CellBioGuy comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 116 - Less Wrong Discussion
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This story will collapse after a very few prior incantums on Quirrelmort's wand by the investigators.
Yeah, and not just that. The magical equivalents to forensic science would have to be terrible indeed if this works, with a lot of fail from intelligent people like Bones, Moody, or for that matter Snape.
I'm kinda hoping that what we're actually heading for in the next chapters will be some kind of payoff to this:
PS. I wonder what an analytic charm cast on Harry's "bleeding" scar would show.
Yup. Part of my justifications to Harry setting the stage in 115 were (from right before this):
Last spell cast with Quirrell's wand was the acid for the plant.
Was just about to ask where the switchover occurred.
There was an AK before then, as well as infuriating (?) fluffy.
That won't look good.
The can only check the very last spell.
They will have to find the wand first:
QuirrelMort's wand is in Quirrel's hand.
Voldemorts wand is the one that Harry took.
Iff there is an investigation.
Given what we know about the wizarding world, I’m not so sure that there will be one.
And let's not forget the kind of people who seem to be doing the investigating around here: "Burnt corpse? Roof of the house blown off? Baby with scar on forehead? Must have been the first ever Killing Curse backfire."
Dumbledore was the one who investigated that...
But the facts I listed were publically available, and apparently that's the best conclusion anyone else could draw. (and we know Dumbledore didn't tell anyone his conclusion, because even Moody didn't know)
Since Dumbledore didn't give anyone else access to an undisturbed scene, it's merely the best conclusion that anyone could draw who wasn't an actual professional investigator / smart person.
Actual professional investigators would know not to come to any conclusion without actually investigating the scene. (Whether or not they trusted Dumbledore to investigate is a different matter.)
Smart people would think:
And he had very good reason to not release his true hypothesis to the public.