vaguely suggests a few options:
Harry can sort of wandlessly wordlessly cast something like a Patronus, he could try to do something like this to Voldemort.
This strongly suggests a Buckytube monofilament whipped around to decapitate all the Death Eaters. This is the most plausible solution, and it's somewhat compatible with the other Partial Transfiguration option, which is to tell Voldemort about it in exchange for protecting Harry's life (and to buy time). This is also compatible with Harry's glasses being a transfigured shield (or transfigured charmed magical shield, in either case there's no reason someone couldn't have just magically LASIK-ed his vision), which would give him a defense against any non-Killing Curse spells that go his way from anyone he doesn't immediately kill. Then he lunges for (or accios) the pouch and cloak, retrieving Hufflepuff (Susan) Bones and Cedric, to help him fight the remaining Death Eaters (or go for help). Then he casts a Patronus to get McGonagall (and insists she not disrupt the game).
Ah, better yet - the glasses should be his broomstick. Or his broomstick AND a shield. AND a gas mask. Fit together (since glasses are composite objects anyway).
OK, so here's the attack plan, to tear apart Voldemort's plan at every possible point of intervention:
1) While transfiguring a long buckytube monofilament out of his own flesh, tell Voldemort about partial transfiguration, demand that Harry himself be saved in return.
2) Wordlessly cast the Patronus at Voldemort to try to throw him off balance - as a bonus, if he manages a worldess wandless corporeal Patronus it can do step 5 early, OR possibly block a Killing Curse (not sure).
3) Whip the buckytube around to slice through a bunch of Death Eaters. Simultaneously, wordlessly wandlessly finite incantatem the glasses to detransfigure his broomstick.
4) Fly to (or accio while dodging curses) the pouch, extract Susan and Cedric, put on the cloak. They know from battle class that they should lift the sleep spell on their ally Hermione. (Harry shouldn't since it would be an interaction with Voldemort's magic that would be more likely to harm Harry than Voldemort.)
5) Cast a Patronus to get help from McGonagall (who can use her time turner so as not to disrupt the game), telling her to bring every competent battle mage she can get.
6) Cast Stuporfy at Voldemort to try and trigger the magical resonance, then fly straight at him to give him a hug.
This also works well dramatically - it would effectively allow Harry to explain what he's doing as he's doing it.
Is Sirius a Death Eater in this fic? In canon, he was thought to be one, but he never was. Conversely, if he is a Death Eater in this fic, then why would he be Harry's ally? (And Harry knows none of this in any case.)
ETA: Well, Harry does know the general reasons that everybody thinks that Sirius is a Death Eater. But he doesn't know why Sirius might be his ally, or why he might be called ‘Mr. Grim’ (which frankly is a bit extra-universe even to Sirius and Voldemort), or AFAICT why Sirius might not be locked up in Azkaban (since he had no reaction to hearing ‘I'm not serious!’ when he was there).
Here's my idea, which I've posted as a review on FF.net. Harry has advanced transfiguration. The Philosopher's Stone can make transfiguration permanent. Harry can bring life to dead things. This is very close to Harry being able to create copies of himself, which would surely be attractive to Harry. The question, then, is; when did Harry first realize this capacity?The possibility of creating a body double might very well have been enough to have persuaded Dumbledore to let Harry use the Philosopher's stone, which he seems to have access to. Or Harry might have procured the stone himself, which he seems able to, intellectually. It's just a matter of procuring a confundus charm. The current Harry could have been memory-charmed into believing he was the original Harry and this ruse may have gone on for quite some time (though reviving Hermione would have made it obvious that he had this power, and I'm not sure if Harry would have demured to do so if he thought he could. I suspect he'd have to be persuaded by someone else.) It might help in explaining why Harry could attack Voldemort, since Voldemort's curse bound only Tom Riddles "descended from him", and the current double would have been "descended" from Harry.
In this case our Harry could be destroyed and another Harry would still live (and could even play off his surviving destruction as a type of magic, snapping his fingers.) Similarly, could Harry sacrifice one of his doubles to create a horcrux and then inhabit a spare transfigured body, laying in stasis somewhere (like his bag of holding?) This seems a bit dark for Harry, but maybe possible.
I'm not sure what the limitations on this type of duplication magic would be. Perhaps multiple Harrys would need to be created 'from hit points' and even if one Harry could make another they might each be weaker or draw on the original Harry's HPs. But an army of Harry Potters striding over the hill wouldn't be a bad solution to this problem. Chaos Army of One. etc.
It occurs to me that, given the philosopher's stone is around, any superweapons Harry could create and conceal with it in slightly under an hour could exist in the clearing, provided that they're enough to let Harry survive another hour, access the time turner, and create said superweapons.
Also, since prophecies are self-fulfilling and Voldemort prefers a world that won't end to a world that will and Harry has already made the appropriate unbreakable vow to do everything to prevent the end of the world, Harry could argue that expected universe where Voldemort lets Harry live is far superior to the one where Harry dies.
The case for thinking seriously about Partial Transfiguration:
1) Partial transfiguration is wordless, but wanded.
2) it's a power Riddle doesn't know as per the prophecy.
3) Harry still holding his wand is a Chekov's Gun for a wanded spell such as transfiguration.
4) Yes, that does seems too obvious, but I don't think Eliezer wants to end the story here so he wouldn't want an extremely subtle puzzle.
5) The only evidence against is that Quirrell might have ripped it from Hermione's mind...but he wouldn't know what to look for, would he? And Dumbledore may well have obliviated it away.
Constraints
1) Only very small amounts of matter can be transfigured
2) The want must not be raised, so Harry must transfigure the ground he's pointing at. No transfiguring people's bodies or anything fancy. The air can also be transfigured.
3) Outright explosives will kill Harry as well, so you can't just make a small patch of antimatter or airborne lethal toxin unless you can find a way to shield Harry.
So, guys - any ideas as to what thimbleful of tiny molecules, placed in the earth a few feet away from Harry, can save him?
EDIT: The case against partial transfiguration as a solution
1) Too obvious
2) Harry holding the wand not Chekov's gun. Riddle is aware that he aught to have disarmed Harry. Not disarming Harry means that somehow Riddle has contingency plans or even actively wants Harry to use the wand.
