The complete disappearance of flight MH370 without warning and without a trace the day before says update your priors at least for the short-term.

I think you're right.

It's because we have no idea what happened that I would worry more than usual. It's not that we had no information, but that the reams of information we had wasn't adding up. Airliners are known as targets to attack by hostile agents, and a mystery disappearance seems more likely caused by an intelligent agent than unthinking causes. Intelligent agents will hit and hit again before their means of attack are found out and countered.