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dxu comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: Gondolinian 03 March 2015 06:02PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 March 2015 05:50:47PM 8 points [-]

A lot of people think that Voldemort was going too easy on Harry, making this a "Coil vs. Taylor in the burning building" violation of suspension-of-disbelief for some of them. I am considering rewriting 113 with the following changes:

  • Most Death Eaters are watching the surrounding area, not Harry; Voldemort's primary hypothesis for how Time might thwart him involves outside interference.
  • Voldemort tells Harry to point his wand outward and downward at the ground, then has a Death Eater paralyze Harry (except heart/lungs/mouth/eyes) in that position before the unbreakable Vow. This would also require a retroedit to 15 or 28 to make it clear that Transfiguration does not require an exact finger position on the wand.

Submitting...

Comment author: dxu 06 March 2015 04:29:59PM *  5 points [-]

What I'm uncertain about is what was going through Voldemort's mind at the time. I have no idea what he was thinking when he let Harry keep his wand, and so for me, that part kind of fell flat, especially when it turned out there was no explanation other than, "He was overconfident"... which sounds like an explanation, but isn't one, not really. It's just like saying "magic" or "phlogiston". How does the mokeskin pouch work? "Magic!" What causes fire? "Phlogiston!" Why did Voldemort let Harry keep his wand? "Overconfidence!" For me, that just isn't specific enough of an explanation to actually allow me to make predictions. My model of Voldemort can't receive "overconfidence" as an argument and spit out the action "let Harry keep his wand"; the argument isn't well-specified enough. How was he overconfident? What was his exact train of thought? As Harry put it in 108:

"It was, but..." Harry said. "Um. The laws governing what constitutes a good explanation don't talk about plausible excuses you hear afterward. They talk about the probabilities we assign in advance. That's why science makes people do advance predictions, instead of trusting explanations people come up with afterward. And I wouldn't have predicted in advance for you to follow Snape and show up like that. Even if I'd known in advance that you could put a trace on Snape's wand, I wouldn't have expected you to do it and follow him just then. Since your explanation didn't make me feel like I would have predicted the outcome in advance, it remained an improbability. I started to wonder if Sprout's mastermind might have arranged for you to show up, too. And then I realised the note to myself hadn't really come from future-me, and that gave it away completely."

Since the explanation "overconfidence" didn't make me feel like I would have predicted Voldemort's actions in advance, it remained an improbability.

I'm not suggesting for you to add a scene from Voldemort's point of view into Chapter 113 or something--that would be a jarring shift in perspective, IMO. (Although it would be nice if you could somehow give a hint at Voldemort's motives--I particularly liked Luke_A_Somers' suggestion.) That being said, I am curious: what was your model of Voldemort thinking when you had him let Harry keep his wand? If not too inconvenient, could you elaborate on what you were modeling Voldemort's thoughts as?

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