3) Any combat oriented action almost certainly involves death, regardless of head starts and discreteness, even if we manage to take down Riddle's current body.
Immediate Idea #1: Take deep breath. Transform tiny piece of ground into a gas. Start explaining secret in parseltongue, do not inhale. Voldemort inhales some of the gas, causing magical resonance. Voldemort hopefully dis-corporates. Harry and death eaters comes down with probably curable transfiguration sickness, Harry less so for not having inhaled.
Harry still dies because the death eater's fire on him, so this idea fails :(
Still, in Harry's place, with as much time to think as Harry has had, this is what I would do. (Followed by casting the patronus charm ASAP to block the incoming barrage of AK, ducking, Bubblehead charm, and massive, lethal-to-anyone-that-breathes transfigurations. It's probably too much to hope that at least one death eater was a spy, but that would also help. It sucks that Harry can't Apparate.)
I'm not too sure about your #4, but #2 definitely cannot be counted upon to be true.
In Chapter 92, in a conversation between McG and LV:
It has been pointed out that if LV discarded treating this as a game, which does appear to be the case, then he may well have been using Legilimency on McG, in which case he would know of it, at least.
Which isn't to say that we couldn't use it to bargain for the lives of others, or whatnot. But you can't trust that it's still unknown to LV.
Furthermore, have we seen Harry transfigure the air? I remember him speculating that he could, trying, and failing. I don't remember him succeeding at a different time.
I really do like dxu's "If you harm me greatly, the universe will end" or something similar in Parseltounge, though. (Since it will end with or without Harry's intervention, this is still true.) It seems the most elegant solution and would buy time to implement some other solution. hm. This system ate my previous post.
I'll have to rewrite it.
While this might be a little deus ex machina for Eliezer Yudkowsky, Harry can create a doppleganger of himself. He's recently learned more complex transfigurations. Dumbledore had access to the Philosopher's Stone, which could make such transfigurations permanent. Harry's special patronus seems to help the process in some cases. These are very complementary abilities.
If Harry could clone a copy of himself from a part of himself, and that copy could be made to forget it's origin then the captured Harry might not have to be the real Harry at all, and could be sacrificed. Harry could theoretically make an army of himself, even, and hide them in his bag of holding or some other place like a clown car. Further, Harry could clone himself and use that clone to make a horcrux gaining some kind of immortality without murder. I doubt that Dumbeldore would allow such dark magics, though.
Thought some more, and I have some ideas.
One of the realizations I think I had is that magic recognizes divisions where there are none. PT being the prime example, but also the ability of armor to block spells. PT relies on removing the caster's understanding of divisions; what if there is a way to add divisions? If Harry can convince himself that his skin is not part of himself, will it block spells the way thick leather does?
Conversely, are there other divisions that open possibilities if removed? Like between people and the ground, or people and people?
Most thinking I'm reading about uses PT to create a weapon with which to attack, but attack is not the goal. Escape is. Means of escape fall into a few categories, I think: Figuring out something like Apparition on the spot, quantum tunnelling, or Newtonian. Right now I'm just going to think about "newtonian" - It's just as ridiculous for transfiguration to not include velocity as it is for it to only effect "discrete" objects. Can Harry simply add enough velocity to himself to escape? (Adding acceralation doesn't work, as enough to escape fast enough probably squishes him)
Here are crazier things:
There's good proper acausality in this universe. Coma-tea, time-turners, and the Stars spell. What's going on there? Is there some way to use that?
At first, there is evidence that changes to the body and brain effect the mind. But, there's also a pile of evidence that, under circumstances, it doesn't - Horcurxes, and both resurrections. What if Harry can detach his life/magic from his body?
The Map says that Harry is Tom Riddle. So although it probably doesn't satisfy Eliezer, since you could say it is not "avoiding immediate death" in the physical sense, and it is not through his own efforts (Eliezer's stipulation), in reality the ending in which he survives could simply be they kill him as planned, he ends up in Tom Riddle's Horcrux network and can go and propose to someone that he take over his body at least temporarily.
Harry obviousely needs to buy some time, so he'd better start speaking. Patronus V2.0 grants only the "good" kind of power and feeds on caster's maxHP, so it could be revealed easier than partial transfiguration. Some meaningful amount of time is going to be acquired (while explaining HPJEV's viewpoint) that way, because HPJEV and LV oppose death in entirely different ways (one wants to fight it and the other one flees). But that's too easy and either is not in the solution at all or is followed but something more clever.
By the way, nobody said that that quote about falling black robes was from the good ending. Nor we have a 100% proof that Patronus V2.0 blocks any AK: it could be only LV's AK, due to resonance.
Also, assuming that both HPJEV and Hermione survive with their memories intact and have a chance to talk, it's going to be very awkward. Being murdered by LV can be expected, at least, but it's not easy at all to tell Hermione that she has just been brutally resurrected with at least three Dark rituals, has her mind state constantly backed up to a Dark item and regereneration ability similar to the one of the weapon which killed her in the first place.
The part that's going to really get to Hermione is the fact that someone (original Quirrell) was killed for her sake.
And that not-aging thing the regeneration ability grants her isn't necessarily going to be awesome either. What if her body decides to continuously regenerate into the form of her present-aged self?
Trolls do grow up, as previously notied. That's not the most likely way for that to be a problem. Rather the reverse. I mean, if troll regen runs off your genetic template, there is a good chance she is going to wake up as the prime-of-life (22?) adult version of herself, and continuously revert to that. I would even call it likely, except that from a meta perspective it would cause.. squicky.. reactions.
Why doesn't LV tell one of the DEs to finite incantatem HP's glasses?
and tell Harry to drop his wand now that the Vow is over, otherwise the other Death Eaters kill him.
Re-reading the story, this made me smirk in light of recent revelations:
Harry might not be able to transfigure air into solid objects, but he can still transfigure air into other gases, right?
Even if the Death Eaters' masks had some kind of air filter enchantment on them, they likely don't anymore:
So perhaps Harry could partially transfigure the air around the semicircle of Death Eaters into some highly toxic invisible gas while leaving enough normal air between the gas and himself that it would be slow enough to propagate that he would have time to deal with Voldemort and get away and/or diluted enough that it wouldn't incapacitate him?
