You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

shminux comments on Open thread, Mar. 2 - Mar. 8, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: MrMind 02 March 2015 08:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (155)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: shminux 02 March 2015 07:02:39PM 1 point [-]

Do you believe that the 99.999-percentile by utility-ordered outcome count can be Pascal-mugged? How about 90%? Where is the cut-off?

Comment author: gjm 02 March 2015 08:07:30PM 1 point [-]

I'm not sure this is a useful question. I mean, if you choose the (1-p) quantile (I'm assuming this means something like "truncate the distribution at the p and 1-p quantiles and then take the mean of what's left", which seems like the least-crazy way to do it) then any given Pascal's Mugging becomes possible once p gets small enough. But what I have in mind when I hear "Pascal's Mugging" is something so outrageously improbable that the usual way of dealing with it is to say "eh, not going to happen" and move on (accompanied by a delta-U so outrageously large as to allegedly outweigh that), and I take Houshalter to be suggesting truncating at a not-outrageously-small p, and the two don't really seem to overlap.