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cousin_it comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 113 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yeah, I was trying to help Harry survive the next minute with high probability, not win the war with high probability. The latter is a harder problem, and it's not enough to have a plan that's based on horcrux hijacking only. If I felt that horcrux hijacking might give me an actual easy win (as opposed to, say, Voldemort killing himself immediately and fighting me within the horcrux system), then I wouldn't mention it, and say something else instead.
I amended the grandparent. Suppose for the sake of argument you agreed with my estimate of this being the proverbial "last, best hope". Then giving away the one potentially game-changing advantage to barter for a globally insignificant "victory" would be the epitome of an overly greedy algorithm. Losing sight of the actual goal because an authority figure told you so, in a way not thinking for yourself beyond the task as stated.
Making that point sounds, on reflection, like exactly the type of thing I'd expect Eliezer to do. Do what I mean, not as I say.
Ocupado. Assuming it was not, even Voldemort would have some sort of reaction latency to such an outside context problem. Assuming he reacted instantly, sounds like better chances than buying a few days of unconsciousness still.