HP should ask LV whether his robes are black and blue or gold and white.
It's a shame that nobody's going along this line of thought. It would be cool to see a full, successful AI-Box experiment out there as a fanfiction.
(I'd do it myself, but my previous attempts at such have been.... eheh. Less than successful.)
LV clearly doesn't want the world to end. What would make him believe that killing HP ends the world?
http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/lsp/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/c22c
Actually, this isn't anywhere near as hard as the AI Box problem. Harry can honestly say he is the best option for eliminating the unfriendly AGI / Atlantis problem. 1) Harry just swore the oath that binds him, 2) Harry understands modern science and its associated risks, 3) Harry is 'good', 4) technological advancement will certainly result in either AGI or the Atlantis problem (probably sooner than later), and 5) Voldemort is already worried about prophecy immutability so killing Harry at this stage means the stars still get ripped apart, but without all the ways in which that could happen with Harry making the result 'good').
Planning thread over at /r/HPMOR for centralized discussion. It's probably better to have segregated groups working on this, but I don't really think that'll be a problem.
Obvious potentially useful moves:
Buy time with discussion of secret powers (partial Transfiguration and true Patronus), since we're optimizing primarily for surviving the immediate situation and not for preventing Voldemort from knowing useful powers.
Partially Transfigure himself in some useful way, depending on subsequent access to PStone to avoid T. sickness.
Cast Patronus centered on himself to blind and to block AKs. (Problem: doesn't block other curses. But if he moves, Death Eaters might fire at the shiny thing instead of at him.)
Un-Transfigure glasses into whatever emergency countermeasure Harry could have chosen. (Note: will still be stuck to Harry's face, so no bombs or suchlike.)
I've been primarily thinking along the lines of defense, escape, mobility. Once Harry gets to the Time Turner or the pouch he has more options.
Why not ? I mean, yeah, obviously Harry would want to survive; but if there was some way to take out Voldemort while also taking out himself (and possibly Hermione), and there was nothing better that Harry could come up with in 60 seconds; then the logical course of action would be to go ahead and do that.
Because it is unlikely that Harry would have precommitted to blowing himself up as a general emergency countermeasure.
ROT 13ed Final Exam suggestion:
Va Cnefyrgbathr "Jung cebonovyvgl qb lbh nffvta gb gur cbffvovyvgl gung V nz fhssvpvragyl Gbz Evqqyr gung V jvyy or pbcvrq vagb lbhe Ubepehk argjbex?"
Harry can also dispel any of his transfiguration wandlessly and wordlessly. So any toxic substance he creates he can dispel as it reaches him.
Voldemort might be failing to anticipate partial Transfiguration that has no visible effects (although it's unclear why Harry is allowed to hold the wand after the Vow is done). It might be Transfiguration of the tip of the wand or of a patch of own skin. Transfiguring it into carbon nanotube wires (Ch. 28) or something else super thin that's good at cutting things might make the result both deadly and invisible, while keeping the amount of stuff small in order to be able to complete the process in reasonable time (as with cutting the wall in Azkaban, Ch. 58). There is a problem with moving the Transfigured wires into place, but the "shaping exercises" (Ch. 104) might allow doing that using the process of Transfiguration itself (so that the original material might "grow spikes" that climb like vines over the area where the Death Eaters are standing and then rise up into place).
In Ch. 111 we see that it's possible to gradually break a Transfiguration (without a wand). This might gradually transform the wires back into a small object, cutting the Death Eaters into pieces in the process. The alternative ways of triggering the wires might be to yank them quickly enough; to prepare a simple contraption as part of the Transfiguration, to pull the wires without Harry's movement (a falling stone, if one is conveniently positioned, etc.); or to use the "shaping" process to perform the cutting movement as part of the Transfiguration itself. Possibility of some of these things depends on knowledge that Harry probably has, but readers aren't certain about.
If the hypothesis that magical resonance hurts Voldemort more than Harry is correct, the same action would also incapacitate Voldemort, countering superior magic. Anything less, like doing something to the gun, seems pointless, and magical resonance seems to be the only adequately strong available weapon, so this risk should be taken if there are no better alternatives.
This requires some time, so the first thing should be to start talking. It can't be about partial Transfiguration, but perhaps Dementors could be explained (even if this can't help Voldemort cast Patronus 2.0, maybe it can make him a master of the Cloak, or allow training a minion to cast Patronus 2.0). Another point that I don't see how to rule out is the possibility that Harry's death would send him into Voldemort's Horcrux network, which might harm Voldemort or lock him out. Discussing this might also buy some time, maybe a lot of time if Voldemort agrees that this is a serious risk that requires further study before Harry can be allowed to die.
If the move is successful, Voldemort needs to be incapacitated both inside or outside the Horcrux network, so the damage to the currently accessible body should be limited. It's still not clear that he can be incapacitated in a body, since he mentions ability to abandon a body at will (Ch. 107), but magical resonance might make him temporarily lose consciousness (evidence from Azkaban), giving time to put the body into some further containment. Perhaps he can be locked in with brain damage. I'd guess that Transfiguring Voldemort's body into something inert like a tree wouldn't stop the spirit from leaving it. Maybe if the body is surrounded by a sphere of material Transfigured by Harry, then magical resonance would prevent the spirit from escaping, though I don't see how we can expect this with any reliability, since the nature of this spirit thing is unclear. (Any solution to Voldemort containment that involves Transfiguration could be made to last with Philosopher's Stone, although applying the Stone to Harry's resonance Transfiguration should be first put to test, to check if the resonance remains intact.)
Following the principle that a disaster must be averted at every possible point of intervention, all these potentially useful measures should be applied at the same time. Even if the body is contained, Resurrection Stone and other horcruxes should be found and destroyed.
(By the way, tearing stars apart is just good sense, to use their matter and energy more efficiently. This might be a nice project to undertake sometime after defeating death and before the end of the world.)
Didn't V see at least the results of a Partial Transfiguration in Azkaban (used to cut through the wall)? Doesn't seem like something V would just ignore or forget.
