Tenoke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes HPMOR has been generally more believable, except for the one scene that matters in the whole book. At any rate, I am not sure if defeating Voldemort by use of an artefact - the Elder Wand is any less believable than using transfigured nanowires in secret against a much smarter version of Voldemort who forgets to use shields/wards/attention in order to catch harry this one time, and lets him have his wand when he doesn't need it.
I wouldn't make that assumption. There are several chapters left and a bunch of things left unresolved, some of which seem like they could be important. Is he going to make further progress on defeating Death? Will we discover why there's a prophecy that he'll tear apart the stars, empty the skies, and end the world?
Maybe not; there might be nothing left now but wrap-up. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.