Because if you don't literally believe that the ritual will win you useful-in-real-life god's favor, each sacrifice reduces your chances to survive and prosper.
The same could be said about most religious rituals. There are various theories of signalling honesty, in-group commitment, and riches though costly sacrifices.
Why ascribe the change in sacrifices, for example, to a less literal modern religious belief, rather than to a less central role for modern religion, or sacrifice becoming less important compared to other religious behaviors?
If you want to get numbers involved, you first need to specify (with numbers) what does "more literal" mean.
I don't know - gwern talked about more literal ancient beliefs, I only asked what he meant and how he knew it.
The same could be said about most religious rituals.
I don't think this is true. Take contemporary mainstream Christianity or Judaism, as the religions most familiar to LW. Do most rituals meaningfully reduce the chances to survive and prosper?
to a less literal modern religious belief, rather than to a less central role for modern religion
"Less literal" belief and "less central" role are correlated :-)
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