I believe Voldemort was unconscious at the time, following a magical feedback mishap at the conclusion of his duel with Bahry. Bellatrix was awake, but probably not very coherent after eleven years in Azkaban, and Voldemort strikes me as the type to dismiss confusing reports from unreliable underlings.
Chapter 58
I'm kind of worried about this... all the real attempted solutions I've seen use partial transfiguration. But if we take "the antagonist is smart" seriously, and given the precedent for V remembering and connecting obscure things (e.g. the Resurrection Stone), we should assume V has protections against that tactic. It is not a power the Dark Lord knows not. And come to think of it, V also saw Harry cutting trees down with partial transfiguration.
Why hasn't Voldemort suspended Harry in air? He floated himself into the air as a precaution against proximity, line of sight problems, and probably magics that require a solid substance to transmit through. If Harry were suspended in air partial transfiguration options would be vastly reduced.
Why hasn't Voldemort rendered Harry effectively blind/deaf/etc. - Harry is gaining far more information in real time than necessary for Voldemort's purposes?
Also, it seems prudent not to let Harry get all over the place by shooting him, smashing him, etc. without some form of containment. I don't know how some part of Harry could cause problems, but it seems prudent to eliminate every part of him with Fiendfyre (blood, guts, and all) if that is what Voldemort is aiming for.
Can Fawkes be summoned to extract Harry? If it helps Harry can decide to go to Azkaban.
Harry should be aware that reality is basically doomed to repeat the Atlantis mistake by now (either via AGI or whatever Atlantis unlocked). With the vow that Voldemort made him take he can honestly say that he is the best bet to avoid that fate. That is, Voldemort now needs Harry (and Hermione) to save reality. This seems like the most straight forward method get out of the current annoyance.
Some partial transfiguration options I haven't seen mentioned: - Colorless / odorless neuro toxins (Harry should have researched these as he is in 'serious mode' now that Hermione died). Delivered via the ground directly into each death eater and/or into the air in specific areas. - Nanobots - I can't recall at this time if this would work or if Harry needs to have the design already in his head. It is possible Atlantis tech. may utilize a vast array of these already. - Transfiguration may allow one to exploit quantum weirdness. Many things can happen at very small scales that could happen at large scales if everything is lined up just so (which never happens in reality, but transfiguration may make possible).
I wrote a version of this up at reddit too, but it seems to me trying to hack the laws of physics is wasted effort when we know very little about how magic works in concrete terms. We don't know what Harry can really do, how fast he can do it, or whether Voldemort would notice.
What we do know are: * how Harry thinks * how Eliezer thinks * what Voldemort wants
So we should be looking at things Harry could say that would advance his goal of surviving rather than trying to come up with a combination of spells, with the understanding that winning ideas are probably going to cluster around narrative interventions that EY thinks are interesting or important. A few that spring to mind:
Memetic hazard: are there things Harry could say or bring to Voledmort's attention that would pose an existential risk to him if he harms Harry
Let the AI out of the box: is there something Harry can offer Voldemort such that Voldemort goes against his stated agenda
Precommitment / timeless decision theory: are there ways Harry can manipulate the unbreakable vow to force certain conditions in the future
Learning to lose: what if Harry surrenders and agrees to join Voldemort, with a commitment Voldemort finds convincing
Unintended consequences: Harry makes a convincing case that there is no way to outthink an inevitability other than to fulfill it in terms that are advantageous to you.
I really think didactic lessons about rationality are going to be better, and more appealing to EY's sensibilities, than trying to fanwank some way to use magic to kill 38 people in a single play. We just don't have the rulebook for that.
I made my suggestion.
Assuming you can take down the death eaters, I think the correct follow-up for despawning LV is... massed somnium.
We've seen somnium be effective at range in the past, taking down an actively dodging broomstick rider at range. We've seen the resonance hit LV harder than Harry, requiring tens of minutes to recover versus seconds.
LV is not wearing medieval armor to block the somnium. LV is way up high, too far away to have good accuracy with a hand gun.If LV dodges behind something, Harry has time to expecto patronum a message out.
... I think the main risk is LV apparating away, apparating back directly behind harry, and pulling the trigger.
Against a person-sized target, if its user is a decent shot, your average modern handgun is accurate to about twenty-five meters. Voldemort probably isn't that far away, and I'd expect him to know what he's doing. He's shooting one-handed, and left-handed at that, but I wouldn't rely on that.
On the other hand, when he was laying out his plan, he was going to have one of his mooks shoot Harry. That's unlike him, and it might point to him still being bound by his Riddle curse, or to enough caution over unintended consequences to take the gun out of play for the moment.
I think you forgot the 37(?) Death Eaters pointing their wands at Harry. You also forgot Voldie's famed reflexes, and a bullet definitely goes faster than a spell.
If I may quote from my post:
and:
Dear Eliezer,
Although you've requested an individual exam format, two mathematicians aren't "the same smart" as the smartest of the two of them.
You spend many chapters teaching Harry the importance of collaboration.
So I'm afraid I urge everyone to do the opposite of what you've suggested and collaborate. Sorry.
Quirrelmort would be disgusted with us if we refused to consider 'cheating' and would certainly kill us for refusing to 'cheat' if that was likely to be extremely helpful.
"Cheating is technique, the Defense Professor had once lectured them. Or rather, cheating is what the losers call technique, and will be worth extra Quirrell points when executed successfully."
I am actually reluctant to think of ways for HP to escape, because I am kind of rooting for LV in this fic. Sure, he is ruthless and stuff, but he seems to be way less dangerous than Harry, who is prophesied to destroy the world. LV just hates stupid people. Plus he has all but made Hermione immortal, and she the only voice of reason in the story. And he likes gazing at stars, and is against nuclear weapons. A competent ruler is such a rarity. As kings go, he would be considered cute.
How about simply telling Voldemort that he doesn't have a complete model of time, and give him a bunch of examples of things until one is found which voldy wouldn't have predicted. Suggest to voldemort that he should keep harry in a coma until he has done more experiments with Time to derive its nature, and then kill Harry without waking him up.
Harry is allowed to convince voldy to keep him in a coma to kill later. He just has to "evade immediate death", even if there is no hope of survival afterwards
Yes, but given that he might be tied to the horcrux network, that is strictly a more dire defeat than just letting Voldemort kill him. There is a chance his demise will poison the horcruxi for Voldemort - if they are both in there, that should obviously set of the resonance, and that is the end of the dark lord. This is useless as a strategy because if it works at all, it is what will happen if he just does nothing, But bringing it to Voldemort's attention is a loosing move.
I spent a fair bit of time thinking of things to tell Voldemort to get him to stop, but every single idea I came up with had very similar problems to that one - The only things likely to hold his attention are things that make him more of a danger to the world, or threats to his continued existence he should remain ignorant of.
Hence the lightbomb. Then either bluff that he is casting fiend-fire or deliberately trigger the resonance.
Just finished reading. Wow! This story is so bleak. I suspect Voldemort just "identity raped" Harry into becoming an Unfriendly Intelligence? Or at least a grossly grossly suboptimal one. Harry himself seems to be dead.
I'm going to call him HarryPrime now, because I think the mind contained in Riddle2/Harry's body before and after this horror was perpetrated should probably not be modeled as "the same person" as just prior to it.
HarryPrime is based on Harry (sort of like an uploaded and modified human simulation is based on a human) but not the same, because he has been imbued with a mission that he must implacably pursue, that has Harry's identity (and that of the still unconscious(!) and never interviewed(!) Hermione) woven into it as part of its motivational structure, in a sort of twist on coherent extraplotated volition.
Versus how "old Harry" and "revived Hermione" were "#included" into the motivational structure of HarryPrime:
My estimate of Voldemort's intelligence just dropped substantially. He is well trained and in the fullness of his power, but he isn't wise... at all. I'd been modeling him as relatively sane, because of past characterization, but I didn't predict this at all.
(There are way better ways to get a hypothetical HarryPrime to "not do things" than giving him a mission as an unstoppable risk mitigation robot. If course, prophesy means self consistent time travel is happening in the story, and self consistent time travel nearly always means that at least some characters will be emotionally or intellectually blinded to certain facts (so that they do the things that bring about the now-inevitable future) unless they are explicitly relying on self consistency to get an outcome they actively desire, so I guess Voldemort's foolishness is artistically forgivable :-P
Also, still going meta on the story, this is a kind of beautiful way to "spend" the series... bringing it back to AI risk mitigation themes in such a powerfully first person way. "You [the reader identifying with the protagonist] have now been turned by magic into an X-risk mitigation robot!")
Prediction: It makes sense now why Riddle2/HarryPrime will tear apart the stars in heaven. They represent small but real risks. He has basically been identity raped into becoming a sort of Pierson's Pupeeteer (from Larry Niven's universe) on behalf of Earth rather than on behalf of himself, and in Niven's stories the puppeteer's evolved cowardice (because they evolved from herd animals, and are ruled by "the hindmost" rather than a "leader") forced them into minor planetary engineering.
As explained in Le Wik:
Prediction: HarryPrime's first line will be better than any in the LW thread where people talked about the one sentence ai box experiment. Eliezer read that long ago and has thought a lot about the general subject.
Something I'm still not sure about is what exactly HarryPrime will be aiming for. I think that's where Eliezer retains some play in his control over whether the ending is very short and bleak or longer and less bleak.
Voldemort kept talking about "destruction of the world" and "destroying the world" and so on. He didn't say the planet had to have to have people on it, but he might not have been talking about the planet. "The world" in normal speech often seems to mean in practice something like "the social world of the humans who are salient to us". Like in the USA people will often talk about "no one in the world does X" but there are people in other countries who do, and if someone points this out they will be accused of quibbling. Similarly, we tend to talk about "saving the earth" and it doesn't really mean the mantle or the core, it primarily means the biosphere and the economy and humans and stuff.
From my perspective, this was the key flaw of the intent:
The literal text appears to be:
And then the errata and full intention was:
In the shorter and sadder ending, I think it is likely that HarryPrime will escape, but not really care about people, and become an optimizing preservation agent of the mere planet. Thus Harry might escape the box and then start removing threats to the physical integrity of the earth's biosphere.
Also the "trusted friend" stuff is dangerous if Hermione doesn't wake up with a healthy normal mind. In canon, resurrection tended to create copies of what the resurrector remembered of a person, not the person themselves.
In the less sad ending I hope/think that HarryPrime will retain substantial overlap with the original Harry, Hermione will be somewhat OK, and the oath will only cause HarryPrime to be constrained in limited and reasonably positive ways. Maybe he will be risk averse. Maybe he will tear apart the stars because they represent a danger to the earth. Maybe he will exterminate every alien in the galaxy that could pose a threat to the earth. Maybe he will constrain the free will of every human on earth to not allow them to put the earth at risk... but he will still sorta be "the old Harry" while doing so.
I'm curious just how dark Eliezer could make such an ending, if he were inspired to try as hard as possible without concern for other goals/strategy. 'Twould be an interesting read.
Here's a flawed solution, but maybe someone can fix it.
Harry performs partial transfiguration on his brain, to transform it into a state where he thinks that he's booby-trapped the universe (for example, by transfiguring some strangelets along with a confinement field that will expire before the strangelets do). Then he just explains honestly to Voldemort why the universe will end if he dies.
I don't see how there could possibly be a real solution. No matter what Harry offers Voldemort -- for example even if he offers to make an Unbreakable Vow to devote himself to serving Voldemort's purposes -- Voldemort will still worry that the prophecy will mean that Harry will end up destroying the world. So he will simply kill him anyway, like an AI Gatekeeper who doesn't listen but simply says "AI DESTROYED" immediately.
Regardless of other differences in utility function, Harry and Voldemort both want the world to not be destroyed, and consider this of the utmost priority.
Aumann's agreement theorem means that as they are both rationalists, they should be able to come to the same opinion on what the best course of action is to prevent that. Harry was willing to sacrifice himself earlier to save others.
In a sense, the story as of chapter 113 is an easier task than a standard AI box experiment, because HarryPrime has so many advantages over a human trying to play an AI trying to get out of a box.
Almost this exact scenario was discussed here, except without all the advantages that HarryPrime has.
1) He has parseltongue, so the listener is required to believe the literal meaning of everything he says, rather than discounting it as plausible lies. So much advantage here!
2) Voldemort put the equivalent of the "the AI in the box" next to a nearby time machine! Any predictable path that pulls a future HarryPrime into the present, saving present HarryPrime, and causing him to have the ability to go back in time and save himself, will happen. He could have time turned to some time before the binding, and not intervened because his future version is already HarryPrime and approves of HarryPrime coming into existence so HarryPrime can fulfill HarryPrime's goals.
Now that this has happened, HarryPrime, in the moment of his creation, can establish any mental intent that puts him into alignment with HarryPrime's larger outcome. There are limits, as there were when he escaped from being trapped in a locked room after Draco cast Gom Jabbar on him, by forming an intent to time travel and ask for rescuers to arrive just after his intent was formed.
The chronology has to be consistent, but there's a lot of play here.
3) HarryPrime has been unbreakably bound to a task that the binder believes is good by a method the binder thinks he understands.
In a normal "ai box experiment" the gatekeeper hasn't actually built the actual motivational structures of an actual AI. Instead, both humans are just pretending that the "boxed person" is really an AI and really has some or another goal, but they might be pretending differently. Thus, the person role-playing the AI can take very little for granted about what the gatekeeper things about "the AI's" background intent and structure.
The only reason Voldemort has to distrust Harry is the prophesy.
The only "play" in the binding is that Voldemort seems to have chosen HarryPrime's "supergoal content" poorly, so it probably doesn't have the implications that Voldemort thinks it has, though this will only become apparent after several iterations.
HarryPrime is not dumb, and not especially ethical, so until he believes that Voldemort can no longer see the unanticipated implications of his actual request, he will seem to be pursuing the goals Voldemort should have asked for.
4) Voldemort (like an idiot, again after the previous failure to test the horcrux spells) has probably has never performed this sort of spell before, and probably doesn't know what its likely psychological effects will be. He has probably never seen an implacably goal seeking agent before.
Humans, so far as I can tell, are mostly not implacably goal seeking. We wander around in action space, pursuing many competing "goals" that are really mostly tastes that evolution has given us, and role-based scripts we've picked up from ambient culture. We make complex tradeoffs between subjectively incommensurable things and make some forward progress, but much less than is theoretically possible for an effective and single mindedly strategic person.
HarryPrime has an unbreakable vow stripping away all these dithering tendencies. Thus HarryPrime, though probably abhuman at this point, should be able to conceal his abhumanity with relative ease, relying on Voldemort to treat him like a normal human with normal human motivational structures.
Voldemort is already making this error in using threat of torture of Harry's parents to goad HarryPrime into telling Voldemort about "the power he knows not".
I'm pretty sure that HarryPrime now only fundamentally cares about the torture of his parents to the degree that his unbreakable vow let's him fall back on what his earlier self, and Hermione, would recommend or care about, and that clause only triggers when HarryPrime's plans for world saving are themselves somewhat risky.
5) Harry has a huge amount of shared context and it recently contained a request for advice.
One thing HarryPrime could try is to suggest more ways to restrict himself, that to a normal human would be motivationally horrifying but to HarryPrime are still consistent with his new goal, and proves to Voldemort that he has mostly won already and killing Harry isn't that critical.
Off the top of my head, a sneaky thing Harry might suggest is converting some of the death eaters into guards against Harry's possible resurrection forever... using wording that will indirectly cause them also become x-risk mitigation robots as well.
6) Unlike an AI in the box, Harry is already out of the box in some deep senses. Aside from the time turner, he already has the power to expect anything he wants to expect of Dementors, and thereby cause them to act that way. No wand required.
The only barrier to this is that between him expecting the Dementors to do something and them actually doing it, there will be a period of time where he needs to stay alive, and while he is alive but held at wand-point he might be asked "have you betrayed me yet?" and have to admit that he had, and be killed.
All through chapter 112 Harry's mental state was unprobed and Voldemort was distracted by the costs of arranging the Death Eaters and motivating them to help make and understand the vows and so on. The only time Harry's mind was described by the narrator was during the casting of the unbreakable vow itself, to describe how a new "subscripted should" have come to exist in Harry's brain. All of Chapter 113 seems like a lot of time for some mentally generated effects to have been put in motion.
7) He is a wizard with a wand. All the partial transfiguration stuff other people have mentioned is also relevant :-)
I agree that this task is far "easier task than a standard AI box experiment". I attacked it from a different angle though (HarryPrime can easily and honestly convince Voldemort he is doomed unless HarryPrime helps him).:
http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/lsp/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/c206
Random lines of thought to explore:
Can we figure out how sacrificial magic works from available evidence(we've seen a lot of it recently) and could Harry use that new knowledge to solve his predicament? A principle similar to the potion making principle perhaps?
Harry had to go all the way down to timeless physics in order to do partial transfiguration. I know very little about the theory but could Harry apply that knowledge to somehow partially transfigure time itself or transfigure something not in his present?
If Harry can convince Voldemort to allow him to cast his Patronus(" Maybe I can teach you to cast the Patronus") then he could get a message off to Cedric Diggory telling him to time-turn back, grab the true cloak of invisibility(not sure how, maybe just re-using the rememberall trick), wait till this moment, grab Harry and turn the time turner another hour back(Harry originally only went back 5). Maybe after Harry tried to shoot Voldemort and he was temporarily out of sight with all of his possessions he quickly turned the time turner the remaining one hour which he used to set up Cedric or any number of other plots.
Eliezer's rules say,
I'm not quite sure what that means, does it ban this move?
What unique magics are possible when you combine partial transfiguration and the stone of permanency? Not that Harry could do them now, but he could tell Voldemort about an intended combination or have plans to do one in the future. Remember that apparently the stone doesn't just make transfiguration permanent, apparently it can also make otherwise temporary spells permanent like with the Troll's powers being transferred to Hermione. Also, how is Aunt Petunia's beauty transfiguration permanent? Did Lilly have access to the stone somehow?
Maybe the reason Harry and Voldemort's magic can't interact is because it's the same magic. Could Harry wandlessly begin untransfiguring Voldemort's body or another troll made into a tooth?
Maybe whatever spell trapped Dumbledore outside of time also trapped Atlantis?
I predict (20%) that Harry will snap his fingers.
Here is a suggestion that I haven't seen yet. I don't think it constitutes a full plan by itself, but it fits the form of an AI box experiment with Harry as the AI.
Harry and Voldemort's discussion about testing his horcrux 2.0 spell by offering immortality to one of his friends (read: minions, in his case) revealed a weakness, that Voldemort is heavily biased against certain ways of thinking. Harry should remind him of this in the context of the Patronus 2.0 spell. The fact that Harry was able to discover a new (and incredibly powerful, as we have seen) form of magic simply by having the right mindset may indicate that certain mindsets are key to discovering deeper secrets of magic as a whole. (I'm envisioning here, as may or may not be canon, magic as an API for tapping into the power of Atlantis.) Voldemort has a known interest in the deeper secrets of magic, and for this reason he should keep Harry alive, or risk losing access to mindsets he currently can't fathom.
Oh, interesting. EY just asked his readers to solve an impossible problem. I wonder how many will feel they have enough at stake here to actually pay the mental and emotional tax involved in solving impossible problems, to maintain that awful tension. I mean, at the end of the day, it's a fanfic on the Internet.
I sure hope the problem looks easier to some smarter readers than me, because it's gonna be silly from a promotion-of-rationality angle if the addition of rationality to Harry Potter changes the outcome from "hero wins" to "hero dies and people he cares about get horribly tortured to death".
Partial transfigure air at wand tip into Sarin gas (which I'm sure Harry knows the chemical structure of). Heating it will help it diffuse faster. Hold breath. But not before telling Voldemort something true put possibly useless (like the special power is "love" or something). I'm fairly certain that voldemort would feel the need to respond to this, explaining why it is a stupid answer. You have to inhale to talk. After that, make for the time-turner I guess?
There’s one problem with transfiguring toxic gases: It is unsatisfying from a story perspective, and it would need to kill instantly —
There’s two problems with transfiguring toxic gases: It is unsatisfying from a story perspective, and it would need to kill instantly (since otherwise a coughing Death Eater might still be able to use non-verbal spells to incapacitate Harry), and it would need to hit all —
There’s three problems with transfiguring toxic gases: It is unsatisfying from a story perspective, and it would need to kill instantly (since otherwise a coughing Death Eater might still be able to use non-verbal spells to incapacitate Harry), and it would need to hit all Death Eaters at exactly the same instant (otherwise one DE could still get in a shot, when he sees other DEs dying.)
Maybe Harry needs to solve the nature of magic. Magic acts on human expectations: things happen the way they are expected to happen, within certain rules. Psychological features like intention, emotion, and desire have real effects on the outside world. It seems magic only makes sense in a "human-designed" universe. So the likeliest scenario to HP should be that his universe is a simulation. The limits of Time Turners could be viewed as rules imposed by the simulation-keepers to keep the simulation computable. The Mirror of Erised seems to suggest the same thing. It might be a sub-program baked into the fabric of the simulation to help inhabitants determine their CEV.
There would be an interesting kind of symmetry if Harry's current AI-box problem turns out to be a double-boxing. Will Harry talk himself out of Voldemort's box by warning that they all are in another box?
A problem with this that I see is that Harry's "End of the World" prophecy seems to imply the simulation has a Halting Oracle. I can think of some rationalizations for this, though.
I am the only one quite upset about this and thinking it's mean from Eliezer ? There are at least three kind of reasons that makes me upset :
It breaches an implicit contract between readers and authors. Especially when it's such a long work, each reader has invested literally hundred of hours to get to this point. Asking us to do something to get the real ending, that's already written, at this point is a kind of blackmail. And the only long-term answer to blackmail, as Dumbledore explained in HPMOR, is to not comply.
What purpose does it serve, apart doing harm ? The purposes of HPMOR, in my understanding, are : 1. Bring awareness (and therefore, among other things, money/donations) to MIRI/CFAR. 2. Show people that rationality is awesome so they'll read more about it (ie, the Sequences, books, ...) and therefore "raise the sanity waterline". This undermines 1. by pissing off part of the reader base and making the story suboptimal, and this greatly undermines 2. if the super-rational Harry still fails.
It's not a fair nor fun game at all, because there is so much we don't know about the laws of the settings, so we are reduced to blind guesses. We don't know how fast can Harry transfigure things. We don't know what he can transfigure (antimatter, monofilament, ...). We don't know what's in the moleskin pouch. We don't if he can transfigure while holding a normal conversation in Parseltongue. We don't know if Voldemort can detect him doing transfiguration. And so on. It's like having to devise a plan in a RPG without the stats of your character, without the (numeric) effect of spells/abilites, and without the ability to ask the DM "could my character do X ?". There are many times in HPMOR when things I didn't think should work did work, and otherwise, and it's fine, it's Eliezer's world, he sets the rules. But then, he can't ask us to blind guess a solution to a very hard problem where we don't know the rules of the world.
I can think of a solution, but may not be the solution because it relies on untested extensions of previous mechanisms having to do with "Dementers" which HarryPrime knows to be magical incarnations of death, that obey people's expectations about death. Critically, it depends on how much play he has in the distance and plasticity of dementer control.
My plan probably requires him to have put it into motion during the text we already read. Imagine that when he was surrounded at the end of chapter 112 at this moment, he put his plan into motion:
Right after that, he could have started expecting 40 dementers to arrive at his location without disturbing or being seen by anyone while traveling, so it doesn't change anything already known about the world before he time turned already.
He expects them to arrive in a group, and to kill everyone but him and Hermione, even if he himself has already been killed (this last clause might not work, depending on how the magic about dementer expectation control works). He expects the dementers to travel at a poetically appropriate speed (to help make the expectations plausible enough to happen), so perhaps the speed of a killing curse, which might be approximated by the speed of sound, or ~750 miles per hour.
If Azkaban is 100 miles away (doubtful) they take 8 minutes. If 200 miles (plausible), then 16 minutes. If 300 miles (also possible) then 24 minutes. I think 250 is most reasonable, so 20 minutes is the maximum likelihood for the arrival time? Unless killing curses move faster than sound, in which case earlier?
Azkaban is somewhere "unplottable" in the north sea so a 20 minute delay is reasonable. For strategic reasons, Harry expects the dementers to rendevous at a point far enough away from where he is that Voldemort and the death eaters can't sense the doom aura of the dementers. Then when 40 are ready in a group somewhere moderately close, he expects them to swoop together in at the speed of killing curses and kill everyone but him and Hermione. One for each death eater, and the spares for Voldemort.
To expect this, and expect that it had a good chance of working was a risk, requiring ~20 minutes to pass between starting the expectation and the dementers arriving, but all through chapter 113 he was not asked by Voldemort if he had betrayed Voldemort yet (this probably would count as that), so the risk has already paid off so far...
That chapter, but the way, took approximately 15 minutes and 30 seconds to occur. I read the verbal parts out loud to myself and timed how long it took.
There were bits like this where I generally assumed that it would be perceived as less than a minute (I counted 30 seconds for this line, rather than 60):
If my timing of chapter 113 count is accurate, then starting at the beginning of chapter 114 Harry needs to buy about 4 minutes and 30 seconds of conversation, and then he should expect his enemies to be attacked by dementers at an unusually fast speed.
One potential flaw in the plan is that he may not have started expecting the right things early enough. In chapter 113 this bit of narrator description of Harry's mental state shows up around the 11 minute mark and seems uncharacteristic for someone who expects dementers to show up as expected.
So maybe he grew a spine and a brain right after that, in which case he started expecting dementers 4.5 minutes before the end of 113 and needs to buy more like 15.5 minutes in chapter 114.
So what does he do to buy time? Basically, he starts saying a lot of things that are true and interesting and require responses...
Personally, I think Harry is actually HarryPrime now, and he doesn't care nearly as much about his family and friends as Voldemort thinks, at least not compared to preventing the end of the world.
So I think Harry's first move should be to think for as long as he can get away with. Then say out loud that he can think of five things off the top of his head that might be a power-known-not or other qualifying secret. This buys him time to emit more sentences and come up with more things.
(Things he could say that would make the claim of 5 reasonable include: the secret of patronus 2.0, the secret of dementers, flitwick's tourament curse, partial transfiguration, and the fact that magic is a homozygous recessive trait. But he doesn't list them right off the bat that shortly.)
After stating a number, I think he asks clarifying questions about what counts as a secret, or a power, and offers one thing that might count or might not, which would the idea of setting death eaters under other unbreakable vows (to themselves persist in the prevention of the end of the world after Harry is dead) as an example of a strategically helpful thing Voldemort might not have considered as a possible life saving thing to talk about (this also, btw potentially creates allies for HarryPrime's real new goal which is to prevent the world's destruction without stopping to be nice or fulfill other ideals).
Through his wording, he can honestly communicates that his new life goal, by the way, has in fact been transformed by the unbreakable vow that was just taken and he offers himself in service to Voldemort, conditional on Voldemort wanting to protect the world. He really wants to help.
Also it creates a potential conversational opening for him to say that in pursuit of protection of the world he actually cares more now about learn the wording of the prophesy that relates to the potential end of the world, so that he can be more effective in his world saving. Learning the prophesy is probably related to his new vowed goal.
If Voldemort is unhappy with stalling, and Harry has to get down to brass tacks fast, he let's Voldemort know that the secret of Dementers is one that he has composed a riddle for, for someone else (which he has already done for Hermione so it is in theory possible even though we haven't seen the contents of this riddle on camera yet), but it relies on insights and perspectives that Voldemort might not have and so he needs to ask some questions to restructure the riddle. But doing so could take a while and could be done after other secrets were exchanged for lives. Which order does Voldemort prefer?
If Voldemort wants a patronus 2.0 riddle that is optimized for him, then there are a bunch of potentially relevant things about Voldemort's mind and plans that determine whether and how to construct a riddle personalized to him, like "Can you cast patronus 1.0 and if not, why do you think not?"
It is hard to plan a conversation in detail, because the other person's reactions are always relevant, but I could relatively easily see Harry stretching out a conversation about secrets for a good 20-60 minutes, and somewhere in that conversation, hopefully, the dementers swoop in and maybe kill everyone but Harry and Hermione, or at least it gives Harry a distraction during which he might grab the time turner and escape.
I'd rather get the longer happier ending (though I am curious about the shorter sadder ending). Should I submit this plan to fanfiction as a possible solution, or does it need more polishing?
Skimming over (part of) the proposed solutions on FF.net has thoroughly destroyed any sense of kinship with the larger HPMoR readership. Darn, it was such a fuzzily warm illusion. In concordance with Yvain's latest blog post, there may be few if any general shortcuts to raising the sanity waterline.
Oh my... did Voldemort just magically imbued Harry to do his best to put the whole world into time-frozen stasis in the Mirror?
Though revealing this to LV would not do any good - there is a failure safe mode, namely killing Harry, and if LV learns what he did (apart from pointing out his own stupidity), he has all the motivation to kill Harry right now.
Thinking about AI boxing - note that it is Harry who represents humanity, his core values and goals were not changed that much by the Vow, they were just formalized.
It is LV that has goals that are mostly what we'd agree about (`ensure the continuous existence of the world'), but he has very different values and no moral constraints. In short, dealing with him is like dealing with an Unfriendly AI or an Alien mind (like Sorting Hat).
So this is more like a clash between Unfriendly (or better, Indifferent) and a Friendly AI, where the goals are more or less compatible, but in addition the FAI keeps human values. And the UFAI got there first and is more powerful.
The rational way if your goals are compatible is to cooperate - however, Harry's values almost ensure that he will defect given the chance. And LV knows it, so the rational action for him is to defect (=kill) as well.
Okay, so I like everyone else's comments, but they feel complicated with what I came up with:
Harry convinces himself of #2 enough to say it in parselmouth.
Harry says "I think I understand the prophecy you're trying to avoid, and I believe killing me makes it happen. I would say more, but you'd probably use it to kill me" in parselmouth.
Harry stays silent.